Bedtime MMA — UFC Freedom 250 predictions

He flips from expecting Garcia to get outclassed: after watching tape he thinks Garcia — a long, lanky southpaw with nasty boxing and reach — out-strikes Lopes. The length helps Garcia see takedowns coming and pile up body and straight shots while Lopes hunts one big shot.

• Reach and length let Garcia counter and read the takedowns
• Garcia's chin means he won't be KO'd
• Self-flags it as a crazy pick / upset

“Steve Garcia is going to pull this one off by decision.”

He admits he wanted to pick Daukaus — better jiu-jitsu, a real sweep and submission path — but thinks Daukaus lacks the athleticism to pressure Nickal the way Rakhmonov did. He expects an early blast double, the takedown threat established, then a level-change overhand for a round-two TKO.

• Concedes Daukaus has the better jiu-jitsu and a submission path
• Notes Nickal's striking defence is poor and he's been rocked before
• Expects an early takedown to set up the overhand

“I'm going to go with Bo Nickal by round two KO.”

He calls Chandler washed and expects Ruffy to systematically break him down. Chandler may find early success with kicks and pressure, but as he loses composure and abandons the game plan, Ruffy counters with uppercuts, knees and straight rights and finishes with ground-and-pound in the third.

• Chandler does okay early before fading
• Ruffy's grappling is underrated — can reverse and land elbows
• Expects a dominant third round and a TKO

“I'm going to say Mauricio Rufi by round three TKO.”

He dismisses Lewis as a flat-footed puncher who flops around at range, and sees Hokit as the better athlete in cardio, striking, grappling, heart and fight IQ. He expects Hokit to melt Lewis on the fence or take him down for a first-round TKO; Lewis's only path is a fluke overhand.

• Lists Hokit ahead in cardio, striking, grappling, heart and IQ
• Lewis's only win is a fluke overhand KO
• Calls it the easiest fight on the card to break down

“I'm picking Josh by round one TKO.”

He thinks O'Malley styles on Zahabi with oblique kicks, body front-kicks, jab and straight punches against Zahabi's pressure-boxing. He credits Zahabi's kicks and toughness and a viable takedown threat, but expects O'Malley to defend, threaten guillotines and win clearly.

• Predicts a dominant 30-27, maybe 30-26 decision
• Expects O'Malley to drop Zahabi but not finish
• A Zahabi split-decision upset would be 'comedy gold'

“I'm going to say Sean O'Malley masterclass decision 30-27.”

He calls it the trickiest fight on the card and admits Gane has the size, reach and skill to win, but says Gane has the lowest fight IQ he's seen and will sabotage himself. He expects Pereira more comfortable in the pocket and a close decision, maybe via a Gane mistake.

• Explicitly doesn't see Gane KO'd or badly outstruck — expects it close
• Picks Pereira on fight IQ, not a physical edge
• Predicts a clutch grappling moment decides it

“I'm going to go with Alex Pereira by decision.”

He expects Gaethje to fight patient and movement-heavy like the second Poirier fight (calf kicks, lateral movement, clinch ties to extend it), but believes Topuria is too hard to hit cleanly. Topuria may look bad early reading Gaethje, then in round two make a read and land something brutal.

• Expects Gaethje patient and movement-heavy, trying to extend via the clinch
• Topuria's calf kicks a big factor against a boxing-first Gaethje
• May give Gaethje the first round before the finish

“He will find something brutal and KO Justin Gaethje in the second round, badly.”