UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Hector Santiago defeats Lawrence Lui by KO/TKO

Loss Lawrence Lui 8-2-0
Win Hector Santiago 7-1-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 2 · 0:53

Lui vs Santiago — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Hector Santiago stopped Lawrence Lui with strikes.

The knockout came at 0:53 of Round 2.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Lui

Lui has won five straight and gets there the slow way: five of his nine professional fights reached the judges, and four of his eight wins are decisions. Nothing on the record says he needs a finish, and nothing on it says he has ever been submitted.

Case for Santiago

Santiago is 6-1 with five of his six wins ending early and only one fight in seven reaching a scorecard. At 33 he has the shorter career and the sharper end to it — his last outing was a knockout at 3:42 of the first.

What We Were Watching For

  • Five of Lui's nine fights went to a decision. One of Santiago's seven did.
  • Santiago finished five of his six wins; Lui finished four of his eight.
  • Santiago's only defeat is a second-round rear-naked choke. Lui has never been submitted.
  • Lui last fought in January and is on a five-fight run; Santiago has won two since that defeat.
Records & career stats
Lui vs Santiago
Lui Santiago
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.96 5.1
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 64% 46%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.56 5.44
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 100% 100%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 50% 86%
8-1-0
Record
6-1-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
New Zealand
Nationality
Brazil
30
Age
33
1.73 m
Height — Lui leads
1.68 m
184 cm
Reach
Not published
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
50%
Finish rateFinish % — Santiago leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
86%
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Santiago leads
6
0
Wins by submissionSub wins
0
3.96
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Santiago leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.1
3.56
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Lui leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.44
64%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Lui leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
100%
10:40
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
05:53
City Kickboxing
Team
Team Lucas Mineiro

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Octagon interview

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 5:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui as the more well-rounded fighter without fixing a method.

“I'm going to go with Lawrence Louie to win this one 'cause he's a little bit more well-rounded.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 17:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui to outwork Hector Santiago without committing to one finishing method.

“I will predict that Lawrence Lui wins.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 6:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui's striking and grappling mix to win a decision.

“Lawrence Louie ... beats Hector Santiago by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 15:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui by decision, citing his CKB experience, jab, leg kicks, and wrestling.

“Give me Lawrence Lui by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 3:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Sub

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Makes Lawrence Lui by submission the featured bet.

“For the best bet show, I'll go Lawrence Lui by submission at plus 400.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 16:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks picks Lawrence Lui by decision.

“Lawrence Lui by decision. Lawrence Lui should win it.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 5:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui by decision.

“Lawrence Lui by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 18:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui by second-round rear-naked-choke submission.

“Lawrence will win via submission, second-round rear choke victory.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 6:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Hector Santiago by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to go with Hector Santiago knocking out Lawrence Louie in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 31:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Hector Santiago

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Hector Santiago as the live underdog in a standing fight.

“I'll take Santiago to come out here and upset Lou in China.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 5:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui as the more well-rounded fighter without fixing a method.

“I'm going to go with Lawrence Louie to win this one 'cause he's a little bit more well-rounded.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · to winSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 6:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Hector Santiago by first-round knockout.

“I'm going to go with Hector Santiago knocking out Lawrence Louie in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 23.5%. Santiago · KO/TKO · R1Santiago · KO/TKO R2HitHitMiss
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 17:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui to outwork Hector Santiago without committing to one finishing method.

“I will predict that Lawrence Lui wins.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · to winSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 6:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui's striking and grappling mix to win a decision.

“Lawrence Louie ... beats Hector Santiago by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · DecSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 15:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui by decision, citing his CKB experience, jab, leg kicks, and wrestling.

“Give me Lawrence Lui by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · DecSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 3:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Sub

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Makes Lawrence Lui by submission the featured bet.

“For the best bet show, I'll go Lawrence Lui by submission at plus 400.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · SubSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 16:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks picks Lawrence Lui by decision.

“Lawrence Lui by decision. Lawrence Lui should win it.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · DecSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 5:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Dec

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui by decision.

“Lawrence Lui by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · DecSantiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 18:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lawrence Lui · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Lawrence Lui by second-round rear-naked-choke submission.

“Lawrence will win via submission, second-round rear choke victory.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · Sub · R2Santiago · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 31:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Hector Santiago

Fight result: Hector Santiago · KO/TKO

Picks Hector Santiago as the live underdog in a standing fight.

“I'll take Santiago to come out here and upset Lou in China.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 23.5%. Santiago · to winSantiago · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called

Only 2 of 10 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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