UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry  15 Aug 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US

Chidi Njokuani defeats Joel Álvarez by unanimous decision

Win Chidi Njokuani 26-12-0
Loss Joel Álvarez 23-5-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Njokuani vs Álvarez · UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

This was a striking match fought almost entirely at distance. UFC’s own prelim report calls it a "slightly more ramped up sparring session", with both men trading from range rather than committing to anything that would change the shape of the fight.

Njokuani won it on volume and variety. Across all three rounds he was the more active fighter, working every target while avoiding anything significant coming back. The judges returned 30–27, 30–27 and 29–28 in his favour.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Njokuani

The official UFC card lists Njokuani in the red corner for this three-round welterweight bout. His documented UFC profile supplies the record and performance context for the matchup.

Case for Álvarez

The official UFC card lists Álvarez in the blue corner. His public UFC profile records a long finishing résumé, so this preview stays with that sourced record rather than inferring a late-replacement narrative.

What We Were Watching For

  • Which fighter establishes the first sustained exchange at welterweight?
  • Can Álvarez turn a close exchange into one of his documented finishing sequences?
  • Does Njokuani make the contest a measured three-round striking fight?
Records & career stats
Njokuani Álvarez
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.78 4.59
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 57% 48%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.51 4.13
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 76% 48%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 64% 96%
25-12-0
Record
23-4-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
Spain
37
Age
33
1.91 m
Height — Njokuani leads
1.88 m
203 cm
Reach — Njokuani leads
196 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
64%
Finish rateFinish % — Álvarez leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
96%
15
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Njokuani leads
5
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Álvarez leads
17
5.78
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Njokuani leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.59
3.51
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Njokuani leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.13
57%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Njokuani leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
48%
76%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Njokuani leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
48%
09:41
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:19
One Kick’s Gym / Njokuani Muay Thai
Team
Centro Deportivo Tíbet

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Chidi Njokuani · Dec

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Backs Njokuani to win a decision over Álvarez.

“I'm going to go with Chidi Njokuani to win this.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez for his grappling and kickboxing edges without a final method call.

“I'm going Alvarez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Michael Chiesa

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez because he sees more paths to win and questions Njokuani's confidence after the prior loss.

“I got to go with Joel Alvarez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
MMA JOEY

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Picks Álvarez by first-round guillotine submission in the replacement-aware matchup segment.

“I'm going to go Yoel Alvarez first round guillotine submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez's striking and backs him over Njokuani.

“I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez getting this one done. He should win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Selects Álvarez in the full-card prediction segment.

“I'm going to go Alvarez for the win there.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
JakeGerberMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Sub

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Predicts Álvarez to club and submit Njokuani, without a single round call.

“Joel Alvarez to get this one done by a submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Dec

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez as more reliable under adversity and ultimately selects a decision despite acknowledging multiple methods are possible.

“Give me Alvarez to win. I'll take Alvarez to win by decision in this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
HopperMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Dec

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez after noting Njokuani's recent form, but expects a decision rather than a finish.

“I'm going to go with Yoel Alvarez. I'm going to pick him to win this one by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Half The Battle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Picks Álvarez to break Njokuani down down the stretch, without a formal finish-method call.

“I'm gonna go with Joel Alvarez to come out here and break Chitty down the stretch.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Bookie Beatdown

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Both hosts agree on Álvarez; only one specifies submission, so the channel consensus is recorded winner-only.

“I think Alvarez is going to sub him. Yeah, I got Alvarez as well.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
View full track record (36 calls)
Chris Schweppe

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Joel Alvarez by second-round submission.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Alexander K. Lee

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Joel Alvarez.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (23 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Bookie Beatdown Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Alexander K. Lee Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Chidi Njokuani · Dec

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Backs Njokuani to win a decision over Álvarez.

“I'm going to go with Chidi Njokuani to win this.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Njokuani · DecNjokuani · Dec R3HitHitNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez for his grappling and kickboxing edges without a final method call.

“I'm going Alvarez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez because he sees more paths to win and questions Njokuani's confidence after the prior loss.

“I got to go with Joel Alvarez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Picks Álvarez by first-round guillotine submission in the replacement-aware matchup segment.

“I'm going to go Yoel Alvarez first round guillotine submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub · R1Njokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez's striking and backs him over Njokuani.

“I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez getting this one done. He should win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Selects Álvarez in the full-card prediction segment.

“I'm going to go Alvarez for the win there.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Sub

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Predicts Álvarez to club and submit Njokuani, without a single round call.

“Joel Alvarez to get this one done by a submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · SubNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Dec

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez as more reliable under adversity and ultimately selects a decision despite acknowledging multiple methods are possible.

“Give me Alvarez to win. I'll take Alvarez to win by decision in this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · DecNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Dec

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Favors Álvarez after noting Njokuani's recent form, but expects a decision rather than a finish.

“I'm going to go with Yoel Alvarez. I'm going to pick him to win this one by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · DecNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Picks Álvarez to break Njokuani down down the stretch, without a formal finish-method call.

“I'm gonna go with Joel Alvarez to come out here and break Chitty down the stretch.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Bookie Beatdown36 resolved calls
Bookie Beatdown

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Both hosts agree on Álvarez; only one specifies submission, so the channel consensus is recorded winner-only.

“I think Alvarez is going to sub him. Yeah, I got Alvarez as well.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
View full track record (36 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Joel Alvarez by second-round submission.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub · R2Njokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Alexander K. Lee23 resolved calls
Alexander K. Lee

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joel Álvarez

Fight result: Chidi Njokuani · Decision

MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Joel Alvarez.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (23 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to winNjokuani · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 1 of 13 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.