Navajo Stirling defeats Jan Błachowicz by KO/TKO
Błachowicz vs Stirling — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Blachowicz’s stiff jab forced Stirling to a knee in the opening exchanges. Stirling answered with a clean right hand.
The right hand sent Blachowicz backwards, and Stirling chased him to the mat. Stirling then worked with ground-and-pound.
Heavy ground-and-pound opened Blachowicz until the referee stepped in at 2:56 of round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade main card results
Watch
More from this fight.
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Signature moments
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks called it; Michael Chiesa called it; Half The Battle called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; MMAPREDICTIONGURU called it; JakeGerberMMA called it; James Lynch called it; Bookie Beatdown called it; KennyOkoyeMMA called it; Chael Sonnen called it; The MMA Guru missed; AJ missed; Bedtime MMA missed; HopperoMMA missed.
10 of 14 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Stirling · to win. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Says he would rather fade Stirling, but takes him anyway on Blachowicz being 43 and coming off a fight he nearly lost in the second round.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Stirling · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Picked Stirling because he does not think Blachowicz, carrying injuries and age, can find his rhythm if it is disrupted, and sees no plan B for him. Explicitly said he does not expect a finish.
“I don't think [Stirling] gets him out of there inside the distance. I think this fight does go 15 minutes.”
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Stirling · to win. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Has been fading Blachowicz for years and thinks Stirling's range, speed, timing and wrestling defence catch the 43-year-old at the perfect time. Explicitly refuses to call the method.
“I don't know if it's going to be a knockout or a decision, but I am going to pick [Navajo Stirling].”
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Stirling · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Not in love with Stirling and criticises his fight IQ against Cutelaba, but the 15-year age gap, higher volume, speed, cardio and takedown defence beat a 43-year-old, damaged Blachowicz.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Stirling · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Rates Blachowicz the better overall fighter but thinks he is slowing, keeps losing close calls with the judges, and that Stirling's range, leg kicks and clinch work win a competitive decision.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Stirling · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
A self-described Blachowicz fan, he says Jan has slowed enough that Stirling catches him at the right time, staying a step ahead behind the jab and leg kicks.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 17 of 24 James Lynch: predicted Stirling · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Argues Stirling's recent wins are over weak opposition and this should be closer to a pick'em, but bases the pick on Blachowicz being 43 and getting dropped by Guskov.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 24 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 14 of 24 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Stirling · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Blachowicz is 43 and a step slow, while Stirling is 28, 6'4" and still improving; expects Stirling to be quicker to the punch and win at range, but thinks Blachowicz is too durable to finish.
“[Stirling] by decision would be the official pick.”
Track record: winner called in 14 of 24 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Stirling · to win. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Calls Stirling the younger, more athletic fighter whose low kicks and movement will force the older Blachowicz to chase, while stressing he is not confident.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Chael Sonnen AnalystFighter track record building — 2 resolved Chael Sonnen: predicted Stirling · to win. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Framed it as Stirling's speed against Blachowicz's power and noted that in four-ounce gloves power often beats speed, but closed by saying the rankings have this matchup wrong and the oddsmakers closer to right, siding with them on Stirling.
“I think the odds makers are the one that are a little closer here, and I do favor with them [Stirling].”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Błachowicz · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Calls the odds wrong, arguing Blachowicz is still at the top of his game and too hard to catch on the chin, and that he out-jabs and out-low-kicks Stirling at range on short notice.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Błachowicz · to win. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Agonised over picking against Stirling, one of his favourite prospects, but decided the short-notice step up is too much too soon and backed the former champion's veteran savvy as a big underdog.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Błachowicz · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Argues Blachowicz has not actually declined — competitive against Ulberg, Guskov and Pereira — and that Stirling lacks Ulberg's one-shot power, especially on short notice.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Błachowicz · Decision. Actual Stirling · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Says Blachowicz has had close fights with every monster at 205 and still has it at 43, while Stirling's record flatters him. Calls the step up on short notice too much too soon.
“I'm going to go with Jan Błachowicz by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 29-11-2
- Record
- 10-0-0
- 1-2-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 3.14
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 13:16
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Poland
- Nationality
- New Zealand
- Ankos MMA - Zapaśniczy 67, Warszawa
- Team
- City Kickboxing · Auckland
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Błachowicz
Błachowicz has seen every situation this division offers, and his power carries late — he still lands at 3.55 strikes a minute with 52% striking defence. Stirling took this on less than three weeks' notice, and a former champion who fights at range is the worst possible short-notice assignment.
Case for Stirling
Stirling is undefeated at 10-0 with six knockouts and lands 6.24 significant strikes a minute — nearly double Błachowicz's output. He came back from genuine adversity against Ion Cutelaba in June, and at 28 against a 43-year-old whose last win came in May 2022, the physical gap is real.
What We Were Watching For
- Round one output — Stirling's 6.24 strikes per minute against a veteran who tends to start slowly.
- Whether Błachowicz can drag it into the third round — six of Stirling's ten wins ended inside the distance.
- Short-notice conditioning — Stirling accepted this bout on under three weeks' notice.
- Whether Błachowicz looks to grapple — nine of his wins are submissions and he averages 0.36 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, against a 10-0 opponent who has never recorded a submission win, and no attempt in UFC-tracked competition.
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