UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Liu Ce defeats Levi Rodrigues Jr. by KO/TKO

Win Liu Ce 4-1-0
Loss Levi Rodrigues Jr. 5-2-0
KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:26

Liu Ce vs Rodrigues Jr. — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Liu Ce and Levi Rodrigues Jr. traded shots in range from the opening bell, with Liu hurting Rodrigues repeatedly.

As both continued swinging late in the first round, Liu landed a heavy right hand that sent Rodrigues to the canvas for the knockout.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Liu Ce

Liu Ce has had four professional fights and every one ended in strikes — three wins by TKO and the single loss the same way. His longest night finished at 1:55 of the second round. He arrives 3-1 with nothing on the record that shows what he does after that.

Case for Rodrigues Jr.

Rodrigues Jr. has never seen a scorecard either: five knockouts, one knockout loss and a no contest across seven fights, at a 100% finish rate. Six weeks ago Felipe Franco stopped him in the second round on his UFC debut, which is the newest fact in this bout and the least comfortable.

What We Were Watching For

  • Not one of their fights has reached a judge — Liu Ce is 3-1, Rodrigues Jr. 5-1 with a no contest.
  • Liu Ce's longest fight lasted 6:55. Rodrigues Jr.'s longest reached 21 seconds into a third round, on an injury stoppage.
  • Both men's only defeats are second-round TKOs: Liu Ce to Ivan Gnizditskiy in October 2024, Rodrigues Jr. to Felipe Franco in July.
  • This is Liu Ce's first UFC fight. Rodrigues Jr.'s one previous UFC appearance is also his only professional loss.
Records & career stats
Liu Ce vs Rodrigues Jr.
Liu Ce Rodrigues Jr.
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 13.31 3.74
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 51% 29%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 6.32 7.27
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 100% 57%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 100% 100%
3-1-0
Record
5-1-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-1-1 last 5
China
Nationality
Brazil
29
Age
29
1.96 m
Height — Liu Ce leads
1.83 m
197 cm
Reach — Liu Ce leads
194 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
100%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
100%
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rodrigues Jr. leads
5
0
Wins by submissionSub wins
0
13.31
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Liu Ce leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.74
6.32
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Liu Ce leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
7.27
51%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Liu Ce leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
29%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Liu Ce leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
57%
04:26
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
04:49

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 20:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to pick Liu Ce by round one KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 49:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce, the kickboxer, to stop Levi Rodrigues Jr. by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to say Liu Ce to win by first-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 46:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce to find the knockout through his power against Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“I'm going to pick Lou here. I'm going to pick Lou.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 6:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce to knock out Levi Rodrigues Jr. early, citing Ce's toughness, length and power in a likely trading fight.

“So, give me C. Louie to win this fight and win it by first round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 33:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce for his striking and cage defense, expecting him to outbox and out-kickbox Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“Liu is the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 14:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to go Liu Ce by KO in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 41:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce for a knockout, allowing either of the opening two rounds.

“Liu Ce is going to get the knockout win, either round one or round two.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 22:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. while presenting submission and TKO as alternative routes, so no single method is recorded.

“Levi Rodriguez Jr. ... win by submission or TKO over Leuch.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 16:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. to score an upset knockout in a standing brawl.

“I'm gonna pick Lebby Rodriguez to come out here and get this upset and knock Lou out.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 20:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to pick Liu Ce by round one KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1Liu · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 49:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce, the kickboxer, to stop Levi Rodrigues Jr. by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to say Liu Ce to win by first-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1Liu · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 22:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. while presenting submission and TKO as alternative routes, so no single method is recorded.

“Levi Rodriguez Jr. ... win by submission or TKO over Leuch.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · to winLiu · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 46:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce to find the knockout through his power against Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“I'm going to pick Lou here. I'm going to pick Lou.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKOLiu · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 6:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce to knock out Levi Rodrigues Jr. early, citing Ce's toughness, length and power in a likely trading fight.

“So, give me C. Louie to win this fight and win it by first round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1Liu · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 33:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce for his striking and cage defense, expecting him to outbox and out-kickbox Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“Liu is the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · to winLiu · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 14:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to go Liu Ce by KO in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1Liu · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 41:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Liu Ce for a knockout, allowing either of the opening two rounds.

“Liu Ce is going to get the knockout win, either round one or round two.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKOLiu · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 16:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO

Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO

Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. to score an upset knockout in a standing brawl.

“I'm gonna pick Lebby Rodriguez to come out here and get this upset and knock Lou out.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKOLiu · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

7 of 9 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.