UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres  27 Jun 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ

Asu Almabayev defeats Charles Johnson by Submission

Win Asu Almabayev 24-3-0
Loss Charles Johnson 19-9-0
Submission · Suloev stretch

Round 3 · 3:33

Almabayev vs Johnson — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The fight was competitive on the feet early, but Almabayev repeatedly moved it into grappling phases.

Johnson had to defend the wrestling instead of settling into his boxing rhythm.

Almabayev secured the Suloev stretch at 3:33 of round three.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Almabayev

Almabayev is the ranked gate-keeper at 125 with a 24-3 record reflecting sustained excellence — 7-1 inside the UFC and a near-complete game. His submission threat from multiple positions and his ability to grind down strikers through wrestling control give him a clear path to a dominant performance against a Johnson who has struggled with grappling-heavy opponents.

Case for Johnson

Johnson's 8-6 UFC record undersells his quality — he's gone the distance with ranked flyweights and carries genuine output and knockout power. His professional experience and striking volume give him a real path to victory if he can dictate the stand-up and avoid takedowns in the early rounds when Almabayev is freshest.

What We Were Watching For

  • Almabayev's wrestling entries — the flyweight division lives and dies on grappling control; if he establishes top position early, Johnson's striking threat diminishes rapidly.
  • Johnson's early striking volume — his best chance is building a lead on the feet in rounds one and two before Almabayev's cardio advantage compounds.
  • Almabayev's submission chains — his grappling is multi-dimensional; a dominant position almost always leads to submission attempts.
  • Round three — Almabayev has been into championship rounds; Johnson has a mixed late-fight record at flyweight.
Records & career stats
Almabayev vs Johnson
23-3-0
Record
19-8-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
Kazakhstan
Nationality
United States
32
Age
35
1.63 m
Height — Johnson leads
1.75 m
165 cm
Reach — Johnson leads
178 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Johnson leads
8
—
Wins by submissionSub wins
—
2.28
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Johnson leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.60
1.94
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Almabayev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.93
54%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
44%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Johnson leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
13:03
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:41
Dar Team
Team
Fusion X-Cel

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 22:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Bedtime picks Almabayev by decision, expecting the grappling and control to carry the minutes while acknowledging Johnson's late chaos threat.

“I'm going to go with Almabayev by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 20:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

MMA Joey picks Almabayev because his chain wrestling and grappling are the clearest repeatable edge against Johnson.

“I'm going to go Asu Almabayev.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 27:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Asu Almabayev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 13:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Johnson

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.

“I'm going to go Charles Johnson for this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; James Blissett Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 22:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Bedtime picks Almabayev by decision, expecting the grappling and control to carry the minutes while acknowledging Johnson's late chaos threat.

“I'm going to go with Almabayev by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Almabayev · DecAlmabayev · Sub R3HitMissNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 20:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

MMA Joey picks Almabayev because his chain wrestling and grappling are the clearest repeatable edge against Johnson.

“I'm going to go Asu Almabayev.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Almabayev · to winAlmabayev · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 13:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Johnson

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.

“I'm going to go Charles Johnson for this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Johnson · to winAlmabayev · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 27:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Almabayev · DecAlmabayev · Sub R3HitMissNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Asu Almabayev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Almabayev · DecAlmabayev · Sub R3HitMissNot called

4 of 5 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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