UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Abus Magomedov defeats Michal Oleksiejczuk by Submission
Round 1 · 3:25
Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Magomedov hurt Oleksiejczuk on the feet and scored a knockdown.
The knockdown created the opening to attack on the mat.
Magomedov locked the guillotine and forced the tap at 3:25 of round one.
- Official UFC main-card resultsUFC · UFC Baku main-card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Magomedov
Abusupiyan Magomedov carries a 28-7-1 record built across elite global competition, and his submission grappling — combined with a physical striking game — gives him a multi-threat profile that has troubled opponents at every level. His 4-3 UFC record masks a fighter capable of competing with anyone in the top 15, and a win here with the post-fight Adesanya callout would firmly establish his middleweight ambitions.
Case for Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk enters on the best form of his UFC career — a three-fight win streak showing that the Polish veteran has found a second wind late in his run. His resilient chin and willingness to engage in striking exchanges have kept him competitive against better-credentialed opponents, and against a Magomedov whose UFC consistency has been mixed, a surging Oleksiejczuk is a genuine danger.
What We Were Watching For
- Oleksiejczuk's striking distance management versus Magomedov's grappling setups — how quickly does Magomedov attempt his first takedown?
- Oleksiejczuk's submission defence — his grappling has been tested in the UFC; can he survive if Magomedov establishes top control?
- Whether Magomedov's 4-3 UFC record reflects a quality plateau or a fighter who simply needs the right opponent.
- The post-fight story — Magomedov has called out Adesanya; does a statement win here change how the division views him?
Records & career stats
- 28-7-1
- Record
- 17-8-0
- Source pending
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Source pending
- Nationality
- Poland
- 35
- Age
- 31
- Source pending
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 77%
- —
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- 1
- 09:46
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 06:23
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
MMA Joey takes Abus by early second-round TKO, expecting his speed, power and front-loaded offense to beat Oleksiejczuk before the cardio danger fully arrives.
“I'm going to go Abu Magomedov. I'll say early second round TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
- Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
- Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.
“So give me Abus Magomedov for the win in a fight against a pretty decent finisher.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Sub
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting.
“I'm going to pick Abus Magda by submission.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Bedtime fades Magomedov's durability and cardio, expecting Oleksiejczuk's pressure to take over late and produce a second-round TKO.
“I'm going to go with Oleksiejczuk by round two or three TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Michal Oleksiejczuk by knockout.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
- Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Andrew Richardson Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission Bedtime fades Magomedov's durability and cardio, expecting Oleksiejczuk's pressure to take over late and produce a second-round TKO. “I'm going to go with Oleksiejczuk by round two or three TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO · R2 | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Bedtime fades Magomedov's durability and cardio, expecting Oleksiejczuk's pressure to take over late and produce a second-round TKO. “I'm going to go with Oleksiejczuk by round two or three TKO.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidencePicked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission MMA Joey takes Abus by early second-round TKO, expecting his speed, power and front-loaded offense to beat Oleksiejczuk before the cardio danger fully arrives. “I'm going to go Abu Magomedov. I'll say early second round TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Magomedov · KO/TKO · R2 | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| MMA Joey takes Abus by early second-round TKO, expecting his speed, power and front-loaded offense to beat Oleksiejczuk before the cardio danger fully arrives. “I'm going to go Abu Magomedov. I'll say early second round TKO.” Track record: winner called in 71 of 107 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Abus Magomedov Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction. “So give me Abus Magomedov for the win in a fight against a pretty decent finisher.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Magomedov · to win | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction. “So give me Abus Magomedov for the win in a fight against a pretty decent finisher.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Abus Magomedov · Sub Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting. “I'm going to pick Abus Magda by submission.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Magomedov · Sub | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting. “I'm going to pick Abus Magda by submission.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidencePicked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Michal Oleksiejczuk by knockout. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Michal Oleksiejczuk by knockout. Track record: winner called in 34 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
3 of 5 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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