UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Song Yadong defeats Umar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO

Loss Umar Nurmagomedov 20-2-0
Win Song Yadong 24-9-1
KO/TKO · punch

Round 2 · 1:48

Nurmagomedov vs Song — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Song Yadong blew the roof off Oriental Sports Center to close out the show on Saturday, stopping Umar Nurmagomedov in the second round.

After choking out Deiveson Figueiredo in Macau, this performance could catapult Song into the No. 1 contender position in the bantamweight division.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is 20-1 and has never been finished in twenty-one professional fights; the one defeat is a decision to Merab Dvalishvili over five rounds. He wins by making a fight expensive rather than short — 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, 79% takedown defence, and 1.86 significant strikes absorbed per minute, under half what Song gives up.

Case for Song

In May, Song took Deiveson Figueiredo's neck in the second round; in January, Nurmagomedov needed all three to beat the same man on the cards. Song is the harder puncher by a distance — nine knockouts to two — and lands 4.34 significant strikes a minute, but he absorbs 3.81 getting there.

What We Were Watching For

  • A shared opponent four months apart: Nurmagomedov decisioned Deiveson Figueiredo in January, Song submitted him in the second round in May.
  • Nurmagomedov's 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes against Song's 74% takedown defence — and Song's own 0.82, which gives Nurmagomedov almost nothing to defend.
  • Nobody has finished Nurmagomedov. Song has been stopped twice, both by strikes, and has lost six decisions.
  • Both know a fifth round — Nurmagomedov twice, Song three times — and both average at least thirteen minutes a fight.
Records & career stats
Nurmagomedov vs Song
20-1-0
Record
23-9-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-2 last 5
Russia
Nationality
China
30
Age
28
1.73 m
Height
1.73 m
175 cm
Reach — Nurmagomedov leads
170 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
45%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
7
Wins by submissionSub wins — Nurmagomedov leads
4
3.76
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Song leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.26
1.85
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Nurmagomedov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.76
61%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Nurmagomedov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
79%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Nurmagomedov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
74%
13:20
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:39

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Song Yadong octagon interview
Before the fight (1)
Fighter interview▶ You Are an Easy Fight, Yadong! | Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong Interview

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 21:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 30:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“He obviously wins this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 26:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to control the bout with wrestling and win a decision.

“I'm ultimately going to go with the Umar to win this by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 70:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“My official pick is Umar by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 25:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by points.

“Umar by points is the most likely outcome. I got Umar by points.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 61:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision for his striking, wrestling, movement, and conditioning.

“49-46 or 50-45.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 11:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov without committing to a finish or decision.

“I think Umar gets it done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 5:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“I think Umar gets it done and it's likely a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 25:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 52:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate and win a decision.

“I think that Umar has him beat in all levels and is going to win via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 4:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision.

“I'll take Umar Nagamemed off to win a decision here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai preview has Jesse Holland picking Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 36:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Song Yadong

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Song Yadong as the underdog, pointing to his power, sprawl, conditioning, and opportunities during Umar Nurmagomedov's entries.

“I'm gonna go with Song. I think he chins Umar.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: Livid Larry MMA Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; James Blissett Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Jesse Holland Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 21:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 30:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“He obviously wins this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 26:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to control the bout with wrestling and win a decision.

“I'm ultimately going to go with the Umar to win this by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 70:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“My official pick is Umar by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 36:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Song Yadong

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Song Yadong as the underdog, pointing to his power, sprawl, conditioning, and opportunities during Umar Nurmagomedov's entries.

“I'm gonna go with Song. I think he chins Umar.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 17.5%. Song · to winSong · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 25:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by points.

“Umar by points is the most likely outcome. I got Umar by points.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 61:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision for his striking, wrestling, movement, and conditioning.

“49-46 or 50-45.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 11:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov without committing to a finish or decision.

“I think Umar gets it done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · to winSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 5:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“I think Umar gets it done and it's likely a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 25:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

“Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 52:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate and win a decision.

“I think that Umar has him beat in all levels and is going to win via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 4:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision.

“I'll take Umar Nagamemed off to win a decision here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jesse Holland55 resolved calls
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Umar Nurmagomedov · Dec

Fight result: Song Yadong · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai preview has Jesse Holland picking Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · DecSong · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 1 of 14 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Song · KO/TKO · R2

Closest probability Gemini put 30% on Song.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
74% Nurmagomedov
26% Song
PickNurmagomedov · DecisionActualSong · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
78% Nurmagomedov
22% Song
PickNurmagomedov · DecisionActualSong · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
70% Nurmagomedov
30% Song
PickNurmagomedov · DecisionActualSong · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Nurmagomedov

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 70% (Gemini) to 78% (Claude).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 55% (Claude) to 73% (ChatGPT), a 18-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Nurmagomedov by decision

    Win probability: Nurmagomedov 74%, Song 26%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    High confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Nurmagomedov by decision

    Win probability: Nurmagomedov 78%, Song 22%.

    claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug

    High confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Nurmagomedov by decision

    Win probability: Nurmagomedov 70%, Song 30%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    High confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Umar Nurmagomedov is favored to win a five-round decision by repeatedly mixing distance striking with takedowns and control. Song Yadong’s clearest route is damaging Umar during extended boxing exchanges, but the matchup projects to give him too few sustained opportunities.”

What to watch

  • Nurmagomedov’s high takedown volume and chain wrestling attack Song’s 73% historical takedown defense.
  • Nurmagomedov’s superior historical striking accuracy, defense, and absorption metrics suggest more efficient risk management at distance.
  • Song carries the higher striking output and meaningful counterpunching power, creating the main upset threat whenever he keeps the fight standing in open space.

Swing factor

Whether Song can consistently break clinches and return to open-space boxing before Nurmagomedov banks prolonged control time.

More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Nurmagomedov by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Nurmagomedov 74%, Song 26%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 16% overall: Nurmagomedov 4%, Song 12%
Submission, 11% overall: Nurmagomedov 9%, Song 2%
Decision, 73% overall: Nurmagomedov 61%, Song 12%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Umar Nurmagomedov is favored to win a five-round decision by repeatedly mixing distance striking with takedowns and control. Song Yadong’s clearest route is damaging Umar during extended boxing exchanges, but the matchup projects to give him too few sustained opportunities.

Keys to victory

  • Nurmagomedov’s high takedown volume and chain wrestling attack Song’s 73% historical takedown defense.
  • Nurmagomedov’s superior historical striking accuracy, defense, and absorption metrics suggest more efficient risk management at distance.
  • Song carries the higher striking output and meaningful counterpunching power, creating the main upset threat whenever he keeps the fight standing in open space.

X-factor

Whether Song can consistently break clinches and return to open-space boxing before Nurmagomedov banks prolonged control time.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Nurmagomedov by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Nurmagomedov 78%, Song 22%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 22% overall: Nurmagomedov 8%, Song 14%
Submission, 23% overall: Nurmagomedov 20%, Song 3%
Decision, 55% overall: Nurmagomedov 50%, Song 5%

How Claude sees the fight

Umar Nurmagomedov by five-round decision is the modal outcome (~78% overall win probability, in line with the -455/-550 market). His grappling volume (~4 TD/15, 79% TD defense) and low-risk, high-accuracy striking (3.86 landed/min, 1.86 absorbed) map directly onto how Song Yadong has lost judged fights to Petr Yan and Sean O'Malley, with an added wrestling layer Song has never had to answer. Song's live path is early: 0.48 knockdowns/15 and nine career KOs against a chin that hasn't been tested at 135. Expect Umar to bank rounds and hunt a back-take as Song's output dips late.

Keys to victory

  • Grappling gap: Umar ~4 TD/15 and 79% TD defense vs. Song's 0.82 TD/15 and untested defense against elite Dagestani chain wrestling
  • Song's defensive profile (3.81 absorbed/min, 55% striking defense) invites the same round-losing pattern seen vs. Yan and O'Malley over 25 minutes
  • Song's equalizer is real but front-loaded: 0.48 KD/15 and 9 career KOs give him a genuine rounds 1-2 puncher's chance

X-factor

Umar's 7-month layoff vs. Song's sharp 3-month turnaround off a finish; a slow first round in a hostile Shanghai main event could hand Song the early window where his power matters most.

claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Nurmagomedov by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Nurmagomedov 70%, Song 30%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: Nurmagomedov 5%, Song 15%
Submission, 18% overall: Nurmagomedov 15%, Song 3%
Decision, 62% overall: Nurmagomedov 50%, Song 12%

How Gemini sees the fight

Umar Nurmagomedov faces Song Yadong in a five-round bantamweight main event. The fight represents a classic clash of styles: Nurmagomedov's elite combat sambo against Yadong's Sanda-based striking. While Yadong has demonstrated solid takedown defense and finishing ability, Nurmagomedov's relentless grappling pressure is expected to dictate where the fight takes place. His ability to chain takedowns and maintain top control will likely neutralize Yadong's striking threats, leading to a dominant decision victory.

Keys to victory

  • Nurmagomedov's elite chain wrestling and grappling control against Yadong's takedown defense.
  • Yadong's Sanda striking base and heavy hands in standing exchanges.
  • The 5-round main event format testing cardiovascular endurance and defensive wrestling over 25 minutes.

X-factor

Yadong's ability to maintain his knockout power in later rounds while fending off relentless takedown attempts.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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