UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Francesco Nuzzi defeats Xiao Long by KO/TKO

Loss Xiao Long 27-12-0
Win Francesco Nuzzi 12-2-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 1 · 1:00

Xiao Long vs Nuzzi — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Francesco Nuzzi defeated Xiao Long by TKO (strikes).

The finish came at 1:00 of Round 1.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Xiao Long

Xiao Long has thirty-eight professional fights and nine submission wins, and in none of them has he been submitted himself. Twenty-one went to the judges. The counterweight is form — he has lost three of his last four, all on the cards.

Case for Nuzzi

Nuzzi has finished eight of his eleven wins and carries two no contests, the most recent an accidental knee to the groin that ended his April bout at 3:35 of the first. Both of his defeats are submissions, which is the one thing Xiao Long has never suffered and often does.

What We Were Watching For

  • Xiao Long has nine submission wins and has never been submitted. Both of Nuzzi's defeats are submissions.
  • Twenty-one of Xiao Long's thirty-eight fights reached a decision. Nuzzi has been to three.
  • Nuzzi's last fight was stopped at 3:35 of the first on an accidental knee to the groin — the second no contest of his career.
  • Xiao Long has lost three of his last four, every one of them on the scorecards.
Records & career stats
Xiao Long vs Nuzzi
27-11-0
Record
11-2-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
China
Nationality
Italy
28
Age
30
1.73 m
Height — Xiao Long leads
1.60 m
178 cm
Reach
Not published
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
52%
Finish rateFinish % — Nuzzi leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
75%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Nuzzi leads
6
9
Wins by submissionSub wins — Xiao Long leads
3
5.05
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Nuzzi leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
11
3.92
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4
50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Xiao Long leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
43%
82%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
12:49
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
01:00
UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
Team
Aurora MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Octagon interview

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 9:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long by decision.

“Long Xiao by decision, maybe by submission, but I'm going to say by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 32:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long on his experience at a higher level without settling on a result method.

“I'm going to go Xiao Long.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 25:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long by decision, citing his pressure, power, and volume.

“Xiao Long by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 7:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long by decision.

“I'mma go Long Xiao by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 27:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long while leaving the choice between a late finish and decision unresolved.

“I'm going to pick Long Xiao to win either by a late finish or decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Vreeland favors Xiao’s wrestling options and striking matchup against Nuzzi.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 8:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi by decision.

“I'm going Francesco Nutti to win this fight by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 8:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi without a stated method.

“I'm going to go with Francesco Nuzzi.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 18:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi for his striking and cage-side takedown defence.

“I'm still gonna pick Franchesco.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 26:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi as an underdog on activity and cleaner striking.

“I'm going to take an underdog shot on Newsie to come out here and upset Long Xiao in China.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Hit; Daniel Vreeland Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 9:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long by decision.

“Long Xiao by decision, maybe by submission, but I'm going to say by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · DecNuzzi · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 8:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi by decision.

“I'm going Francesco Nutti to win this fight by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Nuzzi · DecNuzzi · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 32:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long on his experience at a higher level without settling on a result method.

“I'm going to go Xiao Long.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · to winNuzzi · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 8:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi without a stated method.

“I'm going to go with Francesco Nuzzi.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Nuzzi · to winNuzzi · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 25:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long by decision, citing his pressure, power, and volume.

“Xiao Long by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · DecNuzzi · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 18:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi for his striking and cage-side takedown defence.

“I'm still gonna pick Franchesco.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Nuzzi · to winNuzzi · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 7:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long · Dec

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long by decision.

“I'mma go Long Xiao by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · DecNuzzi · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 27:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Xiao Long while leaving the choice between a late finish and decision unresolved.

“I'm going to pick Long Xiao to win either by a late finish or decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · to winNuzzi · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 26:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Francesco Nuzzi

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Picks Francesco Nuzzi as an underdog on activity and cleaner striking.

“I'm going to take an underdog shot on Newsie to come out here and upset Long Xiao in China.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Nuzzi · to winNuzzi · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Daniel Vreeland29 resolved calls
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiao Long

Fight result: Francesco Nuzzi · KO/TKO

Vreeland favors Xiao’s wrestling options and striking matchup against Nuzzi.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · to winNuzzi · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

4 of 10 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.