UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Abubakar Vagaev defeats Saygid Izagakhmaev by unanimous decision

Win Abubakar Vagaev 25-4-0
Loss Saygid Izagakhmaev 22-4-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Vagaev put Izagakhmaev down almost immediately with his first takedown.

He repeated that wrestling formula throughout the contest.

Vagaev defended Izagakhmaev's late push and won the unanimous decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Vagaev

Vagaev is a pro since 2012 with a 24-4 record, including wins over Michel Pereira, Luiz Dutra Jr., Michel Prazeres and Albert Tumenov, according to the UFC preview. His most recent win was over Tumenov in February 2025, so the immediate question is how the layoff affects his first UFC start.

Case for Izagakhmaev

Izagakhmaev enters at 22-3 after a split-decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in his UFC debut last November. The UFC preview says that result ended a five-fight winning streak; avoiding an 0-2 UFC start gives the bout a direct urgency for the sophomore.

What We Were Watching For

  • Vagaev's first UFC minutes after his February 2025 win and subsequent layoff.
  • Whether Izagakhmaev can turn a competitive UFC debut loss into a first promotion win.
  • How two experienced welterweights approach the early exchanges.
  • Whether Vagaev's long decision-heavy record or Izagakhmaev's recent UFC experience carries the fight.
Records & career stats
Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev
Vagaev Izagakhmaev
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 1.8 1.77
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 60% 60%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.2 1.77
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 71% 67%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 21% 64%
24-4-0
Record
22-3-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
Russia
Nationality
Russia
33
Age
31
1.83 m
Height
1.83 m
Not published
Reach
189 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
21%
Finish rateFinish % — Izagakhmaev leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
64%
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Vagaev leads
3
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Izagakhmaev leads
13
1.8
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1.77
2.2
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Izagakhmaev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1.77
60%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
71%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Vagaev leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
15:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Akhmat Fight Club
Team
Nurmagomedov School

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 19:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“this. All right, dude. I'm gonna go with Vagv by decision. I'm not very”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 7:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return.

“a lot more than I trust in Isakmev. So in this matchup, I'm going with Abu”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 44:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“more shots on the feet to edge out a close one. I'll go split decision 2928”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 25:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“wrestler and based off of tape alone, Abubakar is the pick. A very easy pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“decent organizations, but I'm going to go with Abubakar Vakhaev to”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Abubakar Vagaev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 38:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Saygid Izagakhmaev · Dec

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Narrowly favors Izagakhmaev in a competitive fight, citing his craft and stronger back takes despite Vagaev's boxing combinations.

“I'm going to say that Saigid Zamayev pulls off a hard-fought decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 19:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“this. All right, dude. I'm gonna go with Vagv by decision. I'm not very”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to winVagaev · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 38:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Saygid Izagakhmaev · Dec

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Narrowly favors Izagakhmaev in a competitive fight, citing his craft and stronger back takes despite Vagaev's boxing combinations.

“I'm going to say that Saigid Zamayev pulls off a hard-fought decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 33.0%. Izagakhmaev · DecVagaev · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 7:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return.

“a lot more than I trust in Isakmev. So in this matchup, I'm going with Abu”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · DecVagaev · Dec R3HitHitNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 44:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“more shots on the feet to edge out a close one. I'll go split decision 2928”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to winVagaev · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 25:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“wrestler and based off of tape alone, Abubakar is the pick. A very easy pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to winVagaev · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“decent organizations, but I'm going to go with Abubakar Vakhaev to”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to winVagaev · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec

Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Abubakar Vagaev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · DecVagaev · Dec R3HitHitNot called

6 of 7 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.