UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman  18 Jul 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US

Christian Leroy Duncan defeats Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision

Loss Jared Cannonier 18-10-0
Win Christian Leroy Duncan 15-2-0
Watch the fight
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Cannonier vs Duncan — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Duncan controlled the range early, beating Cannonier to the punch with faster, more varied striking.

Wrestling entries kept Cannonier from planting his feet and loading up the power he is known for.

Cannonier stayed dangerous into the third but never found the single exchange that would flip the fight.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Cannonier

Cannonier is the harder, more proven hitter, and one-shot power ages more slowly than footwork — 11 of his wins are knockouts. If he can plant Duncan on the fence and turn this into a phone-booth fight, his championship-round miles against Vettori, Strickland and Brunson are a level Duncan hasn't touched.

Case for Duncan

Duncan wins if the fight stays long and at range. He is 12 years younger, riding a 4-1 run built on length, stance switches and spinning offense, and a 42-year-old Cannonier has been stopped by Imavov and out-moved by Michael Page in exactly the kind of track meet Duncan wants.

What We Were Watching For

  • Cannonier's power window: at 42 his best chance is early and heavy — does he load up before the pace turns against him?
  • Range vs pressure: Duncan's switch-stance, spinning offense against Cannonier trying to close distance and rip the body.
  • Duncan's chin under real power: Cannonier hits harder than anyone Duncan has stopped — can CLD eat a clean one and stay composed?
  • Miles on the tires: Cannonier is 2-3 in his last five with two knockout losses — is the durability there for a full 15?
Records & career stats
Cannonier vs Duncan
Cannonier Duncan
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.25 4.45
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 56% 54%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.36 2.36
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 65% 58%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 72% 73%
18-9-0
Record
14-2-0
2-3 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
United States
Nationality
United Kingdom
42
Age
30
1.80 m
Height — Duncan leads
187.96 cm
197 cm
Reach — Duncan leads
200.66 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
72%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
73%
11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Cannonier leads
10
2
Wins by submissionSub wins — Cannonier leads
1
4.25
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Duncan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.45
4.36
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Duncan leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.36
56%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
65%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Cannonier leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
13:57
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:33

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jared Cannonier · Dec

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City preview has Jesse Holland picking Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 50:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Picks Duncan by knockout, expecting his speed and elbows to create the explosive finish against Cannonier.

“stopped. So, we'll go Leroy Duncan by knockout as the pick in the co-main”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 26:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan's youth, activity and more varied striking to land more than Cannonier.

“way. Um, but I am going to go Christian Lee Roy Duncan here. I”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 42:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan's speed, movement and improving game against an aging Cannonier.

“just don't know that Jared is still that guy uh in this fight. If he was, I'd”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 21:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan on durability and finishing upside against the accumulated damage on Cannonier.

“Larry Duncan to win. I'll take him to win by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · Dec

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Christian Leroy Duncan by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Marcel Dorff
Hear it — 16:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Picks Duncan to stop Cannonier in the second round.

“Do I pick him by finish? Yeah, I I would say second round TKO for uh for Christian.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 98:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Calls Duncan by knockout, rating the younger fighter's finishing tools and momentum above Cannonier's current form.

“Duncan's gonna look the most dominant on this entire card. Christian Leroy Duncan”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 9:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan to knock Cannonier out, contrasting Duncan's durability with Cannonier's age and recent decline.

“Holloway. I'm going to go CLD to come out here and”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Marcel Dorff Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Half The Battle Hit; Jesse Holland Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 50:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Picks Duncan by knockout, expecting his speed and elbows to create the explosive finish against Cannonier.

“stopped. So, we'll go Leroy Duncan by knockout as the pick in the co-main”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKODuncan · Dec R3HitMissNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 26:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan's youth, activity and more varied striking to land more than Cannonier.

“way. Um, but I am going to go Christian Lee Roy Duncan here. I”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to winDuncan · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 42:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan's speed, movement and improving game against an aging Cannonier.

“just don't know that Jared is still that guy uh in this fight. If he was, I'd”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to winDuncan · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 21:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan on durability and finishing upside against the accumulated damage on Cannonier.

“Larry Duncan to win. I'll take him to win by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to winDuncan · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · Dec

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Christian Leroy Duncan by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · DecDuncan · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Marcel Dorff29 resolved calls
Marcel Dorff
Hear it — 16:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Picks Duncan to stop Cannonier in the second round.

“Do I pick him by finish? Yeah, I I would say second round TKO for uh for Christian.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO · R2Duncan · Dec R3HitMissMiss
Mike Finch40 resolved calls
Mike Finch
Hear it — 98:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Calls Duncan by knockout, rating the younger fighter's finishing tools and momentum above Cannonier's current form.

“Duncan's gonna look the most dominant on this entire card. Christian Leroy Duncan”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKODuncan · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 9:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

Takes Duncan to knock Cannonier out, contrasting Duncan's durability with Cannonier's age and recent decline.

“Holloway. I'm going to go CLD to come out here and”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKODuncan · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Jesse Holland55 resolved calls
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jared Cannonier · Dec

Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City preview has Jesse Holland picking Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 25.2%. Cannonier · DecDuncan · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

8 of 9 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 7 sportsbooks

25% Jared Cannonier
75% Christian Leroy Duncan

Favoured: Duncan (75%) Called it

Duncan defeats Cannonier · Dec

Final pre-fight line · as of 18 Jul 23:33 UTC · 7 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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