UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry  15 Aug 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US

Jeremiah Wells defeats Myktybek Orolbai by Submission

Win Jeremiah Wells 14-4-1
Loss Myktybek Orolbai 16-3-1
Submission · guillotine choke

Round 3 · 1:24

Wells vs Orolbai · UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Wells lost the first two rounds and needed something decisive rather than a points recovery going into the third.

He found it early in that round: a haymaker rocked Orolbai and forced him to reach for the clinch. Wells immediately latched onto a power guillotine and ended the contest at 1:24. The finish earned one of the night’s $100,000 performance bonuses.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Wells

Wells's route is to make the fight physical early, use striking to create a reaction and capitalize before Orolbai settles into his grappling rhythm.

Case for Orolbai

Orolbai's route is to threaten Wells from either phase, especially if he can turn a striking exchange into a body lock or a scramble.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Wells can keep Orolbai from changing the phase of the fight on his terms.
  • Orolbai's first response to Wells's pressure and pocket work.
  • The quality of the transitions after the first defended takedown.
  • Which fighter adapts best when the first finish does not appear.
Records & career stats
Wells vs Orolbai
13-4-1
Record
16-2-1
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
Kyrgyzstan
39
Age
28
1.75 m
Height — Orolbai leads
1.78 m
188 cm
Reach
188 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
69%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
5
Wins by submissionSub wins
—
2.21
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Wells leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
0.41
1.43
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Wells leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.7
44%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Wells leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
29%
45%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
10:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
04:50
Marquez MMA
Team
Team Alpha Male

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 1:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Dec

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Expects Orolbai's pressure and takedowns to wear Wells down for a decision.

“I'm going to go with Mike Trizano Oralbay.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 24:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Calls Orolbai the definite pick for his wrestling, control and faster striking against Wells's grappling exposure.

“Orai definitely the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 6:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Favors Orolbai's wrestling against Wells's forward pressure and expects him to get his hand raised after a distance fight.

“It's going to be Mechtobec Oral by getting his hand raised.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 3:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Picks Orolbai by second-round rear-naked choke after expecting him to control Wells.

“I'll go with Mokaev Oralbay, second round rear-naked choke.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 3:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Favors Orolbai's dominant matchup position over Wells.

“I'm going to go with Mike Dbecker getting this one done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 4:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Selects Orolbai in the full-card prediction segment.

“I'm going to go Orby for the win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 7:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Expects Orolbai to hurt Wells, use takedowns and dominant position, then find a submission.

“We're going Micktobeck, Orli. I think he destroys Jeremiah Wells.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 3:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Expects Orolbai's strength and grappling to wear Wells down before a late submission; flags Wells's takedown defense and cardio.

“We'll go My Titty Back Oral Boy to win this fight by third round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Leftlane MMA
Hear it — 0:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Picks Mike Orolbai by submission; the caption renders Orolbai as Oral Bay.

“controls that motion everywhere. He's going to sub Jeremiah Wells.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
  • Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (18 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 45:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Picks Orolbai to put Wells through the grinder, without committing to a method.

“I just think Oral comes out here and puts Jeremiah Wells through the grinder.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Bookie Beatdown
Hear it — 92:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Both hosts ultimately endorse Orolbai by submission; the shared method is confirmed in the closing slate.

“Give me a strongman sub this week on Oro by.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
View full track record (36 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Dec

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Myktybek Orolbai by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Alexander K. Lee
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Myktybek Orolbai.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (23 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; AJ Devito Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Leftlane MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Bookie Beatdown Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Alexander K. Lee Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 1:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Dec

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Expects Orolbai's pressure and takedowns to wear Wells down for a decision.

“I'm going to go with Mike Trizano Oralbay.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · DecWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 24:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Calls Orolbai the definite pick for his wrestling, control and faster striking against Wells's grappling exposure.

“Orai definitely the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to winWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 6:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Favors Orolbai's wrestling against Wells's forward pressure and expects him to get his hand raised after a distance fight.

“It's going to be Mechtobec Oral by getting his hand raised.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to winWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 3:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Picks Orolbai by second-round rear-naked choke after expecting him to control Wells.

“I'll go with Mokaev Oralbay, second round rear-naked choke.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub · R2Wells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 3:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Favors Orolbai's dominant matchup position over Wells.

“I'm going to go with Mike Dbecker getting this one done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to winWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 4:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Selects Orolbai in the full-card prediction segment.

“I'm going to go Orby for the win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to winWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 7:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Expects Orolbai to hurt Wells, use takedowns and dominant position, then find a submission.

“We're going Micktobeck, Orli. I think he destroys Jeremiah Wells.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · SubWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 3:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Expects Orolbai's strength and grappling to wear Wells down before a late submission; flags Wells's takedown defense and cardio.

“We'll go My Titty Back Oral Boy to win this fight by third round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub · R3Wells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Leftlane MMA18 resolved calls
Leftlane MMA
Hear it — 0:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Picks Mike Orolbai by submission; the caption renders Orolbai as Oral Bay.

“controls that motion everywhere. He's going to sub Jeremiah Wells.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
  • Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (18 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · SubWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 45:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Picks Orolbai to put Wells through the grinder, without committing to a method.

“I just think Oral comes out here and puts Jeremiah Wells through the grinder.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to winWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Bookie Beatdown36 resolved calls
Bookie Beatdown
Hear it — 92:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Sub

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Both hosts ultimately endorse Orolbai by submission; the shared method is confirmed in the closing slate.

“Give me a strongman sub this week on Oro by.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
View full track record (36 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · SubWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Dec

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Myktybek Orolbai by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · DecWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Alexander K. Lee23 resolved calls
Alexander K. Lee
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Myktybek Orolbai

Fight result: Jeremiah Wells · Submission

MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Myktybek Orolbai.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (23 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to winWells · Sub R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 0 of 13 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.