UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
José Montanha defeats Louie Sutherland by Submission
Round 1 · 1:50
Sutherland vs Montanha — Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Montanha took Sutherland down early and returned him to the canvas when he worked back to his feet.
He flattened Sutherland out and attacked the choke from dominant position.
Sutherland tapped to the rear-naked choke just before the two-minute mark.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld — Preliminary Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Sutherland
Sutherland has finished eight of his eleven career wins by knockout, and he arrives on a rebound: a unanimous-decision win over Tai Tuivasa in May, after being stopped by strikes against Brando Pericic and submitted by Valter Walker in the two fights before that. He also puts in real takedown volume for a heavyweight — 4.95 attempts per 15 minutes — so Montanha cannot assume this stays a standup fight simply because Sutherland's identity is knockout power.
Case for Montanha
Montanha arrives at 6-1 with a record built on finishing: four of his six wins are submissions, including a three-fight run of first-round submissions that took 8:29 in total. His only loss is a 2022 decision to Richard Jacobi. He is making his UFC debut, so there is no Octagon tape and no per-minute UFC numbers on him yet — Sutherland is the first real read anyone gets.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Montanha's takedown entries get past Sutherland's hands before Sutherland's power decides it — eight of Sutherland's eleven wins have come by knockout.
- Montanha's three-fight run of first-round submissions, 8:29 combined, meeting UFC heavyweight competition for the first time.
- Sutherland's own recent form: a decision win over Tuivasa on the heels of being stopped by strikes, then submitted, in the two fights before that — which version turns up.
- A UFC debutant with no Octagon tape against an opponent who has now been finished twice in three fights — whichever way it breaks, it is unlikely to be dull.
Records & career stats
- 11-5-0
- Record
- 6-1-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- England
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 32
- Age
- 29
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 73%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 8
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 0
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- —
- 1.80
- Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- 1.95
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- 35%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- 33%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- 05:01
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Fightzone & Durrant’s Gym London
- Team
- Gile Ribeiro Team
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland · Dec
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Takes Sutherland on the scorecards.
“He's doing all types of stuff like Louis Sutherland low-key was in his bag against Tai Tuivasa, dude. So, I'm going to go with Louis Sutherland to win this one by a decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment.
“I'm taking Luis Sutherland”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland · KO/TKO
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Takes Sutherland to finish Montanha by knockout.
“I'm going to take Luis Southerntherland to KO Jose Montana to Silva.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland · Dec
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Takes Sutherland by a 30-27 scorecard.
“I'm going to go with what I know a lot more about and that is Louis Sutherland's game. And I'm going to say he gets this one done by a greasy decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
- Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland · Dec
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Calls Sutherland the rightful favourite and takes him by decision.
“To win probably a greasy, horrible decision. So, give me Louis Sutherland to win.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Expects Sutherland to win.
“And give me Southerntherland to win here.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Louie Sutherland
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Leans on Sutherland's cardio for a decision win.
“So, I'll take the big man to uh make it two in a row in the UFC hopefully.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: José Montanha · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Expects Sutherland to give up his back and get choked out inside the first round.
“Ground upon Southerntherland gives up his back, a rear naked choke, and Matana wins by a firstround submission.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: José Montanha
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Leans the slight underdog, Montanha.
“We're going to go Montana da Silva for the win in this one.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: José Montanha
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Takes the underdog, Montanha.
“Jose's going to be the pick. I'm going to pick the dog here.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: José Montanha
Fight result: José Montanha · Submission
Backs Montanha to upset Sutherland.
“I'll take the upset here. I'll take Montana to come out here and upset Louis Sutherland”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Hit; Bookie Beatdown Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland · Dec Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Takes Sutherland on the scorecards. “He's doing all types of stuff like Louis Sutherland low-key was in his bag against Tai Tuivasa, dude. So, I'm going to go with Louis Sutherland to win this one by a decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Sutherland on the scorecards. “He's doing all types of stuff like Louis Sutherland low-key was in his bag against Tai Tuivasa, dude. So, I'm going to go with Louis Sutherland to win this one by a decision.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasle
Current pick evidencePicked: José Montanha · Sub · Round 1 Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Expects Sutherland to give up his back and get choked out inside the first round. “Ground upon Southerntherland gives up his back, a rear naked choke, and Matana wins by a firstround submission.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · Sub · R1 | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
| Expects Sutherland to give up his back and get choked out inside the first round. “Ground upon Southerntherland gives up his back, a rear naked choke, and Matana wins by a firstround submission.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment. “I'm taking Luis Sutherland” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment. “I'm taking Luis Sutherland” Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland · KO/TKO Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Takes Sutherland to finish Montanha by knockout. “I'm going to take Luis Southerntherland to KO Jose Montana to Silva.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · KO/TKO | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Sutherland to finish Montanha by knockout. “I'm going to take Luis Southerntherland to KO Jose Montana to Silva.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: José Montanha Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Leans the slight underdog, Montanha. “We're going to go Montana da Silva for the win in this one.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Leans the slight underdog, Montanha. “We're going to go Montana da Silva for the win in this one.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland · Dec Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Takes Sutherland by a 30-27 scorecard. “I'm going to go with what I know a lot more about and that is Louis Sutherland's game. And I'm going to say he gets this one done by a greasy decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Sutherland by a 30-27 scorecard. “I'm going to go with what I know a lot more about and that is Louis Sutherland's game. And I'm going to say he gets this one done by a greasy decision.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland · Dec Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Calls Sutherland the rightful favourite and takes him by decision. “To win probably a greasy, horrible decision. So, give me Louis Sutherland to win.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Sutherland the rightful favourite and takes him by decision. “To win probably a greasy, horrible decision. So, give me Louis Sutherland to win.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: José Montanha Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Takes the underdog, Montanha. “Jose's going to be the pick. I'm going to pick the dog here.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Takes the underdog, Montanha. “Jose's going to be the pick. I'm going to pick the dog here.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Expects Sutherland to win. “And give me Southerntherland to win here.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Expects Sutherland to win. “And give me Southerntherland to win here.”
Hear it — 27:14
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record →
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: José Montanha Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Backs Montanha to upset Sutherland. “I'll take the upset here. I'll take Montana to come out here and upset Louis Sutherland” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Backs Montanha to upset Sutherland. “I'll take the upset here. I'll take Montana to come out here and upset Louis Sutherland” Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Bookie Beatdown
Bookie Beatdown
Current pick evidencePicked: Louie Sutherland Fight result: José Montanha · Submission Leans on Sutherland's cardio for a decision win. “So, I'll take the big man to uh make it two in a row in the UFC hopefully.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Leans on Sutherland's cardio for a decision win. “So, I'll take the big man to uh make it two in a row in the UFC hopefully.” Track record: winner called in 19 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
4 of 11 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.