UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang  3 Oct 2026 · the Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, US

Payton Talbott defeats Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO

Loss Deiveson Figueiredo 25-8-1
Win Payton Talbott 12-1-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 1 · 2:09

Figueiredo vs Talbott — Bantamweight · UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Talbott put Figueiredo on the canvas with a right hand early in the round.

An elbow along the fence then started his push for the finish, and Figueiredo was unable to recover once it landed.

Talbott stayed on him with hard shots until Figueiredo covered up and referee Jason Herzog stepped in.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Figueiredo

Figueiredo arrives on a two-fight skid — a decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov and a second-round guillotine submission to Song Yadong. His 25-7-1 record and even split across knockout, submission and decision wins reflect a finisher who has never needed one path to win.

Case for Talbott

Talbott is unbeaten in his last two starts, including a unanimous decision over Henry Cejudo, and moves at a noticeably faster pace than the bantamweight norm. This is his first veteran test since that Cejudo win, against an opponent with far more championship-rounds experience.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Figueiredo's recent vulnerability to grappling exchanges — the Song guillotine — is a pattern Talbott's speed can exploit early.
  • Talbott's ability to close distance against a veteran counter-striker without eating a clean shot.
  • Figueiredo's durability and finishing instincts across three rounds after two decision-heavy losses.
  • Whether Talbott's pace advantage or Figueiredo's experience decides close exchanges late in the fight.
Records & career stats
Figueiredo vs Talbott
25-7-1
Record
11-1-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Brazil
Nationality
United States
38
Age
28
1.65 m
Height — Talbott leads
1.78 m
173 cm
Reach — Talbott leads
179 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
72%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
9
Wins by submissionSub wins — Figueiredo leads
1
2.57
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Talbott leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.62
3.5
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.38
49%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Figueiredo leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
57%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Talbott leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
78%
12:15
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:51
Team Figueiredo
Team
Reno Academy of Combat

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Fighter interview▶ SEAN O'MALLEY YOU'RE NEXT! | Payton Talbott Octagon Interview | UFC 332 Press conference▶ Payton Talbott Post-Fight Press Conference | UFC 332
Before the fight (1)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Guy Bruhn
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Deiveson Figueiredo

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bruhn selects Deiveson Figueiredo in a winner-only call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (12 calls)
Vinny
Hear it — 80:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Figueiredo to test Talbott’s resolve in the later rounds and win a decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
  • Method Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Hank
Hear it — 78:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s speed, power and counter-wrestling against an older Figueiredo.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 91.7% 11 1
  • Method Accuracy 90.9% 10 1
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 33:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 1.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 33:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 42:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bedtime expects Talbott’s volume, body work, knees and elbows to wear Figueiredo down. He allows for early takedown success from Figueiredo but expects Talbott’s physicality and grappling to produce a third-round submission.

  • Also allows for a clear Talbott decision as an alternative.
“going to pick Pton Talbot. I'm going to say Payton Talba by round three submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 28:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

He sees Talbott as much larger for the division, technically strong, increasingly capable of wrestling, and able to take a shot; he warns that Figueiredo's power still must be respected. He predicts cumulative damage leading to a third-round knockout, naming Talbott's right straight and a head kick as possible finish routes.

  • He names a right straight and a head kick as possible finishing shots.
“I do see him getting knocked out for the first time in his career.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 31:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Chiesa favors Talbott's short punches, framing jab and combinations that change angles and stances. He thinks Figueiredo needs to mix wrestling with striking and fight at a higher pace, but does not expect him to sustain the pace required to beat Talbott.

“I am going with Payton Talbot”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Angelo Bodetti
Hear it — 38:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bodetti favors Talbott’s size, speed, power and movement, with improving wrestling supporting the pick. He acknowledges Talbott’s earlier takedown-defense concerns but does not expect Figueiredo to control him on the ground.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 24 12
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
View full track record (36 calls)
Matt
Hear it — 104:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott to overwhelm the declining Figueiredo and stop him late in round two.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (21 calls)
Fite Feed
Hear it — 31:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott to finish a declining Figueiredo and sees this as a matchup favoring the younger contender.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
  • Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 10:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

MMA JOEY selects Payton Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 51:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott to finish Figueiredo around the second round, discussing either a TKO or submission without choosing one method. Expects his reach, body work and sustained pursuit to create openings, while questioning whether he can stay composed when Figueiredo slows the fight.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 2:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Jake favors Payton Talbott over Deiveson Figueiredo but leaves open a decision or a knockout.

“Payton Talbott's going to beat the brakes off of Deiveson Figueiredo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 2:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Payton Talbott by third-round TKO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
View full track record (39 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 4:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Kunath selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Brent Brookhouse
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Brent Brookhouse picks Payton Talbott to win by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.2% 24 14
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (38 calls)
James Lynch
Hear it — 23:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Lynch picks Talbott by decision and says he wants to see more from him.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)
Clenbat
Hear it — 34:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Clenbat selects Payton Talbott in a winner-only call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.1% 22 14
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (36 calls)
MMA Mathletes
Hear it — 40:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

MMA Mathletes selects Payton Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 20 13
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (33 calls)
Artem MMA
Hear it — 41:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott’s improved takedown defense, physical size and high-volume knees and kicks to overwhelm a Figueiredo he sees as declining on the feet.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
The Octagon Oracle
Hear it — 65:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s power and variety of finishing attacks against the older Figueiredo.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
  • Method Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Brian Campbell
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Brian Campbell picks Payton Talbott to win by third-round TKO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.9% 22 16
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 7.7% 1 12
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (38 calls)
Michael Bisping
Hear it — 9:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bisping expects Talbott to stop Figueiredo, emphasizing Talbott's skills and improvement after the Barcelos loss. He considers Figueiredo's age and accumulated high-level fights a factor in the matchup.

  • Predicts a stoppage without choosing knockout or submission.
“I think he gets a stoppage against Deiveson Figueiredo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.6% 19 14
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (33 calls)
BeewolfMMA
Hear it — 34:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Sees Talbott as a difficult striking and grappling matchup for Figueiredo, whose recent performances he considers below the level of the division’s best. Expects a one-sided fight ending with a first-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 7
  • Round Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (23 calls)
mmadbm
Hear it — 24:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Picks Talbott by knockout because he sees a much bigger, more explosive and durable striker facing an aging Figueiredo. He doubts Figueiredo’s wrestling and physicality at bantamweight and expects Talbott to expose signs of declining durability.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 8
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (23 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Says Figueiredo cannot sustain the pace, which narrows his upset path against Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 44:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight Productions selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 2.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
Walk The Line MMA
Hear it — 58:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Walk The Line MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 2.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.5% 18 15
  • Method Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (33 calls)
The Finz Chats
Hear it — 19:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

The Finz Chats selects Payton Talbott by submission.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
  • Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (22 calls)
Shakiel Mahjouri
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Shakiel Mahjouri picks Payton Talbott to win by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 21 19
  • Method Accuracy 56.3% 9 7
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (40 calls)
D.Rose
Hear it — 106:28

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s size and improved grappling after the Lima and Cejudo fights, taking a shot on a submission without naming a round.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.4% 11 10
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (21 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Schweppe picks Payton Talbott to win by second-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 69:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA selects Payton Talbott in a winner-only call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Brandon Wise
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Brandon Wise picks Payton Talbott to win by first-round KO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 19 19
  • Method Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
  • Round Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
  • Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
View full track record (38 calls)
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 41:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

The MMA Yuda selects Payton Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Gerardo Rivas
Hear it — 9:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott’s physical advantages to force a worn-down Figueiredo toward grappling, where he sees a finish coming.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (15 calls)
Timothy Wheaton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Timothy Wheaton picks Payton Talbott to win by decision, citing Talbott's momentum, age advantage, and range game.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (9 calls)
Chris Cross
Hear it — 2:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Chris Cross leans toward Payton Talbott to squeeze out a close decision victory, possibly by split decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Carlos Cano
Hear it — 8:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s size, reach and improved takedown defense to control Figueiredo over three rounds.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (10 calls)

Analyst picks: Hank Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; Angelo Bodetti Hit; Matt Hit; Fite Feed Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Hit; Brent Brookhouse Hit; James Lynch Hit; Clenbat Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Guy Bruhn Miss; The Octagon Oracle Hit; Brian Campbell Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; BeewolfMMA Hit; mmadbm Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Walk The Line MMA Hit; The Finz Chats Hit; Shakiel Mahjouri Hit; D.Rose Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Brandon Wise Hit; Vinny Miss; The MMA Yuda Hit; Gerardo Rivas Hit; Timothy Wheaton Hit; Chris Cross Hit; Carlos Cano Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Hank12 resolved calls
Hank
Hear it — 78:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s speed, power and counter-wrestling against an older Figueiredo.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 91.7% 11 1
  • Method Accuracy 90.9% 10 1
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R1Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
Jimbo Ortega MMA29 resolved calls
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 33:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 1.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R1Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 33:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKOTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 42:00

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bedtime expects Talbott’s volume, body work, knees and elbows to wear Figueiredo down. He allows for early takedown success from Figueiredo but expects Talbott’s physicality and grappling to produce a third-round submission.

  • Also allows for a clear Talbott decision as an alternative.
“going to pick Pton Talbot. I'm going to say Payton Talba by round three submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Talbott · Sub · R3Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissMiss
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 28:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

He sees Talbott as much larger for the division, technically strong, increasingly capable of wrestling, and able to take a shot; he warns that Figueiredo's power still must be respected. He predicts cumulative damage leading to a third-round knockout, naming Talbott's right straight and a head kick as possible finish routes.

  • He names a right straight and a head kick as possible finishing shots.
“I do see him getting knocked out for the first time in his career.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R3Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 31:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Chiesa favors Talbott's short punches, framing jab and combinations that change angles and stances. He thinks Figueiredo needs to mix wrestling with striking and fight at a higher pace, but does not expect him to sustain the pace required to beat Talbott.

“I am going with Payton Talbot”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Angelo Bodetti36 resolved calls
Angelo Bodetti
Hear it — 38:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bodetti favors Talbott’s size, speed, power and movement, with improving wrestling supporting the pick. He acknowledges Talbott’s earlier takedown-defense concerns but does not expect Figueiredo to control him on the ground.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 24 12
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
View full track record (36 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Matt21 resolved calls
Matt
Hear it — 104:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott to overwhelm the declining Figueiredo and stop him late in round two.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (21 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R2Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Fite Feed12 resolved calls
Fite Feed
Hear it — 31:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott to finish a declining Figueiredo and sees this as a matchup favoring the younger contender.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
  • Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R2Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 10:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

MMA JOEY selects Payton Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 51:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott to finish Figueiredo around the second round, discussing either a TKO or submission without choosing one method. Expects his reach, body work and sustained pursuit to create openings, while questioning whether he can stay composed when Figueiredo slows the fight.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledMiss
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 2:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Jake favors Payton Talbott over Deiveson Figueiredo but leaves open a decision or a knockout.

“Payton Talbott's going to beat the brakes off of Deiveson Figueiredo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
KingofCrackdown509539 resolved calls
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 2:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Payton Talbott by third-round TKO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
View full track record (39 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R3Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath
Hear it — 4:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Kunath selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKOTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Brent Brookhouse38 resolved calls
Brent Brookhouse
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Brent Brookhouse picks Payton Talbott to win by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.2% 24 14
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (38 calls)
Talbott · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
James Lynch44 resolved calls
James Lynch
Hear it — 23:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Lynch picks Talbott by decision and says he wants to see more from him.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)
Talbott · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Clenbat36 resolved calls
Clenbat
Hear it — 34:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Clenbat selects Payton Talbott in a winner-only call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.1% 22 14
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (36 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
MMA Mathletes33 resolved calls
MMA Mathletes
Hear it — 40:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

MMA Mathletes selects Payton Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 20 13
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (33 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Artem MMA71 resolved calls
Artem MMA
Hear it — 41:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott’s improved takedown defense, physical size and high-volume knees and kicks to overwhelm a Figueiredo he sees as declining on the feet.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKOTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Guy Bruhn12 resolved calls
Guy Bruhn
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Deiveson Figueiredo

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bruhn selects Deiveson Figueiredo in a winner-only call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (12 calls)
Figueiredo · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The Octagon Oracle12 resolved calls
The Octagon Oracle
Hear it — 65:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s power and variety of finishing attacks against the older Figueiredo.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
  • Method Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKOTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Brian Campbell38 resolved calls
Brian Campbell
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Brian Campbell picks Payton Talbott to win by third-round TKO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.9% 22 16
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 7.7% 1 12
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (38 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R3Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Michael Bisping33 resolved calls
Michael Bisping
Hear it — 9:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Bisping expects Talbott to stop Figueiredo, emphasizing Talbott's skills and improvement after the Barcelos loss. He considers Figueiredo's age and accumulated high-level fights a factor in the matchup.

  • Predicts a stoppage without choosing knockout or submission.
“I think he gets a stoppage against Deiveson Figueiredo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.6% 19 14
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (33 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
BeewolfMMA23 resolved calls
BeewolfMMA
Hear it — 34:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Sees Talbott as a difficult striking and grappling matchup for Figueiredo, whose recent performances he considers below the level of the division’s best. Expects a one-sided fight ending with a first-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 7
  • Round Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (23 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R1Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
mmadbm23 resolved calls
mmadbm
Hear it — 24:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Picks Talbott by knockout because he sees a much bigger, more explosive and durable striker facing an aging Figueiredo. He doubts Figueiredo’s wrestling and physicality at bantamweight and expects Talbott to expose signs of declining durability.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 8
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (23 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKOTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Jon Litterine97 resolved calls
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Says Figueiredo cannot sustain the pace, which narrows his upset path against Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Fight Productions42 resolved calls
Fight Productions
Hear it — 44:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Fight Productions selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 2.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R2Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Walk The Line MMA33 resolved calls
Walk The Line MMA
Hear it — 58:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Walk The Line MMA selects Payton Talbott by ko/tko in round 2.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.5% 18 15
  • Method Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (33 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R2Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
The Finz Chats22 resolved calls
The Finz Chats
Hear it — 19:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

The Finz Chats selects Payton Talbott by submission.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
  • Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (22 calls)
Talbott · SubTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Shakiel Mahjouri40 resolved calls
Shakiel Mahjouri
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Shakiel Mahjouri picks Payton Talbott to win by unanimous decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 21 19
  • Method Accuracy 56.3% 9 7
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (40 calls)
Talbott · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
D.Rose21 resolved calls
D.Rose
Hear it — 106:28

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Sub

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s size and improved grappling after the Lima and Cejudo fights, taking a shot on a submission without naming a round.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.4% 11 10
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (21 calls)
Talbott · SubTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Schweppe picks Payton Talbott to win by second-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R2Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 69:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA selects Payton Talbott in a winner-only call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Brandon Wise38 resolved calls
Brandon Wise
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Brandon Wise picks Payton Talbott to win by first-round KO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 19 19
  • Method Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
  • Round Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
  • Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
View full track record (38 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R1Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
Vinny12 resolved calls
Vinny
Hear it — 80:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Figueiredo to test Talbott’s resolve in the later rounds and win a decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
  • Method Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (12 calls)
Figueiredo · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Yuda45 resolved calls
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 41:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

The MMA Yuda selects Payton Talbott.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Talbott · to winTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Gerardo Rivas15 resolved calls
Gerardo Rivas
Hear it — 9:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Expects Talbott’s physical advantages to force a worn-down Figueiredo toward grappling, where he sees a finish coming.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (15 calls)
Talbott · KO/TKO · R2Talbott · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
Timothy Wheaton9 resolved calls
Timothy Wheaton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Timothy Wheaton picks Payton Talbott to win by decision, citing Talbott's momentum, age advantage, and range game.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (9 calls)
Talbott · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Chris Cross20 resolved calls
Chris Cross
Hear it — 2:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Chris Cross leans toward Payton Talbott to squeeze out a close decision victory, possibly by split decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Talbott · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Carlos Cano10 resolved calls
Carlos Cano
Hear it — 8:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Payton Talbott · Dec

Fight result: Payton Talbott · KO/TKO

Favors Talbott’s size, reach and improved takedown defense to control Figueiredo over three rounds.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (10 calls)
Talbott · DecTalbott · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called

38 of 40 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Talbott · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Gemini put 81% on Talbott.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
24% Figueiredo
76% Talbott
PickTalbott · DecisionActualTalbott · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
22% Figueiredo
78% Talbott
PickTalbott · DecisionActualTalbott · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
19% Figueiredo
81% Talbott
PickTalbott · DecisionActualTalbott · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 29 Sep, 4 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Talbott

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 76% (ChatGPT) to 81% (Gemini).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 43% (Claude) to 52% (Gemini), a 9-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Talbott by decision

    Win probability: Figueiredo 24%, Talbott 76%.

    gpt-6-astra · 27 Sep

    High confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Talbott by decision

    Win probability: Figueiredo 22%, Talbott 78%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 27 Sep

    High confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Talbott by decision

    Win probability: Figueiredo 19%, Talbott 81%.

    Version not reported · 29 Sep

    High confidence
More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Talbott by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Figueiredo 24%, Talbott 76%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 38% overall: Figueiredo 6%, Talbott 32%
Submission, 12% overall: Figueiredo 8%, Talbott 4%
Decision, 50% overall: Figueiredo 10%, Talbott 40%

gpt-6-astra · 27 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Talbott by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Figueiredo 22%, Talbott 78%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 44% overall: Figueiredo 14%, Talbott 30%
Submission, 13% overall: Figueiredo 3%, Talbott 10%
Decision, 43% overall: Figueiredo 5%, Talbott 38%

claude-sonnet-5 · 27 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Talbott by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Figueiredo 19%, Talbott 81%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 38% overall: Figueiredo 5%, Talbott 33%
Submission, 10% overall: Figueiredo 6%, Talbott 4%
Decision, 52% overall: Figueiredo 8%, Talbott 44%

Version not reported · 29 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.