UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse  5 Sep 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France, FR

Daniil Donchenko defeats Punahele Soriano by unanimous decision

Win Daniil Donchenko 15-2-0
Loss Punahele Soriano 13-5-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Donchenko vs Soriano · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Donchenko dropped Soriano in round one with a combination and followed with elbows while Soriano hung on to a single leg.

Soriano spent rounds one and two swinging and missing while Donchenko picked at the body and legs.

Soriano's only sustained success came in round three — several takedowns, brief back control and a slam — and it did not change the outcome.

Judges' scorecards
  • Ben Cartlidge30–27
  • David Lethaby30–27
  • Eric Colon29–28
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Donchenko

Donchenko lands 8.07 significant strikes a minute, comfortably the highest rate on this main card, and 62% of what he throws arrives — 210 landed from 337. He adds 2.30 knockdowns per 15 minutes behind a 70% striking defence, and at 24 he is nine years younger than Soriano. His last outing was a second-round stoppage of Theodor Berggren in June.

Case for Soriano

Soriano brings the deeper Octagon sample: 537 significant strikes landed from 1,001 thrown, against Donchenko’s 210, and a 10:08 average that says he is used to still being there in the third. He lands 4.42 a minute and has 31 takedown attempts on his UFC record — a route away from Donchenko’s best work.

What We Were Watching For

  • Output gap: 8.07 significant strikes a minute for Donchenko against 4.42 for Soriano.
  • Soriano defends 47% of significant strikes against the highest-volume striker on this main card.
  • Knockdown average: 2.30 for Donchenko, 0.74 for Soriano.
  • Soriano has attempted 31 takedowns in the UFC against a man who defends 75% of them.
Records & career stats
Donchenko vs Soriano
14-2-0
Record
13-4-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Ukraine
Nationality
United States
24
Age
33
1.80 m
Height
1.80 m
180 cm
Reach — Soriano leads
184 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
69%
—
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
7
2
Wins by submissionSub wins
2
7.14
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Donchenko leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.04
2.14
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Donchenko leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.55
73%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Donchenko leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Donchenko leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
10:16
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:30
Syndicate MMA and Tiger Muay Thai
Team
Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 44:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's varied striking as too dangerous for the more boxing-bound Soriano.

“So, we'll believe in Donchenko to get the job done. And uh I do hope he shows us a bit of the patience, but he's live to knock Sorano out.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 38:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's striking a step ahead but stays open between a decision and a body-shot finish.

“but Donenko striking I think is a step ahead and I think he gets this one done”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 19:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · Dec

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's striking volume and body work higher, and doubts Soriano's cardio if the wrestling does not pay off.

“going to go Donchenko here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 123:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Expects Donchenko to build an early striking lead that makes Soriano's late wrestling look desperate.

“I am going to pick Denil Donchenko because I think the striking is that much better and I think he'll get ahead in the striking.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 16:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Favours Donchenko's pressure and finishing habit over Soriano's underrated but less tested record.

“I'm going to go with Daniel Donenko Biko in the second round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 91:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Cites Donchenko's varied, heavy striking and body work as too much for Soriano.

“Man, I like Denil Donchenko knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Vreeland expects Donchenko to deny Soriano reliable takedowns and have the advantage in a striking fight.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 22:04

Current pick evidence

Picked: Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's style but reads his defence as too loose against Soriano's straight left and wrestling threat.

“I'm picking Punah Soraniano.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 20:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Picks Daniil Donchenko by knockout.

“Give me Dell Don Jenko by Knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Punahele Soriano · Dec

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Paris X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Punahele Soriano by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Andrew Richardson Miss; Mike Finch Hit; Daniel Vreeland Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 22:04

Current pick evidence

Picked: Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's style but reads his defence as too loose against Soriano's straight left and wrestling threat.

“I'm picking Punah Soraniano.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 32.6%. Soriano · KO/TKODonchenko · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 44:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's varied striking as too dangerous for the more boxing-bound Soriano.

“So, we'll believe in Donchenko to get the job done. And uh I do hope he shows us a bit of the patience, but he's live to knock Sorano out.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKODonchenko · Dec R3HitMissNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 38:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's striking a step ahead but stays open between a decision and a body-shot finish.

“but Donenko striking I think is a step ahead and I think he gets this one done”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · to winDonchenko · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
MMA Husky Hustler31 resolved calls
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 20:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Picks Daniil Donchenko by knockout.

“Give me Dell Don Jenko by Knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 32.6%. Soriano · KO/TKODonchenko · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 19:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · Dec

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Rates Donchenko's striking volume and body work higher, and doubts Soriano's cardio if the wrestling does not pay off.

“going to go Donchenko here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · DecDonchenko · Dec R3HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 123:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Expects Donchenko to build an early striking lead that makes Soriano's late wrestling look desperate.

“I am going to pick Denil Donchenko because I think the striking is that much better and I think he'll get ahead in the striking.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · to winDonchenko · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 16:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Favours Donchenko's pressure and finishing habit over Soriano's underrated but less tested record.

“I'm going to go with Daniel Donenko Biko in the second round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKO · R2Donchenko · Dec R3HitMissMiss
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Punahele Soriano · Dec

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Paris X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Punahele Soriano by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 32.6%. Soriano · DecDonchenko · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Mike Finch40 resolved calls
Mike Finch
Hear it — 91:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Cites Donchenko's varied, heavy striking and body work as too much for Soriano.

“Man, I like Denil Donchenko knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKODonchenko · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Daniel Vreeland29 resolved calls
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Daniil Donchenko

Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision

Vreeland expects Donchenko to deny Soriano reliable takedowns and have the advantage in a striking fight.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · to winDonchenko · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called

7 of 10 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 7 sportsbooks

67% Daniil Donchenko
33% Punahele Soriano

Favoured: Donchenko (67%) Called it

Donchenko defeats Soriano · Dec

Final pre-fight line · as of 5 Sep 17:29 UTC · 7 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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