Bogdan Grad defeats Dennis Buzukja by Submission
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Round 2 · 4:33
Buzukja vs Grad — Featherweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Grad controlled the early going and pursued the finish throughout. The fight reached the second round.
Grad secured an arm-triangle choke late in the second round. The referee waved the fight off.
The fight ended at 4:33 of round two, with Buzukja protesting the stoppage.
- Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade prelim results
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More from this fight.
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Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks called it; The MMA Guru called it; Michael Chiesa called it; Half The Battle called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; AJ called it; MMAPREDICTIONGURU called it; Bedtime MMA called it; HopperoMMA called it; JakeGerberMMA called it; James Lynch called it; Bookie Beatdown called it; KennyOkoyeMMA called it.
13 of 13 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Grad · to win. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Takes Grad on the striking edge, noting Buzukja is a credentialed wrestler who does not use his wrestling, while saying he would probably not bet it.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Grad · to win. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Picks Grad as the explosive, athletic, physically bigger man who has multiple winning paths, striking or grappling, against a Buzukja coming off a bad knockout loss.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Grad · to win. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate.
“In the featherweight bout on the prelims, I'm taking Bogdan Grad.”
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Grad · to win. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Says Buzukja is coming off a bad knockout only three months ago with no real recovery time, while Grad took proper time off after his own KO loss and has the more functional, well-rounded game.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
His least favourite fight on the card. Grad is a BJJ black belt who throws more volume, lands the bigger shots and can mix in takedowns, so he takes Grad on activity rather than a finish.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Grad · to win. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Calls it a close battle of two defensively leaky fighters but favours Grad's speed, explosiveness and wrestling, and is worried about Buzukja's chin after a brutal knockout loss.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Calls Buzukja more technical but Grad more explosive and powerful, says Grad looks hungrier and has had longer to recover from his knockout loss, with control time the difference.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Frames it as striker vs grappler where Buzukja's chin is the bigger liability, and trusts Grad's chained takedowns and control.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Says being semi-good is enough to beat Buzukja, and Grad is a good grappler with solid stand-up who out-grappled Luke Riley early.
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Calls this a genuine coin flip and says Buzukja may be the sharper striker, but leans Grad because his forward pressure and activity should look better to the judges.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 17 of 24 James Lynch: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Expects a close back-and-forth fight and does not believe Grad has shown the finishing power in the UFC to stop Buzukja, so he takes Grad on the scorecards.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 24 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 14 of 24 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Grad · Decision. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Grad's relentless pressure, high work rate and takedowns beat Buzukja, described as a generalist with no volume and no power to make Grad respect him.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 24 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Grad · to win. Actual Grad · Sub R2. Result: Hit.
Says Grad hits with more velocity, is more unorthodox and more well-rounded, and can also grapple if he gets uncomfortable.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 4.21 4.06
- 49% 49%
- 4.79 5.06
- 75% 75%
- 50% 73%
- 12-6-0
- Record
- 15-4-0
- 1-4 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 10:22
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:15
- United States
- Nationality
- Austria
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Buzukja
Buzukja takes less damage than Grad does — 4.79 strikes absorbed a minute against 5.06, the highest figure recorded on this card — and his best work comes in scrambles where his Ring of Combat grounding shows. If he keeps the fight standing and honest, that gap is his opening.
Case for Grad
Grad's karate base gives him awkward entries, and he is happy to turn the fight into scrambles rather than a clean striking match — though Buzukja defends takedowns at 75%. Buzukja has been knocked out as recently as April, so Grad does not need the full fifteen minutes.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Grad can drag Buzukja into scrambles — Buzukja defends takedowns at 75%.
- Buzukja's chin after a first-round knockout loss in April 2026.
- Which man's cardio holds up; both absorb more strikes than they land.
- Grad's karate-style blitzes against a fighter who counters well.
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