Abusupiyan Magomedov defeats Michał Oleksiejczuk by Submission
Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk — Middleweight · UFC Baku
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Magomedov hurt Oleksiejczuk on the feet and scored a knockdown.
The knockdown created the opening to attack on the mat.
Magomedov locked the guillotine and forced the tap at 3:25 of round one.
- Official UFC main-card resultsUFC · UFC Baku main-card results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: DFS By The Numbers perfect call; MMA JOEY called it; Bedtime MMA missed.
2 of 3 nailed it · 1 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Magomedov · Sub. Actual Magomedov · Sub R1. Result: Perfect call.
DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: predicted Magomedov · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Magomedov · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
MMA Joey takes Abus by early second-round TKO, expecting his speed, power and front-loaded offense to beat Oleksiejczuk before the cardio danger fully arrives.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Magomedov · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Bedtime fades Magomedov's durability and cardio, expecting Oleksiejczuk's pressure to take over late and produce a second-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 3.06 5.73
- 56% 60%
- 3.34 4.45
- 100% 53%
- 79% 77%
- 28-7-1
- Record
- 17-8-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 09:46
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 06:23
- Germany
- Nationality
- Poland
- UFD Gym · Dusseldorf
- Team
- The Fighting Nerds
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Magomedov
Abusupiyan Magomedov carries a 28-7-1 record built across elite global competition, and his submission grappling — combined with a physical striking game — gives him a multi-threat profile that has troubled opponents at every level. His 4-3 UFC record masks a fighter capable of competing with anyone in the top 15, and a win here with the post-fight Adesanya callout would firmly establish his middleweight ambitions.
Case for Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk enters on the best form of his UFC career — a three-fight win streak showing that the Polish veteran has found a second wind late in his run. His resilient chin and willingness to engage in striking exchanges have kept him competitive against better-credentialed opponents, and against a Magomedov whose UFC consistency has been mixed, a surging Oleksiejczuk is a genuine danger.
What We Were Watching For
- Oleksiejczuk's striking distance management versus Magomedov's grappling setups — how quickly does Magomedov attempt his first takedown?
- Oleksiejczuk's submission defence — his grappling has been tested in the UFC; can he survive if Magomedov establishes top control?
- Whether Magomedov's 4-3 UFC record reflects a quality plateau or a fighter who simply needs the right opponent.
- The post-fight story — Magomedov has called out Adesanya; does a statement win here change how the division views him?
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