Abubakar Vagaev defeats Saygid Izagakhmaev by unanimous decision
Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Vagaev put Izagakhmaev down almost immediately with his first takedown.
He repeated that wrestling formula throughout the contest.
Vagaev defended Izagakhmaev's late push and won the unanimous decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Main Card Results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: Ben Duffy perfect call; Michael Chiesa perfect call; JakeGerberMMA called it; HopperoMMA called it; Bedtime MMA called it; We Want Picks called it; Keith Shillan missed; AJ missed.
6 of 8 nailed it · 2 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Ben Duffy Analyst called 13 of 16 Ben Duffy: predicted Vagaev · Decision. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Rates Vagaev as better overall, especially for control on the ground, and expects a dominant decision.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Vagaev · Decision. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Vagaev · to win. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Vagaev · to win. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Vagaev · to win. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Vagaev · to win. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Hit.
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 11 of 15 Keith Shillan: predicted Izagakhmaev · Decision. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Izagakhmaev as the more proven fighter against higher-level opposition and does not weigh the Nicolas Dalby loss heavily.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 15 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Izagakhmaev · Decision. Actual Vagaev · Dec. Result: Miss.
Narrowly favors Izagakhmaev in a competitive fight, citing his craft and stronger back takes despite Vagaev's boxing combinations.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 24-4-0
- Record
- 22-3-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- Not published
- Reach
- 189 cm
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.33
- Not published
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.73
- Not published
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 59%
- Not published
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 100%
- Not published
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Russia
- Nationality
- Russia
- Akhmat Fight Club
- Team
- Nurmagomedov School
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Vagaev
Vagaev is a pro since 2012 with a 24-4 record, including wins over Michel Pereira, Luiz Dutra Jr., Michel Prazeres and Albert Tumenov, according to the UFC preview. His most recent win was over Tumenov in February 2025, so the immediate question is how the layoff affects his first UFC start.
Case for Izagakhmaev
Izagakhmaev enters at 22-3 after a split-decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in his UFC debut last November. The UFC preview says that result ended a five-fight winning streak; avoiding an 0-2 UFC start gives the bout a direct urgency for the sophomore.
What We Were Watching For
- Vagaev's first UFC minutes after his February 2025 win and subsequent layoff.
- Whether Izagakhmaev can turn a competitive UFC debut loss into a first promotion win.
- How two experienced welterweights approach the early exchanges.
- Whether Vagaev's long decision-heavy record or Izagakhmaev's recent UFC experience carries the fight.
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