Bedtime MMA focuses on matchmaking, UFC breakdowns and predictions.
Scorecard
Called 121 of 171 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
121 of 171 — 71% now, from 100% at their first scored card.
-
Method
63% 56 of 89 correct winners that named a method
-
Round
38% 10 of 26 correct winners that named a round
-
Underdog
48% 16 of 33 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 332 11 hit · 2 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 7 hit · 5 miss
- Silva vs. Delgado 13 hit · 0 miss
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 9 hit · 4 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 7 hit · 6 miss
- UFC 330 9 hit · 2 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 6 hit · 3 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 6 hit · 2 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 7 hit · 3 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 329 11 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Baku 4 hit · 6 miss
- Kape vs Horiguchi 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 4 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 328 7 hit · 6 miss
- UFC 327 2 hit · 4 miss
- UFC Seattle 5 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 298 12 hit · 0 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 333
Volkanovski vs. Evloev
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs Evloev | Volkanovski · Dec | Upcoming | Volkanovski | Dec | Not called |
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
- Method Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soldić · KO/TKO · R1 | Soldić · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Bedtime favors Soldic’s more technical striking and left-hand counter, expecting him to draw reactions from Williams and land the knockout shot. He picks a first-round finish but worries about Williams’s knockout power and how Soldic will handle his UFC debut. “going to pick him to win this one by round one KO.” * He remains concerned that Williams could knock Soldic out. | |||||
| Hernandez · Dec | Hernandez · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime expects Hernandez to attack dos Anjos’s lead leg with calf kicks in their southpaw matchup. He expects Hernandez’s movement to avoid the body kicks and make dos Anjos’s takedowns harder to complete. He also favors Hernandez’s conditioning against the older dos Anjos and picks a 30–27 decision rather than a knockout. He acknowledges that dos Anjos could still catch Hernandez in a submission. “Uh, I think that Hernandez is going to win this fight. I think it's going to be a decision.” | |||||
| Talbott · Sub · R3 | Talbott · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Bedtime expects Talbott’s volume, body work, knees and elbows to wear Figueiredo down. He allows for early takedown success from Figueiredo but expects Talbott’s physicality and grappling to produce a third-round submission.
“going to pick Pton Talbot. I'm going to say Payton Talba by round three submission.” | |||||
| Kopylov · Dec | Kopylov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime favors Kopylov’s footwork, comfort fighting on the back foot and body/head kicks, then his ability to mix in grappling as the fight develops. He expects Kopylov to survive Gautier’s early power and wrestle in the later rounds, but warns that Gautier can punish predictable takedown entries with knees.
“I'm going to go with Roman Copilov by decision.” | |||||
| Green · Dec | Ribovics · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime favors Green’s boxing and jab against Ribovics’s aggressive bursts. He also expects Green to mix in takedowns if needed, while acknowledging Ribovics’s kicks, a possible early round for Ribovics and the danger that Green gets hurt. “picking Bobby Green by [ __ ] decision.” | |||||
| Nolan · KO/TKO | Nolan · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime backs Nolan’s boxing, speed and damaging strikes, expecting him to see and stop McGee’s takedown attempts. He acknowledges McGee’s grappling threat but expects Nolan to win by knockout.
“Jesus I'm going to go with Eric Nolan by KO.” | |||||
| Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Bedtime favors Pinas’s measured striking, accuracy and defensive reads. He expects a straight right hand to catch Pulyaev as he retreats with his chin raised and picks Pinas by second-round knockout. “I'm going with Damen Penos by round 2 KO.” | |||||
| Coria · Dec | Rodriguez · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime favors Coria’s jab and more technical boxing, along with his ability to scramble back up after takedowns. He expects Coria to take over in the third round and edge a 29–28 decision, while respecting Rodriguez’s power and wrestling.
“I'm picking Alden Corier by decision.” | |||||
| Silva · Sub | Silva · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime expects Silva’s movement, kicks and check hook to control the distance as Wang presses forward. He sees Silva using a clinch trip and her grappling advantage to submit Wang, while recognizing Wang’s first-round knockout threat.
“like I said, my final pick, round two or three, submission.” | |||||
| Smith · KO/TKO · R1 | Smith · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Bedtime expects Smith’s power and wrestling to overwhelm Whitehead. He sees a body-lock takedown or slam leading to an early finish, including ground-and-pound.
“picking Jacobe Smith by brutal KO.” | |||||
| Naurdiev · Dec | Naurdiev · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime expects Naurdiev to edge a 29–28 decision because he sees Vettori as too inactive and lacking damaging offense. He doubts Vettori’s takedowns will produce sustained control, while acknowledging that Naurdiev tiring could open a submission opportunity for Vettori. “I think Nerdy is going to win by decision. 2928.” | |||||
| Walker · Dec | Walker · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime expects Walker’s activity, calf kicks and bigger moments to earn him a 29–28 decision. He also sees possible grappling opportunities but acknowledges Walker’s defensive weaknesses and the risk that Parkin knocks him out. “picking Johnny Walker by decision.” | |||||
| Wint · Sub · R1 | Wint · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Bedtime expects Armand to try to hold Wint against the cage, but expects Wint to take him down and submit him. He expresses strong confidence because he does not rate Armand as ready for this level of opposition.
“Anthony Wint by like round one submission.” | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to win | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · to win | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · to win | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Moicano vs Ortega | Ortega · to win | Upcoming | Ortega | Not called | Not called |
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · Dec | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by decision. “I'm going to go with Edmen Shahbazyan by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · Dec | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Joanderson Brito by decision. “We're going to go with Joanderson Brito to win the decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · Dec | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Casey O'Neill by decision. “I'm going to go with Casey O'Neal. I think she's probably going to win this by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Silva vs. Delgado
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 13
- Method Accuracy 83.3% 10 2
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · Dec | Tarin · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Regina Tarin by Decision. “Honestly, I'm gonna go with Tarin to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. King · to win | King · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Sean King III. “I'm going to go with Sean King to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · Dec | Rongzhu · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Rongzhu by Decision. “I'm going to say Rongzhu wins this one by decision, but it's close.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Gantt · Sub · R2 | Gantt · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Tommy Gantt by Submission in round 2. “I think Tommy Gantt is going to win this fight by submission in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · Dec | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by Decision. “I'm going to go with Yousri Belgaroui to win this by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKO · R2 | Bahamondes · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2. “We're going with Ignacio Bahamondes by round-two knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · Dec | Elliott · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Tim Elliott by Decision. “I think Tim Elliott's going to win this by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Martinez · Dec | Martinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks David Martinez by Decision. “We're going to go with Martinez to win that by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Blaydes · Dec | Blaydes · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Curtis Blaydes by Decision. “I trust him to win this by decision. I'm going with Curtis Blaydes.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Grasso · Dec | Grasso · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Alexa Grasso by Decision. “I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · Dec | McMillen · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Tommy McMillen by Decision. “I think Tommy McMillen's going to win this by 29-28 decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Moreno · Dec | Moreno · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Brandon Moreno by Decision. “I do think Moreno is going to win this by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · Sub · R3 | Silva · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Jean Silva by Submission in round 3. “I think Jean turns it up in the third and gets the submission. I'm going to go with Jean Silva by submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 69.2% 9 4
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Montenegro · Dec | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Montenegro's forward pressure and aggression nullifying Benouaich's cleaner striking over three rounds. “we're going to be picking Sofia to win this one by unanimous decision 29-28.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Sub | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Campbell's kicking and takedown game to break down a Peek returning from injury, ending in a choke. “I think Pink Panther just takes him down, gets on his back, eventually locks up a rear naked choke. We're going with Pink Panther to win this one. So, we're going to go with Curtis Campbell.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Lima · to win | Lima · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Felipe Lima to win, but hedges between a decision and a possible knockout; method is therefore left unset. “more well-rounded. So, we're going to go with Felipe Lima to win that one by decision, maybe a crazy KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Syguła · to win | Cornolle · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Syguła as younger and more mobile, with a better path to takedowns against a largely stationary Cornolle. “I'm going to be going with Segurola to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.6%. Soriano · KO/TKO | Donchenko · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Donchenko's style but reads his defence as too loose against Soriano's straight left and wrestling threat. “I'm picking Punah Soraniano.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · to win | Duclos · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rates Duclos' reach and counter-striking as the tool to catch a chin-up, square-standing Dias. “going to go with Duduco to win this one by KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 19.2%. Hooker · KO/TKO · R3 | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Believes the line undersells Hooker's chin, cardio and full camp, and expects him to weather an early Parnasse push and finish late. “I think Dan Hooker is going to win by a third round TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 19.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKO | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Keita's power and counter timing to punish an increasingly aggressive Naimov. “I'm going to say Loik Kietza wins by round two or three KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.1%. Page · Dec | Page · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Thinks Page's cagey low-output style is hard to solve on the feet and doubts Ruziboev forces the grappling he needs. “I am going to pick MVP. I think he's going to win by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Pinto · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
High on Pinto's activity and finishing instinct, expecting a finish either on the mat or on the feet. “Batman, don't matter. Pinto in two.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Bukauskas · KO/TKO · R2 | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Distrusts Sy's grappling entries after a prior submission loss and backs Bukauskas' takedown defence and right hand. “going with Modestas Bukauskas to win this one by round two TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Andrusca · KO/TKO | Andrusca · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Andrusca's accurate boxing to catch Wood on the way out of an exchange; states it as a gut read off the tape. “I'm thinking Andruschka flukes a KO here in the second or third.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.9%. Sola · Dec | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Sola to out-work Ziam in the clinch and cage exchanges he considers Ziam's weakest area. “I'm going to go with Axel Sala to win this one by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 53.8% 7 6
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Asakura · KO/TKO · R1 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout. “Kai Asakura wins this by round one KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by decision. “I'm going to go with Andre Lima by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1 | Liu · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout. “I'm going to pick Liu Ce by round one KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Hasan · KO/TKO · R1 | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Bilal Hasan by first-round head-kick knockout. “Bilal Hasan, round one head-kick KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · KO/TKO | Woodson · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO while acknowledging a decision remains possible. “I'm going to say Jack Jenkins by TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Julia Polastri by decision. “I'm going to go with Julia to win by decision. 29-28.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Ding · KO/TKO | Nelson · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ding Meng for a knockout, placing it around the round-one/round-two boundary. “I'm going to go with Ding Mang to win, probably by knockout. Late first, early second.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · Dec | Song · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision. “He obviously wins this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · Dec | Sumudaerji · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji by decision. “I think Sumudaerji wins by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tsuruya · KO/TKO · R2 | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya for a second-round ground-and-pound stoppage. “Rei Tsuruya, TKO via ground and pound in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · Dec | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiao Long by decision. “Long Xiao by decision, maybe by submission, but I'm going to say by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision. “I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · to win | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui as the more well-rounded fighter without fixing a method. “I'm going to go with Lawrence Louie to win this one 'cause he's a little bit more well-rounded.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 81.8% 9 2
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Dec | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Orolbai's pressure and takedowns to wear Wells down for a decision. “I'm going to go with Mike Trizano Oralbay.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Magny · Dec | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Magny's physical advantages and takedowns in a unanimous decision. “I got to go with Neil Magny. I think Neil Magny is going to get takedowns.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · Dec | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Fernando's jab, calf kicks and reach for a clear decision. “I am going to go with Fernando to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Gore · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Gore to win but the captions make the later method call unreliable, so this is recorded winner-only. “I am going to go with Tresean Gore to win this one.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Johnson, while treating potential finish scenarios as conditional rather than a committed method call. “I'm going to go with Donte Johnson to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Turner · KO/TKO · R1 | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Calls Turner by first-round knockout. “days. The way this guy [ __ ] broke down Harry Hardwick. I think about it down Harry Hardwick. I think about it like this, man. Jalin Turner, I'm going like this, man. Jalin Turner, I'm going to go with him. I do think that there's to go with him. I do think that there's enough time in the first round for him enough time in the first round for him to land something big and hurt Fernandes” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Njokuani · Dec | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Njokuani to win a decision over Álvarez. “I'm going to go with Chidi Njokuani to win this.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO · R1 | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Calls Ribovics by first-round TKO. “I think round one TKO for Esteban Ribovics.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Abdul-Malik by second-round knockout. “I think that Abdul Malik is probably going to KO him in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · Sub | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Dern by submission but names either round two or three, so no single round is recorded. “I'm going to go with Mackenzie Dern by round two or three submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Makhachev to win a decision, projecting close scorecards. “with Islam Makhachev to win this fight. I think that it's going to be a decision for Islam Makhachev.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · KO/TKO | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Salkilld to eventually hurt and stop Gamrot inside two rounds, so a window rather than a single round. “he's going to eventually hurt and KO Gamrot. So, give me Kwellin Salkeld inside three inside two rounds.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Quarantillo · Dec | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Quarantillo on the scorecards. “Billy Q is kind of meeting him in the middle. They're trading. And I do think that Billy Q will have better volume, better speed, better output. I think that he gets this one done by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · Sub · R1 | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Thinks Elkins should be retired and that the younger, more durable del Valle takes him down and finishes it early. “Yair Delval is going to win this. Darren Elkins should probably be retired. I think this is going to be a round one submission for Yair Delval.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Miller by knockout but hedges between a late first and a second round, so no round is recorded. “it's not a necessarily super easy fight for Ty Miller, but I think he's going to win this one by KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Thainara to win a decision. “We're going to go with Alexa Tonara to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland on the scorecards. “He's doing all types of stuff like Louis Sutherland low-key was in his bag against Tai Tuivasa, dude. So, I'm going to go with Louis Sutherland to win this one by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R3 | Asplund · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by a third-round standing TKO. “know, blobbing and uh just finding a TKO. I'm going to go with Steven Aspen, bro. All right, man. Next fight of the night. Speaking of jiggling at range, we” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Miranda by knockout, hedging between the second and third round. “I'm going with Manuel Souza to win this one by knockout in the second or third round.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller, hedging between a submission and a decision. “I'm going to say it's Julianna Miller either wins this by submission or wins this by very clear grappling decision, depending on how she performs.” | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R2 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Rates Medic's real KO power and finishing instinct over Rodriguez's volume boxing, and sees the lead-side front kick to the body bringing D-Rod's hands down for an uppercut. “entertainment is really here for this card. And I think this main event is card. And I think this main event is going to be fireworks. I'm going to go going to be fireworks. I'm going to go with Uros Medis by round two KO. Um, with Uros Medis by round two KO. Um, when I break down both of them, I think when I break down both of them, I think D-Rod, D-Rod, um, I don't know what people are um, I don't know what people are commenting on my video, but anyways, commenting on my video, but anyways, D-” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Argues Blachowicz has not actually declined — competitive against Ulberg, Guskov and Pereira — and that Stirling lacks Ulberg's one-shot power, especially on short notice. “[ __ ] believe me, gang. I picked Yanlohovich to beat Israel Adosana and Yanlohovich to beat Israel Adosana and after reviewing the tape I think I'm after reviewing the tape I think I'm going to pick Yanlohic to beat Navajo going to pick Yanlohic to beat Navajo Sterling. I think that he's going to win Sterling. I think that he's going to win a crafty decision. I could weirdly see a crafty decision. I could weirdly see Navajo Sterling just destroying him. I Navajo Sterling just destroyi” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · Dec | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees a clear striking and speed edge for Rakic plus leg kicks and takedowns, with Tybura fading badly into the later rounds. Openly flags Rakic's chin as the one way it goes wrong. “Rockic versus Marching Tiber, mate. You know the thing about Marching Tyber, know the thing about Marching Tyber, mate, he could [ __ ] pull this off. mate, he could [ __ ] pull this off. You know, I'm gonna go with Rockic by You know, I'm gonna go with Rockic by decision, but I'm not fully confident. decision, but I'm not fully confident. Like I I I I I I I my brain is telling Like I I I I I I I my brain is telling me obviously you pick [ __ ] Alexander me obviousl” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Sub | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls Valentin the more dynamic and dangerous fighter and expects him to hurt Todorovic with a combination and then find a guillotine off a panic shot or take the back. “gets is you're getting a middleweight prospect sliming you out cold on a prospect sliming you out cold on a pay-per-view prelim. Uh I am going to go pay-per-view prelim. Uh I am going to go with Robert Valentine. I think he's with Robert Valentine. I think he's going to win this one by submission. I going to win this one by submission. I feel like overall he's just a little bit feel like overall he's just a little bit more dynamic. I feel like both of these more dynamic. I feel like both of thes” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Urbina · to win | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes the big underdog purely on distrust of Cepo, whom he calls a strategy-free hook-swinger not worth 3-to-1 odds, versus Urbina's known UFC level and straight punches. Explicitly says he is not confident. “god. I almost want to pick Gilbert Obina here, dude. here, dude. Do I [ __ ] do it? Do I [ __ ] do it? I'm going to pick Gilbert Obina, dude. I'm going to pick Gilbert Obina, dude. I'm going to [ __ ] pick him. I don't I'm going to [ __ ] pick him. I don't care. I I I'm concerned. I mean, care. I I I'm concerned. I mean, obviously, yes, he got chinned in his obviously, yes, he got chinned in his last two and he lost to Medic. It's not last two and he lost ” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Believes Elliott's wrestling will not land on the bigger, more physically gifted Oliveira, who controls range behind the jab and counters patiently. “You know what I'm saying, dude? Like, Oan Elliot, it was nice having you Oan Elliot, it was nice having you around. You know, listen, I I'm picking Michael Olivera by KO. I I I I'm picking Michael Olivera by KO. I I I do feel like, listen, here's this is do feel like, listen, here's this is what I'll say. I think Oan Elliot can what I'll say. I think Oan Elliot can actually do good in this matchup. I feel actually do good in this matchup. I feel like this is going to be one of those like this is” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gives Klein the speed, accuracy and kicking-game edge, and notes Musayev was repeatedly rocked by the southpaw one-two against Bahamondes. “turn out to be all good across the board, especially the main event." We'll board, especially the main event." We'll talk about that in a second. I am going talk about that in a second. I am going to go with Lud Vit Klein to win this to go with Lud Vit Klein to win this one. I'm going to say he wins this by one. I'm going to say he wins this by decision. I think that he has a striking decision. I think that he has a striking advantage here. I I think especially in advantage here. I I think espec” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Frames it as striker vs grappler where Buzukja's chin is the bigger liability, and trusts Grad's chained takedowns and control. “a crafty little bedtime mustache as well. I'm liking what I'm seeing from well. I'm liking what I'm seeing from Bogdan Groud. I'm going to go with him Bogdan Groud. I'm going to go with him to win this one by decision. Okay, we to win this one by decision. Okay, we are all fans of Bogdan Grod. We will all are all fans of Bogdan Grod. We will all be tuning in at 11:00 a.m. uh whatever be tuning in at 11:00 a.m. uh whatever time it is to watch this fight. Um and time it is to watch this fight. Um ” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. “throne. All right, we're picking Maravan Ankal live. I'm going to go with Ank by” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · to win | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Rizvan Kuniev as the full-card pick in this preview. “also going to struggle to take this guy. I'm going to go with Kunv by decision. I” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview. “skin tone or whatever. Anyway, I'm going to move on. I'm going to pick Axel Solar” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Petersen · Dec | Walker · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Thomas Petersen by decision in a deliberately contrarian call. “you know what, bro? I'm gonna go with Thomas Peterson by decision. I am,” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Tuchalov as the full-card pick in this preview. “lot of this. Um I'm going to go with Tushelov to win this one by KO in the” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Erceg · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Steve Erceg for his cleaner striking, size and reach against Temirov. “size and reach advantage. And one reason I'm going to pick Steve is he's not” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview. “getting the W in this one. We're going to be picking Sam Patterson. I'm going” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to win | Vagaev · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview. “this. All right, dude. I'm gonna go with Vagv by decision. I'm not very” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview. “when he would KO people. I am going to go with Dustin Jacobe, though. Come on” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abdul Hussein as the full-card pick in this preview. “Abdul Hussein making his UFC debut. And I'm going to go with Hussein to win this” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 47.5%. Elliot · Dec | Elliot · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Elliot's size and striking edge, expecting him to avoid Anderson's ground game and win mainly on the feet over three rounds. “with Ezra Elliott to win this one though” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 8 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees moments for McGregor but expects Holloway's volume and cardio to take over in the championship rounds. The five-year layoff is the decisive factor — McGregor burns himself out chasing an early finish that never comes, and Holloway stops him around rounds three or four. “I do think there'll be moments here for McGregor, but I'm going to say we get like a round three or four TKO from Max Holloway.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gun to his head, sides with Bautista over Sandhagen. Bautista has improved significantly since their 2019 first meeting and his grappling and footwork evolution make him the more dangerous fighter now. Picks Bautista to outwork Sandhagen over three rounds and announce his title run. “I'm going to go with Mario Bautista to win this one by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Thinks Kavanagh's kickboxing and chin are genuine problems for a Royval who's coming off back-to-back losses. Believes Kavanagh can keep it standing, weather Royval's chaos, and grind out a decision — though acknowledges Royval's submission game makes it competitive. “I'm probably going to go with Kavanagh by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees Steveson as a heavily protected but legitimate heavyweight prospect, citing his boxing, elite wrestling base, and the matchup placement as signals that the UFC expects him to win cleanly. Picks Steveson to knock Ellison out. “Gable Steveson, great prospect at heavyweight. He's going to win this fight. He's going to knock this dude out.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · to win | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Treats Whittaker's prelim placement as the strange part of the booking, not the matchup itself. His early read is that Whittaker is the cleaner fighter and should comfortably outclass Krylov, while leaving a fuller breakdown for closer to fight week. “Robert Whittaker being on the prelims. I think he's going to piece up Nikita Krylov.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Cortez · Dec | Wang · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Tracy Cortez by decision despite expecting Wang Cong to punish some clinch and takedown entries with elbows and knees. He thinks Cortez's chin, cardio, wrestling and top-position ground-and-pound let her bank enough control and damage for a close 29-28. “I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez to win in by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls it close and expects Kai Kamaka to have moments, but leans Luke Riley by 29-28 decision. He thinks Riley's light movement, speed, body work and left hook make Kamaka's calf-kick game harder to establish over three rounds. “We're going to go with Luke Riley by 29-28 decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yanez · KO/TKO | Yanez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Adrian Yanez by knockout because he no longer trusts Garbrandt's low-output style to keep up. He expects Yanez's combination boxing, jab and counters to back Garbrandt toward the fence and create the damaging right-hand or uppercut moments. “I'm going with Adrian Yanez by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Ryan Gandra by first-round knockout because he expects Gandra's pressure and real punching power to force Zachary Reese into exchanges. He respects Reese's length and kicking game, but thinks Reese is hittable once opponents close distance and does not have enough stopping power to keep Gandra off him. “I'm going to say that Ryan Goundrey wins this one by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls the opener closer than the market tone suggests and admits he nearly picked Durden. He still sides with Costa because the calf kicks, power, BJJ threats and harder pocket shots should offset Durden's pressure and wrestling looks. “I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Dec | Basharat · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Acknowledges Garza's short-notice boxing upside and says Garza may have real moments pressuring Basharat. He still picks Basharat by a close 29-28 because the mobility, stance switching, kick setups, experience and fight IQ should carry enough rounds. “I'm going to go with Fared Bash to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Backs Damian Pinas by round-two knockout while acknowledging Almeida as a skilled kickboxer who may start well. The read is that Pinas' length, explosiveness and straight right eventually find Almeida during a mostly striking fight. “I'm going to go with Damen Penas by round two knockout” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Paddy Pimblett by submission while admitting Saint Denis' pressure and clinch work are dangerous early. His argument is that Saint Denis' takedown entries play into Pimblett's defensive grappling, reversals and submission threats, and that Pimblett can weather the early storm before finishing in a scramble. “I'm picking Paddy Pimblett by submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Baku
Fiziev vs. Torres
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Nascimento · to win | Abdullayev · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime sides with Nascimento as the more explosive fighter who has faced stronger recent opposition and can force Abdullayev backward early.
“not there. I'm going to go with Nascimento to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Almakhan · Dec | Matsumoto · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime takes Almakhan by damage-based decision, trusting his boxing power and counter moments to matter more than Matsumoto's pressure.
“I'm going to go with Beex Alakan in this one. I'm going to go with him by decision” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Donchenko · KO/TKO | Donchenko · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime backs Donchenko's forward pressure, body work and heavier boxing to break down a short-notice Berggren who relies more on kicks and space. “I'm going to go with Donchenko to win this one by TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO | Ofli · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime dislikes the matchup for Ofli and expects Reyes' physicality and power to find the TKO despite not rating Reyes especially highly. “So I'm going to go with Javier Reyes by TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Hasanov · Dec | Hasanov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime takes Hasanov by decision, expecting him to survive Nolan's early boxing threat and bank the fight with takedowns, ground-and-pound and elbows. “I'm going to go with Hasanov by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO · R2 | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime fades Magomedov's durability and cardio, expecting Oleksiejczuk's pressure to take over late and produce a second-round TKO. “I'm going to go with Oleksiejczuk by round two or three TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Aliskerov · to win | Aliskerov · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime sides with Aliskerov because he can match Ferreira's power while also bringing the better wrestling and structure if the fight gets chaotic. “I'm going to go with Ikram Aliskerov to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Almabayev · Dec | Almabayev · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime picks Almabayev by decision, expecting the grappling and control to carry the minutes while acknowledging Johnson's late chaos threat. “I'm going to go with Almabayev by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Sadykhov · Dec | Camilo · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime takes Sadykhov by decision, trusting his doggedness, boxing and cardio to outlast Camilo after any early danger. “I'm going to go with Sadikov by decision” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Torres · KO/TKO | Fiziev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime takes Torres by knockout, arguing his size, reach, forward boxing and finishing instinct can break through Fiziev's kicking range before the later rounds. “I'm going to go with Manel Torres to win this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Kape vs Horiguchi
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Horiguchi · Dec | Kape · TKO (punches) R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Horiguchi to win an extended fight by mixing his right hand with takedowns and lowering Kape's output. “So I'm going to go with Kyoji Horiguchi to win this main event by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R2 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He expects Gaethje to fight patient and movement-heavy like the second Poirier fight (calf kicks, lateral movement, clinch ties to extend it), but believes Topuria is too hard to hit cleanly. Topuria may look bad early reading Gaethje, then in round two make a read and land something brutal.
“He will find something brutal and KO Justin Gaethje in the second round, badly.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · Dec | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He calls it the trickiest fight on the card and admits Gane has the size, reach and skill to win, but says Gane has the lowest fight IQ he's seen and will sabotage himself. He expects Pereira more comfortable in the pocket and a close decision, maybe via a Gane mistake.
“I'm going to go with Alex Pereira by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · Dec | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
He thinks O'Malley styles on Zahabi with oblique kicks, body front-kicks, jab and straight punches against Zahabi's pressure-boxing. He credits Zahabi's kicks and toughness and a viable takedown threat, but expects O'Malley to defend, threaten guillotines and win clearly.
“I'm going to say Sean O'Malley masterclass decision 30-27.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
He dismisses Lewis as a flat-footed puncher who flops around at range, and sees Hokit as the better athlete in cardio, striking, grappling, heart and fight IQ. He expects Hokit to melt Lewis on the fence or take him down for a first-round TKO; Lewis's only path is a fluke overhand.
“I'm picking Josh by round one TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R3 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
He calls Chandler washed and expects Ruffy to systematically break him down. Chandler may find early success with kicks and pressure, but as he loses composure and abandons the game plan, Ruffy counters with uppercuts, knees and straight rights and finishes with ground-and-pound in the third.
“I'm going to say Mauricio Rufi by round three TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · KO/TKO · R2 | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
He admits he wanted to pick Daukaus — better jiu-jitsu, a real sweep and submission path — but thinks Daukaus lacks the athleticism to pressure Nickal the way Rakhmonov did. He expects an early blast double, the takedown threat established, then a level-change overhand for a round-two TKO.
“I'm going to go with Bo Nickal by round two KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 40.5%. Garcia · Dec | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He flips from expecting Garcia to get outclassed: after watching tape he thinks Garcia — a long, lanky southpaw with nasty boxing and reach — out-strikes Lopes. The length helps Garcia see takedowns coming and pile up body and straight shots while Lopes hunts one big shot.
“Steve Garcia is going to pull this one off by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. * He flags it himself as a 'crazy pick.' | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 53.8% 7 6
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · Sub · R3 | Strickland · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Chimaev's grappling is too much for Strickland to stop — a round-three submission, in the mould of Khabib–McGregor. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Van · Dec | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Van's forward pressure and boxing take momentum as the championship rounds wear on, for a decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · Dec | Volkov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
A close one, but Volkov's reach and the style matchup edge a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Buckley · KO/TKO · R3 | Brady · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Buckley builds his takedown defense round by round and catches Brady late for a third-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · Dec | Green · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Green out-boxes Stephens and counter-punches his way to a unanimous decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ochoa · Dec | Ochoa · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime picks Ochoa by decision, citing his UFC-tested level, power, grappling and youth against a Carpenter coming off two losses. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Susurkaev · Dec | Susurkaev · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Bedtime picks Susurkaev by decision, trusting his grappling, front kicks and power while noting he may showboat enough to let Santos survive. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Sabatini · Dec | Sabatini · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime picks Sabatini by decision, expecting his takedowns, scrambling and back control to bank rounds against a technical but lower-power Gomis. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Tulio · to win | Kopylov · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime picks Tulio, expecting his forward pressure, speed and power to make Kopylov back up before any late head-kick danger materializes. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Gordon · Dec | Miller · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime picks Gordon by decision because he sees the better boxing and enough wrestling defense to survive Miller's veteran grappling moments. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Rębecki · KO/TKO | Dawson · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime picks Rebecki, expecting his pressure, hooks and refusal to accept bottom position to punish Dawson before Dawson can settle into control. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Álvarez · KO/TKO | Amosov · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Bedtime switches to Alvarez, seeing his length, jab, front kicks and submission threat as the tools that can blunt Amosov's wrestling and set up a late finish. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Gautier · KO/TKO | Gautier · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime picks Gautier, expecting an easy pressure finish once he backs Diaz to the fence and lets the right hand go. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Procházka · KO/TKO | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Jiri weathers the early storm, walks Ulberg down and finishes late with a TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · Dec | Costa · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Azamat is quicker and lands the bigger punches for a 29-28 decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Blaydes · to win | Hokit · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Hokit is too much too soon; Blaydes stuffs the takedowns and wins. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R1 | Reyes · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Walker's head moves into bad spots; Reyes lands a first-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 47.0%. Landwehr · KO/TKO | Swanson · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Landwehr cockroaches his way through, pours on late pressure and finds a TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Radtke · Dec | Radtke · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA picks Charles Radtke by decision. “I’m going to be going with Charles Radtke to get this one done by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Padilla vs Mederos | Padilla · Dec | Decision | Padilla | Dec | Not called |
UFC Seattle
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Pyfer · KO/TKO | Pyfer · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Doesn't believe Adesanya still has it; switches off his Adesanya pick and takes Pyfer to KO him inside two rounds. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · Dec | Grasso · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Grasso is now the one being picked apart at range; Barber gets revenge for a 29-28 decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · Sub | Chiesa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
However reluctantly — Chiesa takes Price down and submits him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO | Douglas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Douglas's composed counter-striking and takedown defense set up a KO of Erosa. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Belgaroui · Dec | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Belgaroui out-boxes Abdul-Malik at range with a cleaner jab for a close 29-28 decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. McKinney · Sub · R1 | McKinney · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
McKinney ducks an overhand and takes the back for a first-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 298
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 12
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick · to win | Maverick · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Miranda Maverick (winner only). | |||||
| Elliott · to win | Elliott · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Oban Elliott (winner only). | |||||
| Barlow · to win | Barlow · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Danny Barlow (winner only). | |||||
| Zhang · to win | Zhang · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Mingyang Zhang (winner only). | |||||
| Nakamura · to win | Nakamura · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Rinya Nakamura (winner only). | |||||
| Lima · to win | Lima · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Marcos Rogério de Lima (winner only). | |||||
| Lemos · to win | Lemos · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Amanda Lemos (winner only). | |||||
| Hernandez · to win | Hernandez · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Anthony Hernandez (winner only). | |||||
| Dvalishvili · to win | Dvalishvili · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Merab Dvalishvili (winner only). | |||||
| Machado Garry · to win | Machado Garry · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Ian Machado Garry (winner only). | |||||
| Whittaker · to win | Whittaker · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Robert Whittaker (winner only). | |||||
| Topuria · to win | Topuria · KO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only). | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Bedtime MMA's logged calls.


















