UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman  18 Jul 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US

Tommy McMillen defeats Alberto Montes by KO/TKO

Win Tommy McMillen 11-0-0
Loss Alberto Montes 12-2-0
Watch the fight
KO/TKO · punches

Round 3 · 3:29

McMillen vs Montes — Featherweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

McMillen was the aggressor throughout, pressing forward and setting a punishing pace.

Accumulated body and head strikes wore Montes down across the first two rounds.

McMillen hurt Montes late in round three and raised his output until the stoppage at 3:29.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for McMillen

McMillen is unbeaten and finishes 90% of the time, and the way he does it — turning ugly early collisions into front-headlock chokes and back-takes — travels well against anyone who panics in a scramble. His debut over Zecchini said the pace and composure scaled straight into the UFC.

Case for Montes

Montes is the more polished grappler and the harder man to rush. His lone loss is four years old, and he has since strung together submission wins capped by choking out Ricky Turcios — the kind of neck-hunting patience that can catch an aggressive McMillen diving in.

What We Were Watching For

  • Two chokes hunting one neck: both want the front-headlock and back — whoever wins the first scramble likely finishes.
  • McMillen's undefeated composure against Montes' veteran calm — who forces the other out of rhythm?
  • Montes' one blemish was a knockout — is he vulnerable if McMillen's messy power lands clean early?
  • Cardio into round three: both carry finishing gas, but this is the deepest either has been tested at UFC level.
Records & career stats
McMillen vs Montes
McMillen Montes
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 11.13 4.70
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 58% 53%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 5.06 11.61
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 79% 78%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 90% 67%
10-0-0
Record
12-1-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
Venezuela
28
Age
32
1.83 m
Height — McMillen leads
1.70 m
188 cm
Reach — McMillen leads
175 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
90%
Finish rateFinish % — McMillen leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
67%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — McMillen leads
1
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — Montes leads
7
11.13
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — McMillen leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.70
5.06
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — McMillen leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
11.61
58%
Striking defenseStrike def. — McMillen leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
53%
79%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
78%
11:52
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:56
Red Hawk Academy
Team
Goat Shed

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 35:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Backs McMillen's pressure and toughness to pull out the win, while forecasting a stoppage without specifying its type.

“That's going to be my pick here. I'm going McMillan stoppage. I think he can”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 22:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Picks McMillen's pressure, reach and wrestling to wear Montes down for a second-round TKO.

“And I think McMillan's going to put him away in round two by TKO, knees up”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 27:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Takes McMillen to thrive in a chaotic, competitive matchup with Montes.

“McMillan. He thrives and lives in the chaos. Give me Tommy gun here, man.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Tommy McMillen by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 19:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alberto Montes

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Takes Montes because one grappling exchange can expose his proven front-choke game.

“So, I'm going to go Montes by sub here. Um, that's his win condition. That's how”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 16:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alberto Montes

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Rates Montes as the more technical all-around fighter and picks him to take the upset.

“MMA. And I think Montes is going to come out here and get this upset. Next up in”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 35:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Backs McMillen's pressure and toughness to pull out the win, while forecasting a stoppage without specifying its type.

“That's going to be my pick here. I'm going McMillan stoppage. I think he can”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · to winMcMillen · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 22:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Picks McMillen's pressure, reach and wrestling to wear Montes down for a second-round TKO.

“And I think McMillan's going to put him away in round two by TKO, knees up”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R2McMillen · KO/TKO R3HitHitMiss
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 27:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Takes McMillen to thrive in a chaotic, competitive matchup with Montes.

“McMillan. He thrives and lives in the chaos. Give me Tommy gun here, man.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · to winMcMillen · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 19:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alberto Montes

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Takes Montes because one grappling exchange can expose his proven front-choke game.

“So, I'm going to go Montes by sub here. Um, that's his win condition. That's how”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Montes · to winMcMillen · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Tommy McMillen by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. McMillen · KO/TKOMcMillen · KO/TKO R3HitHitNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 16:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alberto Montes

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Rates Montes as the more technical all-around fighter and picks him to take the upset.

“MMA. And I think Montes is going to come out here and get this upset. Next up in”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Montes · to winMcMillen · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

4 of 6 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 7 sportsbooks

65% Tommy McMillen
35% Alberto Montes

Favoured: McMillen (65%) Called it

McMillen defeats Montes · KO/TKO R3

Final pre-fight line · as of 18 Jul 23:33 UTC · 7 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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