UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman  18 Jul 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US

Dricus Du Plessis defeats Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision

Win Dricus Du Plessis 24-3-0
Loss Kamaru Usman 21-5-0
Watch the fight
Unanimous decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Du Plessis vs Usman — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Du Plessis established the jab and leg kicks early, then landed a hard right hand to the temple that visibly wobbled Usman in round one.

Knees up the middle were the recurring weapon as Du Plessis hurt Usman repeatedly across the opening two rounds.

Usman found stretches of success as the fight wore on, but Du Plessis hurt him again in the fourth and managed the fifth to close out the decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Du Plessis

Du Plessis wins on pressure, pace and finishing. He took the middleweight title off Israel Adesanya and defended it twice against Sean Strickland, and his 87% finish rate — 11 of his 23 wins by submission — comes from an awkward, relentless volume that drowns opponents into the championship rounds. Against a 39-year-old climbing up in weight, five rounds of that pace is the great equalizer.

Case for Usman

Usman wins if his wrestling still fires at 185. One of the most dominant welterweight champions the division has seen, he is built on suffocating top control and a jab — a single submission against eleven decisions tells you he grinds rather than gambles. Du Plessis's one clear vulnerability is exactly Usman's best weapon: Khamzat Chimaev out-wrestled DDP, and if Usman can put him on the mat and hold him there, the pressure never gets going.

What We Were Watching For

  • The wrestling exchanges: Chimaev exposed Du Plessis's takedown defense — can a 39-year-old Usman still shoot and hold top position at a new, heavier weight?
  • Pace vs age: Du Plessis's five-round pressure against Usman moving up a division at 39 — does the tank empty late?
  • The shared Chimaev loss: both men were beaten by Khamzat Chimaev; whose loss looks more fixable in this matchup?
  • Usman's output: he is 2-3 in his last five and hasn't finished a fight in years — can he win rounds without banking control time?
Records & career stats
Du Plessis vs Usman
Du Plessis Usman
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.21 4.13
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 54% 55%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.24 2.86
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 50% 90%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 87% 48%
23-3-0
Record
21-4-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
South Africa
Nationality
Nigeria
32
Age
39
1.85 m
Height — Du Plessis leads
1.83 m
193 cm
Reach
193 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
87%
Finish rateFinish % — Du Plessis leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
48%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
9
11
Wins by submissionSub wins — Du Plessis leads
1
5.21
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Du Plessis leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.13
4.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Usman leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.86
54%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
50%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Usman leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
90%
15:48
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
18:12
CIT MMA
Team
Blackzilians - Boca Raton, FL

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

UFC GamblingAddicts
Hear it — 26:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Picks Dricus Du Plessis by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (23 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 25:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Livid Larry MMA leans to Dricus Du Plessis for a close decision victory over Kamaru Usman.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 59:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Takes Du Plessis by knockout, believing he has enough left to handle Usman with power and pressure.

“Kamar Usman in a big way. So we're going Drius Duplexie by knockout UFC Oklahoma”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 26:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

MMA JOEY picks Dricus Du Plessis to win by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 39:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Picks Du Plessis' five-round pace, body and leg kicking, and youth to produce a third-round TKO over Usman.

“I've got Dricus Du Plessis getting this one done, and I think he's going to TKO Kamaru Usman in round three”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 57:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Takes Du Plessis in a competitive matchup, expecting the layoff to have addressed his defensive wrestling.

“It's a great fight, but I got to side with DDP by a competitive decision here”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 17:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Lucrative James makes Dricus Du Plessis his official UFC Oklahoma City prediction by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 22:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Backs Du Plessis to produce the bigger striking moments and doubts Usman can sustain control.

“it looked awful in the Shawn Brady fight. It looked awful against Usman. We”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 6:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Takes Du Plessis to finish Usman after the late rounds, expecting his pressure to make Usman's wrestling harder to sustain.

“and put him down for good. So, I got Dricus Du Plessis to come out here, get”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 70:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Picks Dricus Du Plessis by a third-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City preview has Jesse Holland picking Dricus Du Plessis by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)

Analyst picks: UFC GamblingAddicts Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; James Blissett Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Half The Battle Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Jesse Holland Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
UFC GamblingAddicts23 resolved calls
UFC GamblingAddicts
Hear it — 26:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Picks Dricus Du Plessis by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (23 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · DecDu Plessis · Dec R5HitHitNot called
Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 25:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Livid Larry MMA leans to Dricus Du Plessis for a close decision victory over Kamaru Usman.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · DecDu Plessis · Dec R5HitHitNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 59:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Takes Du Plessis by knockout, believing he has enough left to handle Usman with power and pressure.

“Kamar Usman in a big way. So we're going Drius Duplexie by knockout UFC Oklahoma”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKODu Plessis · Dec R5HitMissNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 26:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

MMA JOEY picks Dricus Du Plessis to win by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · DecDu Plessis · Dec R5HitHitNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 39:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Picks Du Plessis' five-round pace, body and leg kicking, and youth to produce a third-round TKO over Usman.

“I've got Dricus Du Plessis getting this one done, and I think he's going to TKO Kamaru Usman in round three”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKO · R3Du Plessis · Dec R5HitMissMiss
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 57:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Takes Du Plessis in a competitive matchup, expecting the layoff to have addressed his defensive wrestling.

“It's a great fight, but I got to side with DDP by a competitive decision here”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to winDu Plessis · Dec R5HitNot calledNot called
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 17:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Lucrative James makes Dricus Du Plessis his official UFC Oklahoma City prediction by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKODu Plessis · Dec R5HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 22:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Backs Du Plessis to produce the bigger striking moments and doubts Usman can sustain control.

“it looked awful in the Shawn Brady fight. It looked awful against Usman. We”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to winDu Plessis · Dec R5HitNot calledNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 6:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Takes Du Plessis to finish Usman after the late rounds, expecting his pressure to make Usman's wrestling harder to sustain.

“and put him down for good. So, I got Dricus Du Plessis to come out here, get”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to winDu Plessis · Dec R5HitNot calledNot called
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 70:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

Picks Dricus Du Plessis by a third-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · KO/TKO · R3Du Plessis · Dec R5HitMissMiss
Jesse Holland55 resolved calls
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec

Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City preview has Jesse Holland picking Dricus Du Plessis by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · DecDu Plessis · Dec R5HitHitNot called

11 of 11 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 7 sportsbooks

65% Dricus Du Plessis
35% Kamaru Usman

Favoured: Du Plessis (65%) Called it

Du Plessis defeats Usman · Dec

Final pre-fight line · as of 18 Jul 23:33 UTC · 7 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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