Felipe Franco defeats Levi Rodrigues Jr. by KO/TKO
Rodrigues Jr. vs Franco — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Franco absorbed Rodrigues's opening pressure before finding his range on the feet.
Striking entries set up takedowns and sustained positional control in round one.
A right hand backed Rodrigues up in the second; Franco clinched, took mount, and finished with ground-and-pound at 1:40.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City preliminary results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: Ben Duffy perfect call; AJ called it; James Lynch called it; Adam Martin missed; Marcel Dorff missed; Keith Shillan missed; Mike Finch missed; Half The Battle missed; DFS By The Numbers missed; JakeGerberMMA missed.
Only 3 of 10 called the upset · 1 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Ben Duffy Analyst called 13 of 16 Ben Duffy: predicted Franco · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Perfect call.
Sees upset potential in Franco's quicker hands and comparable power, with the defensive flaws on both sides leading him to a knockout pick.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Franco · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Takes underdog Franco, favoring his grappling and the prospect of taking Rodrigues down and controlling the fight.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 17 of 24 James Lynch: predicted Franco · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Hit.
Takes the underdog Franco on experience and expects a second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 24 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Adam Martin AnalystBetting desk called 14 of 17 Adam Martin: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues to win by knockout, while noting the uncertainty after his suspension.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 17 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Marcel Dorff Analyst called 13 of 16 Marcel Dorff: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues by second-round TKO, while flagging the drop to light heavyweight as a variable.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 11 of 15 Keith Shillan: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · Decision. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues' better striking in a low-confidence decision call.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 15 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 23 of 36 Mike Finch: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues by knockout, seeing his speed and danger as the better side in a volatile matchup.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 36 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Picks Rodrigues to knock out Franco, while noting the unanswered questions if the matchup stays on the mat.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Takes Rodrigues based on the more convincing striking, power and cardio from the regional tape.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Rodrigues Jr. · to win. Actual Franco · KO/TKO R2. Result: Miss.
Takes Rodrigues' power and pressure over Franco's inconsistent, hesitant form.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- —
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.81
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2.55
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 38%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 88%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 14:54
- Light Heavyweight
- Weight classWeight
- Heavyweight (moving down)
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Inside Muay Thai
- Team
- Galpao da Luta
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rodrigues Jr.
Rodrigues is unbeaten and has never heard the final bell — five wins, all knockouts, all inside the distance. He is the fresher finisher, and against a Franco who has been stopped before, one clean early exchange is usually all his power needs.
Case for Franco
Franco is the more experienced finisher (10-2, every win inside the distance) with the grappling to change levels — six knockouts and four submissions mean he can end it standing or on the mat. He has also seen tougher rooms, and the Freddy Vidal tape cuts both ways: Vidal submitted Franco but only managed a no-contest against Rodrigues.
What We Were Watching For
- Two 100% finishers: this rarely reaches the scorecards — who lands the first clean shot?
- Shared Vidal thread: Franco was submitted by Freddy Vidal; Rodrigues fought him to a no-contest — whose result reads better?
- Franco's debut jitters: he was out-pointed by Mario Pinto in his UFC bow — has he settled, or is the Octagon jump still raw?
- Rodrigues' untested chin: 5-0 but never in deep water — what happens if Franco survives the first wave?
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