UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Sam Patterson defeats Santiago Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO

Loss Santiago Ponzinibbio 30-10-0
Win Sam Patterson 15-3-1
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 2 · 3:06

Ponzinibbio vs Patterson — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Patterson settled into his range during the back half of round one.

He increased the pressure and damage in round two.

Patterson continued unloading after hurting Ponzinibbio until the stoppage.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio makes his 21st UFC appearance in his 13th year with the promotion. The UFC preview says he returns after a third-round stoppage loss to Daniel Rodriguez and has gone 2-5 in his last seven, although three of those defeats were split decisions.

Case for Patterson

Patterson is the rangy British opponent looking to rebound from a low-output loss to Michael Page in London. The UFC preview says that setback ended a four-fight run of success since he moved to welterweight, giving him a clear recent baseline to rediscover.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Ponzinibbio's long UFC experience helps him reset after the Rodriguez loss.
  • Patterson's activity after the low-output Michael Page defeat.
  • The range battle between the veteran and the taller-framed British welterweight.
  • How either fighter responds if the bout becomes a close round-by-round decision.
Records & career stats
Ponzinibbio vs Patterson
Ponzinibbio Patterson
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.67 3.58
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 61% 59%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.79 2.82
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 71% 50%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 77% 93%
30-9-0
Record
14-3-1
1-4 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
Argentina
Nationality
England
39
Age
30
1.83 m
Height — Patterson leads
1.91 m
185 cm
Reach — Patterson leads
200 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
77%
Finish rateFinish % — Patterson leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
93%
17
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Ponzinibbio leads
7
6
Wins by submissionSub wins — Patterson leads
7
4.67
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Ponzinibbio leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.58
4.79
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Patterson leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.82
61%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
71%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Ponzinibbio leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
11:11
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
05:35
American Top Team ATT Coconut Creek, FL
Team
Team Crossface

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 7:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“getting the W in this one. We're going to be picking Sam Patterson. I'm going”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 23:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Expects Patterson's reach, straight shots and power to exploit the aging Ponzinibbio's forward pressure for a knockout.

“Sam Patterson not only to win, but I'm going to pick him by knockout win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 2:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“Axel Solah over Ishmael Bonfam. Next up, Sam Patterson versus Santiago Ponibio.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 29:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“But unfortunately, I like Ponzi, but I got to pick against him here against a”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Expects Patterson's power to catch the forward-moving Ponzinibbio for a first-round knockout.

“getting finished in the first round. So, give me Sam Patterson to win. I'll take”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 8:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“hasn't faced anybody good so far. I'm going to go with Sam Patterson to”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 7:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“getting the W in this one. We're going to be picking Sam Patterson. I'm going”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to winPatterson · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 23:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Expects Patterson's reach, straight shots and power to exploit the aging Ponzinibbio's forward pressure for a knockout.

“Sam Patterson not only to win, but I'm going to pick him by knockout win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · KO/TKOPatterson · KO/TKO R2HitHitNot called
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 2:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“Axel Solah over Ishmael Bonfam. Next up, Sam Patterson versus Santiago Ponibio.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to winPatterson · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 29:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“But unfortunately, I like Ponzi, but I got to pick against him here against a”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to winPatterson · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Expects Patterson's power to catch the forward-moving Ponzinibbio for a first-round knockout.

“getting finished in the first round. So, give me Sam Patterson to win. I'll take”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · KO/TKO · R1Patterson · KO/TKO R2HitHitMiss
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 8:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sam Patterson

Fight result: Sam Patterson · KO/TKO

Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview.

“hasn't faced anybody good so far. I'm going to go with Sam Patterson to”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to winPatterson · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called

6 of 6 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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