Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Yousri Belgaroui defeats Djorden Santos by KO/TKO

Win Yousri Belgaroui 11-3-0
Loss Djorden Santos 11-4-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 1 · 4:25

Belgaroui vs Santos — Middleweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The official UFC result confirms the winner and result.

The bout was recorded across the full official result entry.

Narrative detail remains limited to the verified result and method.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Belgaroui

Belgaroui's kickboxing background gives him a natural emphasis on distance, timing and straight-line damage. He needs to keep the fight structured enough to make those tools matter before Santos can turn it into a clinch-heavy contest.

Case for Santos

Santos can make the bout difficult by closing space and forcing exchanges where raw athleticism and physicality matter more than clean kickboxing rhythm. His opportunity is to disrupt Belgaroui's preferred range early.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Belgaroui can establish the long-range striking battle.
  • How Santos closes distance without absorbing damaging entries.
  • The importance of clinch control along the fence.
  • Which fighter dictates the tempo after the opening exchanges.
Records & career stats
Belgaroui vs Santos
Belgaroui Santos
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 6.44 6.43
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 64% 48%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.28 6.63
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 67% 85%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 80% 64%
10-3-0
Record
11-3-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-2 last 5
Netherlands
Nationality
Brazil
33
Age
28
1.98 m
Height — Belgaroui leads
1.83 m
201 cm
Reach — Belgaroui leads
192 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
80%
Finish rateFinish % — Belgaroui leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
64%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Belgaroui leads
3
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Santos leads
4
6.44
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.43
2.28
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Belgaroui leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.63
64%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Belgaroui leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
48%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Santos leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
85%
11:19
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:43
Teixeira MMA & Fitness-Bethel, CT
Team
American Top Team

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Yousri Belgaroui Octagon Interview | Noche UFC

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout within two rounds; the captions vary between Bel Garoui and Bel agreed.

“eventually lining up a big knockout within two rounds.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 5:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by KO; the caption garbles the surname.

“taking on Jordan Santos. Oh no, I'm going Belgree obviously by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · Dec

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Yousri Belgaroui to win this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 12:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.

“I'm picking Belgaroui, first-round brutal highlight-reel KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 15:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO.

“I'm going to go Yousri Belgaroui by TKO over Djorden Santos.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 78:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui to win.

“Yousri Belgaroui is the very confident pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Belgaroui in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 28:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO in round 3.

“I'm going to pick Belgaroui to win a third-round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout within two rounds; the captions vary between Bel Garoui and Bel agreed.

“eventually lining up a big knockout within two rounds.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKOBelgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Jimbo Ortega MMA29 resolved calls
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 5:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by KO; the caption garbles the surname.

“taking on Jordan Santos. Oh no, I'm going Belgree obviously by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKOBelgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · Dec

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Yousri Belgaroui to win this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · DecBelgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 12:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.

“I'm picking Belgaroui, first-round brutal highlight-reel KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1Belgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 15:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO.

“I'm going to go Yousri Belgaroui by TKO over Djorden Santos.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKOBelgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 78:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui to win.

“Yousri Belgaroui is the very confident pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · to winBelgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Belgaroui in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1Belgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 28:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO in round 3.

“I'm going to pick Belgaroui to win a third-round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R3Belgaroui · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss

8 of 8 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Claude put 82% on Belgaroui.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
75% Belgaroui
25% Santos
PickBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R3ActualBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
82% Belgaroui
18% Santos
PickBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R2ActualBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
73% Belgaroui
27% Santos
PickBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R2ActualBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Belgaroui

All three expect a win by KO/TKO, with win chances from 73% (Gemini) to 82% (Claude).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 28% (Claude) to 40% (Gemini), a 12-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 3

    Win probability: Belgaroui 75%, Santos 25%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Belgaroui 82%, Santos 18%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Belgaroui 73%, Santos 27%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    High confidence
More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 3Round 2Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 3Round 2Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 3

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Belgaroui 75%, Santos 25%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 55% overall: Belgaroui 48%, Santos 7%
Submission, 6% overall: Belgaroui 1%, Santos 5%
Decision, 39% overall: Belgaroui 26%, Santos 13%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Belgaroui 82%, Santos 18%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 60% overall: Belgaroui 55%, Santos 5%
Submission, 12% overall: Belgaroui 5%, Santos 7%
Decision, 28% overall: Belgaroui 22%, Santos 6%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Belgaroui 73%, Santos 27%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 51% overall: Belgaroui 46%, Santos 5%
Submission, 9% overall: Belgaroui 1%, Santos 8%
Decision, 40% overall: Belgaroui 26%, Santos 14%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.