UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse  5 Sep 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France, FR

Matthieu Duclos defeats Luis Felipe Dias by KO/TKO

Win Matthieu Duclos 11-3-0
Loss Luis Felipe Dias 18-6-0
KO/TKO · punches

Round 1 · 4:35

Duclos vs Dias · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Dias had the better of the first four minutes with hard body kicks, a knee to the midsection and power punching from both hands, while Duclos worked behind his jab.

As Dias came in, Duclos clipped him with a check left hook that dropped him, then followed with hammerfists to end it.

Duclos followed the knockdown with hammerfists and ended it with 25 seconds remaining in the round.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Duclos

Duclos wins by knockout or not at all: eight of his ten wins are knockouts, none by submission, and he conceded no takedowns at 100% defence in his one Contender Series bout. At 196 cm he holds an 8 cm reach advantage, and fights in front of a French crowd.

Case for Dias

Dias has finished seventeen of his eighteen wins — nine knockouts and eight submissions, one decision in an 18-5 career. He carries a 4.52 takedown average per 15 minutes and a 1.13 submission average into a fight with a man who has zero submission wins.

What We Were Watching For

  • Duclos absorbs 6.81 significant strikes a minute — the highest figure on this card — behind 46% defence.
  • Dias has one decision win in eighteen. Duclos has two in ten, and no submissions at all.
  • Duclos stuffed every takedown attempt in that one Contender Series bout; Dias attempts 4.52 per 15 minutes but has landed 0 of 7 in the UFC.
  • Both average under eight minutes a fight: 07:38 for Duclos, 06:39 for Dias.
Records & career stats
Duclos vs Dias
10-3-0
Record
18-5-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
France
Nationality
Brazil
31
Age
31
1.91 m
Height — Duclos leads
1.78 m
196 cm
Reach — Duclos leads
188 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
82%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
9
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Dias leads
8
3.93
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Duclos leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.36
6.06
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Dias leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.02
50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Dias leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Duclos leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
06:07
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
05:57
Woirin Team Elite
Team
Vale Top Team

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Fighter interview
Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 2:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Rates Duclos' reach and counter-striking as the tool to catch a chin-up, square-standing Dias.

“going to go with Duduco to win this one by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 25:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Points to Dias never checking kicks as the opening for Duclos' leg kicks and mobility.

“I think that Ducllo is a tricky matchup for Luis Phipe Diaz. And I'm going to pick Ducllo here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 30:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Backs Duclos' sharper technical striking to catch a slowing Dias, without settling on finish or decision.

“in terms of a pick, I'll say Dlo gets it done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 17:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · Sub

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Picks Luis Felipe Dias by submission.

“Give me Louise Phipe Diaz by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Impressed by Duclos' power, kicks and clinch work, and expects Dias' cardio to fade as the fight extends.

“Duclo to win by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 13:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Prefers Duclos' patient, accurate counter striking to Dias' less disciplined overhand-heavy pressure.

“I don't hate the Tal Duclos. I never would have bet on him like this, but I do think he wins the fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
James Lynch
Source unavailable — 10:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Points to Duclos' knockout tally against a Dias already finished by strikes twice.

“I'll take uh Ducolos uh by second round knockout to get it done over Diaz.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; James Lynch Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 2:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Rates Duclos' reach and counter-striking as the tool to catch a chin-up, square-standing Dias.

“going to go with Duduco to win this one by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · to winDuclos · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 25:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Points to Dias never checking kicks as the opening for Duclos' leg kicks and mobility.

“I think that Ducllo is a tricky matchup for Luis Phipe Diaz. And I'm going to pick Ducllo here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · KO/TKODuclos · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 30:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Backs Duclos' sharper technical striking to catch a slowing Dias, without settling on finish or decision.

“in terms of a pick, I'll say Dlo gets it done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · to winDuclos · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
MMA Husky Hustler31 resolved calls
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 17:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · Sub

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Picks Luis Felipe Dias by submission.

“Give me Louise Phipe Diaz by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · SubDuclos · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Impressed by Duclos' power, kicks and clinch work, and expects Dias' cardio to fade as the fight extends.

“Duclo to win by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · KO/TKO · R2Duclos · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 13:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Prefers Duclos' patient, accurate counter striking to Dias' less disciplined overhand-heavy pressure.

“I don't hate the Tal Duclos. I never would have bet on him like this, but I do think he wins the fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · to winDuclos · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
James Lynch44 resolved calls
James Lynch
Source unavailable — 10:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO

Points to Duclos' knockout tally against a Dias already finished by strikes twice.

“I'll take uh Ducolos uh by second round knockout to get it done over Diaz.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · KO/TKO · R2Duclos · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss

7 of 7 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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