Lopes vs Garcia — Featherweight · UFC Freedom 250

Lopes ("Diego Lopez") is better and made a career of catching pressure fighters coming in, so he survives Garcia's early rush and finishes him with ground-and-pound in the first round.

Track record: winner called in 2 of 4 resolved picks.

A tiny lean for Diego: once you factor in his grappling and five-round title-fight experience he's the more dangerous overall.

Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks.

Lopes is far more durable than Garcia, who is too open for his own good, so Lopes weathers a chaotic first and knocks him out in the second.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.

Lopes is probably going to beat Garcia despite Bisping loving Garcia. He expects Lopes — who did much of his camp at Oklahoma State — to shoot takedowns and use his jiu-jitsu rather than bang with Garcia, whose finishing power is most dangerous on the feet.

• Expects Lopes to wrestle (Oklahoma State camp) and win on the ground
• May rob fans of the striking battle, since Garcia's edge is on the feet

“Diego Lopes is probably going to beat Steve Garcia. I love Steve Garcia.”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Garcia is a sloppy, very hittable fighter taking a massive step up, while Lopes has gone fifty minutes with Volkanovski and finished Jean Silva. The host thinks Lopes is a step ahead and too sharp, though Lopes tends to go to decision.

• Medium confidence — admits the odds (~63%) are closer than expected
• Garcia's danger is real — seven of his last eight by KO
• A very winnable stylistic matchup for Lopes, not a domination

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Tracy admits he's worried Garcia's long, rangy striking could trouble Lopes, but trusts Lopes's proven iron chin, power and more well-rounded grappling. He sees Lopes as the bigger threat in a firefight and able to take Garcia down and bully him.

• Lopes's chin is battle-tested (Volk x2, Silva, Ige); Garcia's is unproven
• Power and grappling edge — could take Garcia down
• Worried Garcia's slick range striking could make Lopes look lost

“I'm going to lean Diego Lopes by a finish — more ways to win, more well-rounded, iron chin.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Wade thinks fans are sleeping on Garcia, who he believes should be favoured — on a long streak with seven KOs in his last eight. He argues Lopes is easily hittable, and while Lopes owns one of the best chins he's seen, even that chin can eventually be broken, and Garcia is the man to do it.

• Discounts the #2-vs-#9 ranking gap as not indicative
• Lopes is 'addicted to good fights' and will trade — into Garcia's hands
• Admits possible American bias

“I think Steve Garcia beats Diego Lopes.”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

He flips from expecting Garcia to get outclassed: after watching tape he thinks Garcia — a long, lanky southpaw with nasty boxing and reach — out-strikes Lopes. The length helps Garcia see takedowns coming and pile up body and straight shots while Lopes hunts one big shot.

• Reach and length let Garcia counter and read the takedowns
• Garcia's chin means he won't be KO'd
• Self-flags it as a crazy pick / upset

“Steve Garcia is going to pull this one off by decision.”

* He flags it himself as a 'crazy pick.'

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Rashad expressly declined to call it — 'a horrible fight for me to call.' He breaks down both men (Garcia treating it win-win out of Jackson-Wink, a must-win for Lopes) but never commits to a winner. From the UFC on Paramount+ HQ Spotlight panel.