UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse  5 Sep 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France, FR

Losene Keita defeats Muhammad Naimov by KO/TKO

Win Losene Keita 17-2-0
Loss Muhammad Naimov 13-5-0
KO/TKO · punch

Round 1 · 2:54

Keita vs Naimov · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Keita hurt Naimov with a left hook in the opening exchanges and never gave the round back, opening a cut near Naimov's left eye.

A jab dropped Naimov; Keita followed with punches on the floor and let him stand.

Naimov was unconscious on the overhand right before he hit the canvas. No follow-up shots were needed.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Keita

Keita is 16-2, a former simultaneous two-division Oktagon champion, and out-works Naimov on the numbers that exist: 3.47 significant strikes a minute to 2.51, and a 62% striking defence to 45%. Before the UFC called he had won five straight, three of them by stoppage.

Case for Naimov

Naimov has the far deeper Octagon record — 227 significant strikes landed from 558 thrown across an 11:17 average, against Keita’s 52 from 119 — and a route Keita has barely been asked about: 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes from 30 attempts. He also beat Nathaniel Wood on the cards in October 2023, the man who beat Keita in March.

What We Were Watching For

  • Sample size: every UFC rate for Keita rests on a single fight — a split-decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in March 2026 that went the full 15:00, with 52 significant strikes landed.
  • Naimov defends 45% of significant strikes to Keita’s 62%, and absorbs 3.35 a minute.
  • Naimov was stopped by punches 21 seconds into the third round by Mairon Santos in December 2025 — the fighter the UFC has since removed from this card’s Nathaniel Wood bout.
  • Keita’s 100% takedown defence has been tested across one fight. Naimov has attempted 30 takedowns in the UFC.
Records & career stats
Keita vs Naimov
Keita Naimov
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.91 2.48
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 65% 44%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.97 3.44
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 100% 68%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 65% 62%
16-2-0
Record
13-4-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Source pending
Nationality
Tajikistan
28
Age
32
69 in
Height
1.75 m
71.5 in
Reach — Keita leads
178 cm
Source pending
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
65%
Finish rateFinish % — Keita leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
62%
11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Keita leads
6
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Naimov leads
2
3.91
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Keita leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.48
3.97
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Naimov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.44
65%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Keita leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
44%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Keita leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
68%
08:57
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:21
Lamiro Fight Club
Team
ONX Labs

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Post-fight interview

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 21:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Expects Keita's power and counter timing to punish an increasingly aggressive Naimov.

“I'm going to say Loik Kietza wins by round two or three KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 50:44

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Rates Keita's speed and layered striking well above what he calls a generalist in Naimov.

“I'm going with Los Kea.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 45:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Backs Keita's power to find the finish against a more technical but less dangerous Naimov.

“Give me Lucen Kada by round two knockout here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 24:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Picks Losene Keita by knockout without committing to a single round.

“Hit me low san by knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 24:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · Dec

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Expects Keita's forward pressure to exploit a low-volume, back-footed Naimov.

“Keita to win this fight by decision, pressure, land big shots, outwork Naimov, and I'll win this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 145:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Backs Keita's speed and power against striking-defence flaws Naimov already showed.

“So, Lazine Keat is going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Paris X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Losene Keita by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Vreeland expects Keita to keep the fight standing, exploit Naimov’s limitations when takedowns fail, and finish with his power.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Daniel Vreeland Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 21:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Expects Keita's power and counter timing to punish an increasingly aggressive Naimov.

“I'm going to say Loik Kietza wins by round two or three KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKOKeita · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 50:44

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Rates Keita's speed and layered striking well above what he calls a generalist in Naimov.

“I'm going with Los Kea.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKOKeita · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 45:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Backs Keita's power to find the finish against a more technical but less dangerous Naimov.

“Give me Lucen Kada by round two knockout here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKO · R2Keita · KO/TKO R1HitHitMiss
MMA Husky Hustler31 resolved calls
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 24:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Picks Losene Keita by knockout without committing to a single round.

“Hit me low san by knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKOKeita · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 24:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · Dec

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Expects Keita's forward pressure to exploit a low-volume, back-footed Naimov.

“Keita to win this fight by decision, pressure, land big shots, outwork Naimov, and I'll win this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · DecKeita · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 145:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Backs Keita's speed and power against striking-defence flaws Naimov already showed.

“So, Lazine Keat is going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · to winKeita · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Paris X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Losene Keita by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKOKeita · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Daniel Vreeland29 resolved calls
Daniel Vreeland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO

Vreeland expects Keita to keep the fight standing, exploit Naimov’s limitations when takedowns fail, and finish with his power.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKOKeita · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called

8 of 8 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

76% Losene Keita
24% Muhammad Naimov

Favoured: Keita (76%) Called it

Keita defeats Naimov · KO/TKO R1

Final pre-fight line · as of 5 Sep 17:29 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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