UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria  17 Feb 2024 · Anaheim, California, US

Ilia Topuria defeats Alexander Volkanovski by KO

Loss Alexander Volkanovski 26-4-0
Win Ilia Topuria 15-0-0
Watch the fight
KO · overhand right

Round 2 · 3:32

Volkanovski vs Topuria — Featherweight Title · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Volkanovski won the first round on all three judges' scorecards.

Topuria closed the space in round two and trapped Volkanovski on the fence.

An overhand right ended the fight at 3:32 of the second round.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Volkanovski

Volkanovski entered as the long-reigning featherweight champion, still the division's most layered kickboxer and one of the best round-winners in UFC history. His low kicks, feints and stance switches were the tools to slow Topuria before the challenger could sit down on power.

Case for Topuria

Topuria arrived unbeaten with the compact boxing, body work and grappling threat that had carried him into title contention. The question was whether his pressure and punch mechanics could hold up against a champion who rarely gave opponents the same look twice.

What We Were Watching For

  • Volkanovski's calf kicks and feints against Topuria's pocket entries.
  • Whether Topuria could pressure without overreaching into counters.
  • The champion's round-winning craft against the challenger's one-shot finishing power.
Records & career stats
Volkanovski vs Topuria
Volkanovski Topuria
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.99 4.82
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 59% 62%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.31 3.97
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 69% 95%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 57% 88%
26-3-0
Record
14-0-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
Australia
Nationality
Georgia / Spain
37
Age
29
1.68 m
Height — Topuria leads
1.70 m
181 cm
Reach — Volkanovski leads
175 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
57%
Finish rateFinish % — Topuria leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
88%
13
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Volkanovski leads
7
3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Topuria leads
8
5.99
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Volkanovski leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.82
3.31
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Volkanovski leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.97
59%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Topuria leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
62%
69%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Topuria leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
95%
16:50
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:26
Featherweight
Weight classWeight
Lightweight (moving down)
Freestyle Fighting Gym
Team
Team Topuria

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Ilia Topuria Octagon Interview | UFC 298
Before the fight (1)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

UFC GamblingAddicts
Hear it — 24:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

UFC GamblingAddicts transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (23 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 20:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 21:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

TheWeasle transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 39:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

Lucas Tracy transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
View full track record (53 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 37:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

MMA JOEY transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 39:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: UFC GamblingAddicts Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
UFC GamblingAddicts23 resolved calls
UFC GamblingAddicts
Hear it — 24:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

UFC GamblingAddicts transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (23 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 20:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 21:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

TheWeasle transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called
Lucas Tracy53 resolved calls
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 39:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

Lucas Tracy transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
View full track record (53 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 37:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

MMA JOEY transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 39:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called

6 of 6 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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