Track Record Methodology

Method and round are independent details of a correct winner call. A scorecard reading 99 resolved calls, then 67 winner hits, 34 method hits, and 5 round hits is not four comparable rates: method and round can only score inside the correct-winner sample. What makes a round call eligible is not the same test as method — see Round called above.

Every row uses the same resolved-call width. Only its Hit and Miss segments are drawn; any remaining space is intentionally blank. That blank space keeps a method, round, or underdog result in proportion to the full resolved record instead of stretching a smaller sample across the whole chart. The Underdog row counts only picks with a known pre-fight price.

Where a step shows a sentence instead of a number, its denominator is zero, and the sentence says which of two different things happened. “Calls the winner, not the round” means the analyst has never named a round — a style, not a failure. “Named rounds — none on a correct call yet” means they do name rounds, but none has yet landed on a correct call whose result could settle it. Neither is shown as “0 of 0” or as a zero bar, because a zero would state something false in both cases. A genuinely earned zero — a 0 of 1 on someone who named a method on their one qualifying call and got it wrong — keeps its real numbers and is never hidden.

On 19 August 2026, across the 26 analysts with a shown record, the resolved-call counts ran from 5 to 99, with a median of 27.5. A record of 67% correct over 28 calls is consistent with a true rate anywhere between roughly 49% and 82% (a 95% Wilson interval) — a span of about 33 points. The same 67% over 99 calls narrows to about 57% to 75%.

The practical consequence: at these sample sizes most differences between two analysts are not distinguishable, and a higher percentage on a smaller sample is not evidence of a better analyst. This is why every figure on the site is published with its denominator, why records below five resolved calls show no ratio at all, and why a larger sample is worth more than a higher percentage when comparing two records.

For the analysts as a group rather than one at a time, the dated analyst accuracy study reports how often their logged picks were right and whether the analyst majority beat simply picking the favourite, with the same denominators and exclusions described here.

For a bout to qualify, the consensus must be captured before its event starts, frozen at that boundary, and be less than two hours old. The selected fighter must have a strictly lower consensus chance of winning than their opponent. Tied markets do not create an underdog.

We use the frozen pre-event consensus so later market movement cannot change a historical underdog result. The metric does not use a price at the moment an analyst made a pick.

The analyst directory always includes an Underdog row. A pick qualifies once it has a pre-fight price: the frozen pre-event sportsbook consensus described above when one was captured, or, when it was not, a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history for that fight. The row shows only the qualifying picks that backed the underdog, split into hits and misses; it states when there are no qualifying underdog calls.

This is a wider net than Correct underdog calls, which uses the sportsbook consensus only. The row uses this wider net; it remains separate from the sportsbook-only underdog call count.

Winner accuracy is the number of correct winner calls divided by all resolved winner calls. The rankings board orders analysts by exact hit-rate fractions; each displayed percentage keeps its record denominator beside it. Analysts with the same exact hit rate share a rank. Within a tie, the larger sample appears first; equal-sized samples use a consistent order.

A ranking position requires at least 20 resolved calls. Records with 5 to 19 calls remain listed with their Winner accuracy but without a rank or uncertainty range; records below five show counts without a percentage. Each ranked record also shows a 95% Wilson interval to make sample uncertainty visible. The interval describes uncertainty in the observed hit rate; it does not measure skill or performance against betting markets.

The analyst directory ranks each selected metric within its selected period. Minimum eligible calls are Last event: 6; Last 5 events: 10; Last 20 events: 20; All time: 40. Each metric qualifies on its own denominator, rather than on Winner call volume. Below-minimum records retain their percentage and exact sample without a rank; a period can have no qualified analysts for a metric. These minimums do not guarantee reliability. The separate Winner accuracy board above retains its 20-call minimum.

Method, Round, and Underdog stay as separate measures on analyst scorecards. Method and Round are scored only within the eligible correct-winner calls; Underdog uses calls with a qualifying known pre-fight price.

Winner accuracy is currently the main comparison measure. Its ranking uses a minimum sample and publishes the underlying counts and uncertainty range so readers can assess the evidence.

When a rule changes — a new metric, a changed eligibility test, a different floor. The version number increases and the change is dated here. Figures published under an earlier version stand as they were; they are not retrospectively restated, because the record of what we said at the time is itself part of the record.

When a data correction is made — a mis-logged pick, a wrong result, a source that turns out not to support a claim. The affected figures are restated in full and the correction is marked on the analyst’s own page. Corrections are not versioning; they are fixes, and they are never quietly absorbed into a new version.

Version 7, 11 October 2026. Increased analyst-directory per-metric ranking minimums from 1/3/5/5 to 6/10/20/40 calls for Last event, Last 5 events, Last 20 events and All time respectively. Below-minimum records remain visible without rank. The separate Winner accuracy board’s 20-call rule, metric definitions and call records are unchanged.

Version 6, 10 October 2026. Corrected the public ranking floor: a position now requires at least 20 resolved calls, rather than five. Records with 5 to 19 calls are now listed with Winner accuracy and their denominator, but no rank or uncertainty range; records below five show counts only. No call records changed.

Version 5, 9 October 2026. Winner accuracy became the default comparison measure, and the earlier public comparison display was retired. Existing call records and separate metric definitions remain unchanged.

Version 2, 18 August 2026. Added the scorecard funnel to the analyst directory and defined how to read it; documented the two reasons a metric can have a zero denominator; published the sample-size arithmetic above. No metric definition changed and no published figure moved.

Version 1. Winner, method, round, perfect and underdog calls as defined above.