UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Magomed Ankalaev defeats Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO

Win Magomed Ankalaev 21-2-1
Loss Bogdan Guskov 18-4-1
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 5 · 2:41

Ankalaev vs Guskov — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Ankalaev used rangy attacks and dealt with Guskov's return fire through the first three rounds.

He opened up further as the fight reached the championship rounds.

The fifth-round pressure produced the TKO finish at 2:41.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Ankalaev

Ankalaev wins by leaning on the wrestling and championship pace that made him champion. He out-pointed Alex Pereira over five rounds to take the title before the October rematch went wrong early, and his game — ten knockout wins stacked on top of a real wrestling threat and a grinding pace, with half his wins coming by decision — is built to drag Guskov into deep water he has never seen. Guskov has finished every one of his eighteen wins but has never been past the third round; five championship rounds against a grinder is a different exam.

Case for Guskov

Guskov wins if he lands before the fight hits the mat. 'Hitman' is 4-0-1 in his last five with a perfect finish rate — a first-round knockout of Nikita Krylov, a guillotine of Billy Elekana, and a majority draw with former champion Jan Blachowicz — and he stepped up for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr. with nothing to lose. Ankalaev was stopped by Pereira inside two minutes last time out; if Guskov's power finds that same opening early, the wrestling never matters.

What We Were Watching For

  • Round one: Ankalaev was finished by Pereira in 80 seconds in his last fight — does he come out cautious, and does Guskov attack that opening?
  • Takedowns vs sprawl: Guskov's takedown defense is untested at this level — can Ankalaev put him on his back and keep him there?
  • The championship rounds: Guskov has never fought past 15 minutes, so if it's level after three, experience and cardio decide rounds four and five.
  • Short notice: Guskov moved up a week from his own booking to save the main event — does the compressed camp show over five rounds?
Records & career stats
Ankalaev vs Guskov
20-2-1
Record
18-3-1
3-1-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-0-1 last 5
Russia
Nationality
Uzbekistan
34
Age
33
1.91 m
Height
1.91 m
191 cm
Reach — Guskov leads
193 cm
Southpaw
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
100%
—
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
15
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Guskov leads
3
3.52
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Guskov leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.87
2.49
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Ankalaev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.40
55%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Ankalaev leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
88%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Ankalaev leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
12:27
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Fight Club Akhmat / Xtreme Couture
Team
Gor MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 31:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“throne. All right, we're picking Maravan Ankal live. I'm going to go with Ank by”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 63:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision.

“I'm going to go Ankalaev by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 40:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge.

“this fight to the mat, he can and he will. So for Uncle, I'm taking him by”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 33:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

MMA JOEY picks Magomed Ankalaev by second-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 19:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Picks Magomed Ankalaev winner-only because earlier method and round language conflicts with the later unambiguous winner call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 78:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Boom. Left hand down the pipe. Maybe even a head kick behind it. Puts Guskov”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 38:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“So, Ankolive is going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 26:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“disrespect him and pick Guskov to beat him. So, I'm going to go with Ankalaev”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 74:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Picks Magomed Ankalaev by second-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi preview has Jesse Holland picking Magomed Ankalaev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Jesse Holland Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 31:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“throne. All right, we're picking Maravan Ankal live. I'm going to go with Ank by”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to winAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitNot calledNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 63:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Expects Ankalaev's technical edge and five-round experience to manage Guskov's early danger and win a decision.

“I'm going to go Ankalaev by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · DecAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitMissNot called
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 40:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge.

“this fight to the mat, he can and he will. So for Uncle, I'm taking him by”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to winAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitNot calledNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 33:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

MMA JOEY picks Magomed Ankalaev by second-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · KO/TKO · R2Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5HitHitMiss
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 19:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Picks Magomed Ankalaev winner-only because earlier method and round language conflicts with the later unambiguous winner call.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to winAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 78:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Boom. Left hand down the pipe. Maybe even a head kick behind it. Puts Guskov”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to winAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitNot calledNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 38:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“So, Ankolive is going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to winAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 26:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview.

“disrespect him and pick Guskov to beat him. So, I'm going to go with Ankalaev”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to winAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitNot calledNot called
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 74:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

Picks Magomed Ankalaev by second-round knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · KO/TKO · R2Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5HitHitMiss
Jesse Holland55 resolved calls
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Ankalaev · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi preview has Jesse Holland picking Magomed Ankalaev by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · DecAnkalaev · KO/TKO R5HitMissNot called

10 of 10 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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