UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Alessandro Costa defeats Cody Durden by Submission
Round 2 · 2:19
Costa vs Durden — Flyweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Costa landed the more consequential strikes in round one.
The fight reached the mat in the second, where Costa took side control.
He advanced to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke at 2:19.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Costa
Costa is the finishing threat on this UFC 329 flyweight prelim, and he took the fight the way he takes most of them — on short notice, backing himself to hurt someone. Thirteen of his sixteen wins come by knockout or submission, all four of his UFC victories are stoppages, and he arrives on a two-fight knockout streak over Stewart Nicoll and Matt Schnell. His case against Durden is disruption and power: heavy leg kicks to compromise the wrestler's base, compact power boxing to punish level changes, and a proven body attack that has ended fights late. If Costa keeps the fight in open space and makes Durden pay for entries, his one-shot danger can turn a grinder's matchup into another quick night.
Case for Durden
Durden is the argument for structure. Even after the four-fight skid he snapped by beating Jafel Filho, his clearest wins come from the same reliable pattern: heavy entries, clinch pressure, mat returns and enough top threat to score or finish once the fight stops breathing. Against a short-notice opponent with a limited camp, that pressure is a serious weapon. If Durden can weather Costa's early power, close the distance and drag the Brazilian into reactive wrestling along the fence, the fight becomes far more about control and attrition than highlight finishes — exactly where Durden does his best work.
What We Were Watching For
- Durden's first committed takedown attempt — if Costa can't create separation there, the fight shape tilts toward the wrestler.
- Costa's leg kicks and counters on Durden's entries — the quickest way to punish a pressure-first game and keep the fight standing.
- Costa's conditioning on short notice — his power is real, but a full camp matters most late in a three-round fight.
- Whether Costa's body attack shows up — the liver shot that folded Nicoll is a live path to a late finish here too.
Records & career stats
- 3.77 3.27
- 57% 51%
- 3.71 3.89
- 87% 57%
- 82% 67%
- 16-5-0
- Record
- 18-10-1
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1-2 last 3
- Brazil
- Nationality
- USA
- 30
- Age
- 35
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Southpaw
- 09:29
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:56
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Both hosts land on Costa. They see Durden's gritty wrestling as the main danger, but think Costa has the sharper striking, enough submission threat to punish bad entries, and the power/speed edge if the fight stays upright.
“Yeah, I'm going with Aleandro Costa.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Calls the opener closer than the market tone suggests and admits he nearly picked Durden. He still sides with Costa because the calf kicks, power, BJJ threats and harder pocket shots should offset Durden's pressure and wrestling looks.
“I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa to win this one.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two.
“Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision.
“I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Frames Costa as the much better striker with the strength and takedown defense to punish Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to rip the body, stuff enough shots, hurt Durden in round two and finish with ground-and-pound.
“I'm picking Costa second round TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
- Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
- Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Likes Alessandro Costa's recent body-shot finishing form and thinks Durden is vulnerable to exactly that kind of damage. He expects Costa's short, stocky frame to make the grappling difficult while his pressure creates a body-shot TKO.
“Second round body shot TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one.
“I'm going to go Aleandro Costa to knock out Cody Denon in the first round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“Alessandro Costa wins by KO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Leftlane MMA picks Alessandro Costa to win by TKO.
“Give me Costa by TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence.
“Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Costa because he views him as the much bigger threat on the feet despite taking the fight on short notice. He expects Costa to stuff Durden's takedowns, win the striking, and land a second-round knockout shot.
“So yes, give me Alisandra Costa by round two, TKO or KO, probably with something like a left hook.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Cody Durden by decision.
“So, I’m going to go Durden here to pull off the upset to start off the card, and I’m going to take him to win this fight by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
- Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“yeah, I'm gonna take Duran.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden · Dec
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Cody Durden by decision.
“I’ll roll with Cody Deran to win by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Cody Durden
Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission
Picks Cody Durden to outwork Alessandro Costa if he avoids the big power shots. He acknowledges Costa has the harder one-shot threat, but expects Durden's pace, wrestling and top control to carry enough of the fight.
“Duran's got a chance to outwork Costa. I'm going to pick Duran to come out here and get his arm raised and start a new win streak.”
* Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
Analyst picks: MMA Gambling Podcast Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; 138 MMA Miss; HopperMMA Hit; BetSam Hit; Leftlane MMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Pure Picks Miss; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit.
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MMA Gambling Podcast
MMA Gambling Podcast
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Both hosts land on Costa. They see Durden's gritty wrestling as the main danger, but think Costa has the sharper striking, enough submission threat to punish bad entries, and the power/speed edge if the fight stays upright. “Yeah, I'm going with Aleandro Costa.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Both hosts land on Costa. They see Durden's gritty wrestling as the main danger, but think Costa has the sharper striking, enough submission threat to punish bad entries, and the power/speed edge if the fight stays upright. “Yeah, I'm going with Aleandro Costa.” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
MMA Lock of the Night
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidencePicked: Cody Durden · Dec Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Picks Cody Durden by decision. “So, I’m going to go Durden here to pull off the upset to start off the card, and I’m going to take him to win this fight by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Durden · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Cody Durden by decision. “So, I’m going to go Durden here to pull off the upset to start off the card, and I’m going to take him to win this fight by decision.” Track record: winner called in 73 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · Dec Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Calls the opener closer than the market tone suggests and admits he nearly picked Durden. He still sides with Costa because the calf kicks, power, BJJ threats and harder pocket shots should offset Durden's pressure and wrestling looks. “I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa to win this one.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Calls the opener closer than the market tone suggests and admits he nearly picked Durden. He still sides with Costa because the calf kicks, power, BJJ threats and harder pocket shots should offset Durden's pressure and wrestling looks. “I'm going to go with Alessandro Costa to win this one.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasle
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two. “Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two. “Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Lucas Tracy
Lucas Tracy
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · Dec Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision. “I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision. “I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.” Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Frames Costa as the much better striker with the strength and takedown defense to punish Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to rip the body, stuff enough shots, hurt Durden in round two and finish with ground-and-pound. “I'm picking Costa second round TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Frames Costa as the much better striker with the strength and takedown defense to punish Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to rip the body, stuff enough shots, hurt Durden in round two and finish with ground-and-pound. “I'm picking Costa second round TKO.” Track record: winner called in 71 of 107 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Likes Alessandro Costa's recent body-shot finishing form and thinks Durden is vulnerable to exactly that kind of damage. He expects Costa's short, stocky frame to make the grappling difficult while his pressure creates a body-shot TKO. “Second round body shot TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Likes Alessandro Costa's recent body-shot finishing form and thinks Durden is vulnerable to exactly that kind of damage. He expects Costa's short, stocky frame to make the grappling difficult while his pressure creates a body-shot TKO. “Second round body shot TKO.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
138 MMA
138 MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Cody Durden Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction. “yeah, I'm gonna take Duran.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Durden · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction. “yeah, I'm gonna take Duran.” Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HopperMMA
HopperMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one. “I'm going to go Aleandro Costa to knock out Cody Denon in the first round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R1 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one. “I'm going to go Aleandro Costa to knock out Cody Denon in the first round.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 121 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
BetSam
BetSam
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction. “Alessandro Costa wins by KO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction. “Alessandro Costa wins by KO.” Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Leftlane MMA
Leftlane MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Leftlane MMA picks Alessandro Costa to win by TKO. “Give me Costa by TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Leftlane MMA picks Alessandro Costa to win by TKO. “Give me Costa by TKO.” Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence. “Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence. “Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.”
Hear it — 12:29
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record →
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Pure Picks
Pure Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Cody Durden · Dec Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Picks Cody Durden by decision. “I’ll roll with Cody Deran to win by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Durden · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Cody Durden by decision. “I’ll roll with Cody Deran to win by decision.” Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Aniki MMA
Aniki MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Picks Costa because he views him as the much bigger threat on the feet despite taking the fight on short notice. He expects Costa to stuff Durden's takedowns, win the striking, and land a second-round knockout shot. “So yes, give me Alisandra Costa by round two, TKO or KO, probably with something like a left hook.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Picks Costa because he views him as the much bigger threat on the feet despite taking the fight on short notice. He expects Costa to stuff Durden's takedowns, win the striking, and land a second-round knockout shot. “So yes, give me Alisandra Costa by round two, TKO or KO, probably with something like a left hook.” Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: Cody Durden Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Picks Cody Durden to outwork Alessandro Costa if he avoids the big power shots. He acknowledges Costa has the harder one-shot threat, but expects Durden's pace, wrestling and top control to carry enough of the fight. “Duran's got a chance to outwork Costa. I'm going to pick Duran to come out here and get his arm raised and start a new win streak.” * Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Durden · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Cody Durden to outwork Alessandro Costa if he avoids the big power shots. He acknowledges Costa has the harder one-shot threat, but expects Durden's pace, wrestling and top control to carry enough of the fight. “Duran's got a chance to outwork Costa. I'm going to pick Duran to come out here and get his arm raised and start a new win streak.” * Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him. Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Schweppe
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidencePicked: Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Alessandro Costa · Submission Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. Track record: winner called in 36 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
12 of 16 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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