UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Sean Woodson defeats Jack Jenkins by split decision

Loss Jack Jenkins 14-5-0
Win Sean Woodson 14-2-1
Split decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Jenkins vs Woodson — Featherweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Woodson won two judges' scorecards 29-28, while Jenkins won the third 29-28.

The bout took place at Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China, on August 29, 2026.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Jenkins

Jenkins shoots — 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes — and lands 4.48 significant strikes a minute while giving up 2.95. Nine of his fourteen wins ended early. The weakness his record names is the neck: three of his four defeats are submissions.

Case for Woodson

Woodson gives up nothing at range and has 25 centimetres of it to give: 198 cm of reach against 173, 5.57 significant strikes landed a minute, and 85% takedown defence. He also absorbs 4.18 a minute and has taken eight of his sixteen fights to the judges.

What We Were Watching For

  • A 25-centimetre reach difference — Woodson at 198 cm, Jenkins at 173.
  • Jenkins's 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes against Woodson's 85% takedown defence.
  • Three of Jenkins's four career defeats are submissions. Woodson has one.
  • Woodson has not fought since Dan Ige stopped him in April 2025; Jenkins last fought that September.
Records & career stats
Jenkins vs Woodson
Jenkins Woodson
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.25 5.39
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 58% 59%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.08 4.04
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 74% 86%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 64% 36%
14-4-0
Record
13-2-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Australia
Nationality
United States
31
Age
32
1.70 m
Height — Woodson leads
1.89 m
173 cm
Reach — Woodson leads
198 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
64%
Finish rateFinish % — Jenkins leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
36%
6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Jenkins leads
4
3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Jenkins leads
1
4.25
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Woodson leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.39
3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Jenkins leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.04
58%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
74%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Woodson leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
86%
13:13
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:06
Absolute Mixed Martial Arts
Team
Legacy MMS

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 10:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO while acknowledging a decision remains possible.

“I'm going to say Jack Jenkins by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 12:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO without a stated round.

“I'm going to go with Jenkins by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 19:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by decision in a close matchup, citing his damaging leg kicks.

“Jack Jenkins by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 23:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by decision, noting routes through leg kicks, power, and grappling.

“I'm going to take Jack Jenkins for the upset.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 16:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins, pointing to Sean Woodson's vulnerable legs.

“I'm picking Jack Jenkins.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 29:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins for an upset through his leg kicks and game plan.

“I'm going to pick Jack Jenkins to upset Shawn Woodson.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 9:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“I'm going Shawn Woodson by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 23:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson on his substantial height and reach advantage, expecting him to control the striking from distance.

“Shawn Woodson to go out and get it done. That is going to be my pick for this matchup.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“I'm going to go Sean Woodson by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 22:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“Sean Woodson by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 10:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO while acknowledging a decision remains possible.

“I'm going to say Jack Jenkins by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · KO/TKOWoodson · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 9:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“I'm going Shawn Woodson by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · DecWoodson · Dec R3HitHitNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 23:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson on his substantial height and reach advantage, expecting him to control the striking from distance.

“Shawn Woodson to go out and get it done. That is going to be my pick for this matchup.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · to winWoodson · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 12:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO without a stated round.

“I'm going to go with Jenkins by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · KO/TKOWoodson · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 19:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by decision in a close matchup, citing his damaging leg kicks.

“Jack Jenkins by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · DecWoodson · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 23:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by decision, noting routes through leg kicks, power, and grappling.

“I'm going to take Jack Jenkins for the upset.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · DecWoodson · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 16:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins, pointing to Sean Woodson's vulnerable legs.

“I'm picking Jack Jenkins.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · to winWoodson · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“I'm going to go Sean Woodson by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · DecWoodson · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 22:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“Sean Woodson by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · DecWoodson · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 29:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins for an upset through his leg kicks and game plan.

“I'm going to pick Jack Jenkins to upset Shawn Woodson.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · to winWoodson · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

4 of 10 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Woodson · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 59% on Woodson.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
41% Jenkins
59% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
46% Jenkins
54% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
45% Jenkins
55% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Woodson

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 54% (Claude) to 59% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 60% (Claude) to 69% (ChatGPT), a 9-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Woodson by decision

    Win probability: Jenkins 41%, Woodson 59%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Woodson by decision

    Win probability: Jenkins 46%, Woodson 54%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Woodson by decision

    Win probability: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Low confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Sean Woodson is the 59% pick over Jack Jenkins, with a Woodson decision the most likely single outcome at 42%. The locked distribution favors a fight reaching the scorecards, so no finish round is predicted.”

What to watch

  • The locked distribution gives Woodson a 59% overall win probability compared with Jenkins' 41%.
  • Woodson by decision is the leading individual outcome at 42%.
  • The combined decision probability is 69%, making a scorecard result the model's clearest expectation.

Swing factor

Jenkins' 31% combined chance of a knockout, submission, or decision win leaves a meaningful upset path despite Woodson's model edge.

More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Woodson by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Jenkins 41%, Woodson 59%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 26% overall: Jenkins 10%, Woodson 16%
Submission, 5% overall: Jenkins 4%, Woodson 1%
Decision, 69% overall: Jenkins 27%, Woodson 42%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Sean Woodson is the 59% pick over Jack Jenkins, with a Woodson decision the most likely single outcome at 42%. The locked distribution favors a fight reaching the scorecards, so no finish round is predicted.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Woodson a 59% overall win probability compared with Jenkins' 41%.
  • Woodson by decision is the leading individual outcome at 42%.
  • The combined decision probability is 69%, making a scorecard result the model's clearest expectation.

X-factor

Jenkins' 31% combined chance of a knockout, submission, or decision win leaves a meaningful upset path despite Woodson's model edge.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Woodson by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Jenkins 46%, Woodson 54%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 34% overall: Jenkins 16%, Woodson 18%
Submission, 6% overall: Jenkins 3%, Woodson 3%
Decision, 60% overall: Jenkins 27%, Woodson 33%

How Claude sees the fight

Length versus pressure. Sean Woodson is a modest favorite (about -149/-164; Jack Jenkins drifted +105 to +118/+128). Woodson's jab-and-move range game and 85% takedown defense blunt Jenkins' weakest tool (20% takedown accuracy). Jenkins answers with 61% striking accuracy, lower absorption (2.95/min) and the body/leg-kick attrition that beat Ramon Taveras. I shade slightly off the line toward Jenkins on efficiency, Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff and age 34, and the travel split (Jenkins a 2-hour shift, Woodson 13). Decision remains the modal outcome in the locked distribution.

Keys to victory

  • 10-inch reach gap (68 vs 78) sets the range; Jack Jenkins' 20% takedown accuracy against Sean Woodson's 85% takedown defense removes the clinch equalizer
  • Sean Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff (last fought Apr 2025) at age 34 plus a 13-hour zone shift, against Jack Jenkins' 2-hour trip from Australia
  • Sean Woodson absorbs 4.18 strikes/min; opponents who closed the gap got results: Saldana knockdowns, Ige R3 TKO, Erosa submission, the Jack Jenkins template

X-factor

Distance control: the cause of Sean Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff is unreported, so if his range management slips at all, Jack Jenkins' close-range accumulation becomes the live path to a finish.

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Woodson by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 29% overall: Jenkins 12%, Woodson 17%
Submission, 8% overall: Jenkins 5%, Woodson 3%
Decision, 63% overall: Jenkins 28%, Woodson 35%

How Gemini sees the fight

Sean Woodson's massive 10-inch reach and 7-inch height advantages present a difficult puzzle for Jack Jenkins. While Jenkins possesses the heavy calf kicks and wrestling capabilities (1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes) necessary to close the distance and ground the fight, Woodson's technical out-fighting and intercepting knees will make entries perilous. Expect Woodson to manage the range effectively with his jab and linear strikes, frustrating Jenkins on the outside to secure a competitive decision victory.

Keys to victory

  • Woodson possesses a drastic physical advantage, boasting a 7-inch height and 10-inch reach discrepancy over Jenkins.
  • Jenkins must utilize his heavy calf kicks to compromise Woodson's movement and help bridge the vast striking distance.
  • Jenkins averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, offering a clear grappling path to bypass Woodson's outside striking.

X-factor

Jenkins' ability to safely navigate Woodson's intercepting step-in knees when attempting to enter the pocket or shoot for takedowns.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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