UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Muhammad Saidov defeats Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO

Loss Dustin Jacoby 22-10-1
Win Muhammad Saidov 10-0-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 2 · 4:49

Jacoby vs Saidov — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Saidov landed the better strikes and showed speed from the opening round.

He increased the pressure in round two and hurt Jacoby to the body.

A high kick started the sequence that ended with the TKO at 4:49.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Jacoby

Jacoby makes his second start of 2026 after a second-round finish of Julius Walker in February. The UFC preview says this is his chance for a fourth consecutive win, giving the veteran a straightforward route to keep building momentum.

Case for Saidov

Saidov is unbeaten in nine professional fights with eight finishes and makes a quick return after stopping former UFC fighter Luis Henrique da Silva in 63 seconds in May. He trains at GOR MMA alongside Valter Walker, but this is his first UFC appearance against an established light heavyweight.

What We Were Watching For

  • Jacoby's ability to extend a three-fight winning streak against a UFC newcomer.
  • Whether Saidov's eight finishes in nine professional bouts translate against an established opponent.
  • The opening exchanges after Saidov's quick May turnaround.
  • How Jacoby handles the matchup change from Uran Satybaldiev to Saidov.
Records & career stats
Jacoby vs Saidov
22-9-1
Record
9-0-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
United States
Nationality
Russia
38
Age
30
1.91 m
Height — Jacoby leads
1.88 m
193 cm
Reach
Not published
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
68%
Finish rateFinish % — Saidov leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
89%
15
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Jacoby leads
7
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Saidov leads
2
5.31
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Saidov leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.11
4.02
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Saidov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.46
58%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Saidov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
63%
62%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
09:57
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:49
Factory X Muay Thai
Team
Gor MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 9:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.

“when he would KO people. I am going to go with Dustin Jacobe, though. Come on”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 28:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby · Dec

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Leans on Jacoby's veteran kickboxing and experience to outbox Saidov over three rounds, though he considers the debutant live.

“I'll go Dustin Jacoby by veteran savviness.”

* Says the pick could flip after the weigh-ins and further study.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 2:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Jacoby as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“I'm going with Sam Patterson. Next up, my boy Dustin Jacobe. Definitely taking”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Favors Jacoby's higher-level experience, kickboxing, kicks, volume and cardio over Saidov's puncher's chance.

“you got to pick Jacobe. So yeah, I'm going Dustin Jacobe to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 9:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.

“the odds are two to one. So Dustin Jacobe is the pick. Then we have”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 10:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.

“dude. So, I'm going to go with Dustin Jacoby by KO in the first round. Yeah,”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Backs Jacoby’s kickboxing, improved takedown defense and cardio against a slower opponent whose large striking movements tire him out.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; AJ Devito Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Daniel Vreeland Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 9:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.

“when he would KO people. I am going to go with Dustin Jacobe, though. Come on”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Jacoby · to winSaidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 28:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby · Dec

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Leans on Jacoby's veteran kickboxing and experience to outbox Saidov over three rounds, though he considers the debutant live.

“I'll go Dustin Jacoby by veteran savviness.”

* Says the pick could flip after the weigh-ins and further study.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Jacoby · DecSaidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 2:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Jacoby as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“I'm going with Sam Patterson. Next up, my boy Dustin Jacobe. Definitely taking”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Jacoby · to winSaidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Favors Jacoby's higher-level experience, kickboxing, kicks, volume and cardio over Saidov's puncher's chance.

“you got to pick Jacobe. So yeah, I'm going Dustin Jacobe to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Jacoby · KO/TKO · R1Saidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 9:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.

“the odds are two to one. So Dustin Jacobe is the pick. Then we have”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Jacoby · to winSaidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 10:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.

“dude. So, I'm going to go with Dustin Jacoby by KO in the first round. Yeah,”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Jacoby · to winSaidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Daniel Vreeland29 resolved calls
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dustin Jacoby

Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO

Backs Jacoby’s kickboxing, improved takedown defense and cardio against a slower opponent whose large striking movements tire him out.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Jacoby · to winSaidov · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 0 of 7 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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