Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Ignacio Bahamondes defeats Muslim Salikhov by unanimous decision

Win Ignacio Bahamondes 18-7-0
Loss Muslim Salikhov 22-7-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Bahamondes vs Salikhov — Welterweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The official UFC result confirms the winner and result.

The bout was recorded across the full official result entry.

Narrative detail remains limited to the verified result and method.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Bahamondes

Bahamondes is at his most effective when he can use length, movement and varied kicking attacks to make opponents reset. The matchup asks whether he can maintain that space against a veteran who is comfortable countering at range.

Case for Salikhov

Salikhov's experience and kickboxing craft give him a clear path if he can read Bahamondes' entries and make the younger fighter pay for overextension. His best rounds should come from reducing the fight to disciplined counter exchanges.

What We Were Watching For

  • How Bahamondes manages range against Salikhov's counters.
  • Whether Salikhov can pressure without giving up the outside lane.
  • Which fighter lands the cleaner kicks at long range.
  • How the pace changes if the fight reaches the later rounds.
Records & career stats
Bahamondes vs Salikhov
Bahamondes Salikhov
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.90 3.31
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 56% 61%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.93 3.20
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 69% 72%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 72% 77%
17-7-0
Record
22-6-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Chile
Nationality
Russia
29
Age
41
1.91 m
Height — Bahamondes leads
1.80 m
192 cm
Reach — Bahamondes leads
178 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
72%
Finish rateFinish % — Salikhov leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
77%
11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Salikhov leads
15
2
Wins by submissionSub wins
2
5.90
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bahamondes leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.31
3.93
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Salikhov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.20
56%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Salikhov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
69%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Salikhov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
72%
11:11
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:26
Lightweight (moving up)
Weight classWeight
Welterweight
Valle Flow Striking Academy
Team
Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov School

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Live Dogs MMA
Hear it — 2:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes; the transcript expresses both a KO preference and a decision pick, so method is left unspecified.

“I like him by KO, but I took him by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (13 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout.

“Bahamondes will find his angle to find that knockout win over Muslim Salikhov.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 5:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes; the caption garbles the surname.

“weight class. I'm going to pick Bahamandez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 13:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2.

“We're going with Ignacio Bahamondes by round-two knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 17:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · Dec

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision.

“Ultimately, Ignacio Bahamondes wins the fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 15:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by TKO in round 3.

“I'm going to go third-round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 18:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by TKO.

“I'm going to go Bahamondes by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout in round 1.

“Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by first-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 84:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win.

“Ignacio Bahamondes is the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 17:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.

“Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 10:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · Dec

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by decision.

“I'm going to go with Bahamondes by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 31:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout or TKO.

“I'm going Ignacio Bahamondes by first- or second-round KO/TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 29:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.

“I think Ignacio Bahamondes is going to come out here and knock Salikhov out.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Live Dogs MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Kunath Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Live Dogs MMA13 resolved calls
Live Dogs MMA
Hear it — 2:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes; the transcript expresses both a KO preference and a decision pick, so method is left unspecified.

“I like him by KO, but I took him by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (13 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · to winBahamondes · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout.

“Bahamondes will find his angle to find that knockout win over Muslim Salikhov.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKOBahamondes · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Jimbo Ortega MMA29 resolved calls
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 5:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes; the caption garbles the surname.

“weight class. I'm going to pick Bahamandez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · to winBahamondes · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 13:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2.

“We're going with Ignacio Bahamondes by round-two knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKO · R2Bahamondes · Dec R3HitMissMiss
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 17:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · Dec

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision.

“Ultimately, Ignacio Bahamondes wins the fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · DecBahamondes · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 15:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by TKO in round 3.

“I'm going to go third-round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKO · R3Bahamondes · Dec R3HitMissMiss
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 18:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by TKO.

“I'm going to go Bahamondes by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKOBahamondes · Dec R3HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout in round 1.

“Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by first-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKO · R1Bahamondes · Dec R3HitMissMiss
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 84:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win.

“Ignacio Bahamondes is the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · to winBahamondes · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath
Hear it — 17:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.

“Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKOBahamondes · Dec R3HitMissNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 10:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · Dec

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by decision.

“I'm going to go with Bahamondes by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · DecBahamondes · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 31:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout or TKO.

“I'm going Ignacio Bahamondes by first- or second-round KO/TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKOBahamondes · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 29:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.

“I think Ignacio Bahamondes is going to come out here and knock Salikhov out.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKOBahamondes · Dec R3HitMissNot called

13 of 13 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Bahamondes · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 81% on Bahamondes.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
81% Bahamondes
19% Salikhov
PickBahamondes · KO/TKO · R2ActualBahamondes · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
76% Bahamondes
24% Salikhov
PickBahamondes · KO/TKO · R1ActualBahamondes · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
81% Bahamondes
19% Salikhov
PickBahamondes · KO/TKO · R2ActualBahamondes · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Bahamondes

All three expect a win by KO/TKO, with win chances from 76% (Claude) to 81% (ChatGPT and Gemini).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 29% (Claude) to 38% (ChatGPT and Gemini), a 9-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 1

    Win probability: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    High confidence
More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 1Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 1Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 55% overall: Bahamondes 43%, Salikhov 12%
Submission, 7% overall: Bahamondes 6%, Salikhov 1%
Decision, 38% overall: Bahamondes 32%, Salikhov 6%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 1

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 60% overall: Bahamondes 45%, Salikhov 15%
Submission, 11% overall: Bahamondes 9%, Salikhov 2%
Decision, 29% overall: Bahamondes 22%, Salikhov 7%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 56% overall: Bahamondes 46%, Salikhov 10%
Submission, 6% overall: Bahamondes 5%, Salikhov 1%
Decision, 38% overall: Bahamondes 30%, Salikhov 8%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.