UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Andre Lima defeats Namsrai Batbayar by Submission

Loss Namsrai Batbayar 10-2-0
Win Andre Lima 12-1-0
Submission

Round 3 · 3:03

Batbayar vs Lima — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The more experienced and polished Brazilian was the more effective of the two throughout the first two rounds, constantly walking down Batbayar and landing the bigger shots in what was a relatively low output contest on both sides.

Midway through the third, Lima dove on a guillotine choke as the Mongolian dipped his head, quickly transitioning to full mount and securing the tap.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Batbayar

Batbayar has never been to a decision. Eleven professional fights, ten wins — five by knockout and five by submission, an even split almost nobody carries — and a single defeat that also ended early. He has won six straight.

Case for Lima

Lima's record is the opposite kind: five of his twelve fights reached the judges and he averages 13:30. He defends 76% of takedowns and throws 0.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes, so his route is to make Batbayar work through rounds Batbayar has never had to fight.

What We Were Watching For

  • Batbayar has never been to a decision in eleven fights. Lima has been to five in twelve.
  • Lima's 76% takedown defence against an opponent whose wins split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
  • Every win of Batbayar's career ended inside the distance; he is 25 and on a six-fight run.
  • Lima's most recent defeat was to Kevin Borjas in June — and Borjas fights Rei Tsuruya on this same card.
Records & career stats
Batbayar vs Lima
10-1-0
Record
11-1-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Mongolia
Nationality
Brazil
25
Age
27
1.63 m
Height — Lima leads
1.70 m
173 cm
Reach — Batbayar leads
171 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
100%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
5
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — Batbayar leads
2
4.2
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Batbayar leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.89
3.5
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Lima leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.83
44%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Lima leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Batbayar leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
77%
07:13
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:26
Storm Team
Team
Chute Boxe

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 15:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision.

“I'm going to go with Andre Lima by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 13:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by third-round knockout.

“Eventually knock him out in the third round after accumulation of shots throughout the fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 41:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima to outpoint Namsrai Batbayar for a decision win.

“I'll predict him to win by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 16:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima to win a competitive decision.

“I'm going to go with Andre Lemur by decision ... 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 34:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission, expecting his movement, leg kicks and durability to create a later grappling opening.

“Andre Lima by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 7:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission as a live plus-money bet.

“I took a shot on Lima by submission. Lima by submission plus 400.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 11:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks includes Andre Lima in his parlay.

“This is my parlay. It's Andre Lima and Liu Ce. I think he wins this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 8:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision.

“Andre Lima by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 38:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission.

“Give me Andre Lima via submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 21:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision for cleaner, quicker counter work.

“I suspect and I predict Andre Lima comes out here and wins a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 15:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision.

“I'm going to go with Andre Lima by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · DecLima · Sub R3HitMissNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 13:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by third-round knockout.

“Eventually knock him out in the third round after accumulation of shots throughout the fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · KO/TKO · R3Lima · Sub R3HitMissHit
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 41:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima to outpoint Namsrai Batbayar for a decision win.

“I'll predict him to win by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · DecLima · Sub R3HitMissNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 16:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima to win a competitive decision.

“I'm going to go with Andre Lemur by decision ... 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · DecLima · Sub R3HitMissNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 34:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission, expecting his movement, leg kicks and durability to create a later grappling opening.

“Andre Lima by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · SubLima · Sub R3HitHitNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 7:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission as a live plus-money bet.

“I took a shot on Lima by submission. Lima by submission plus 400.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · SubLima · Sub R3HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 11:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks includes Andre Lima in his parlay.

“This is my parlay. It's Andre Lima and Liu Ce. I think he wins this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · to winLima · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 8:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision.

“Andre Lima by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · DecLima · Sub R3HitMissNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 38:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission.

“Give me Andre Lima via submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · SubLima · Sub R3HitHitNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 21:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision for cleaner, quicker counter work.

“I suspect and I predict Andre Lima comes out here and wins a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · DecLima · Sub R3HitMissNot called

10 of 10 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Lima · Submission · R3

Closest probability Claude put 68% on Lima.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
42% Batbayar
58% Lima
PickLima · DecisionActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
32% Batbayar
68% Lima
PickLima · DecisionActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
50% Batbayar
50% Lima
PickBatbayar · Submission · R2ActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight

2 of 3 models pick Lima

ChatGPT and Claude pick Lima; Gemini calls it even.

Method mix differs most for Decision: 35% (Gemini) to 49% (ChatGPT), a 14-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Lima by decision

    Win probability: Batbayar 42%, Lima 58%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Lima by decision

    Win probability: Batbayar 32%, Lima 68%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Even

    Win probability: Batbayar 50%, Lima 50%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Low confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Andre Lima is the 58% pick, with a blue decision the most likely single outcome at 39%. Namsrai Batbayar retains a 42% overall chance, led by submission at 18% and KO/TKO at 14%.”

What to watch

  • The locked distribution gives Lima a 58% total win probability and Batbayar 42%.
  • Lima by decision is the largest individual outcome at 39%.
  • Batbayar's combined finish probability is 32%, making an early or late stoppage his clearest modeled route.

Swing factor

Whether Batbayar converts his 32% combined finishing chance before the bout reaches the decision outcome favored by the model.

More detail5 areas differ

The models differ on winner, finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Lima by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Batbayar 42%, Lima 58%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 29% overall: Batbayar 14%, Lima 15%
Submission, 22% overall: Batbayar 18%, Lima 4%
Decision, 49% overall: Batbayar 10%, Lima 39%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Andre Lima is the 58% pick, with a blue decision the most likely single outcome at 39%. Namsrai Batbayar retains a 42% overall chance, led by submission at 18% and KO/TKO at 14%.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Lima a 58% total win probability and Batbayar 42%.
  • Lima by decision is the largest individual outcome at 39%.
  • Batbayar's combined finish probability is 32%, making an early or late stoppage his clearest modeled route.

X-factor

Whether Batbayar converts his 32% combined finishing chance before the bout reaches the decision outcome favored by the model.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Lima by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Batbayar 32%, Lima 68%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 28% overall: Batbayar 20%, Lima 8%
Submission, 24% overall: Batbayar 10%, Lima 14%
Decision, 48% overall: Batbayar 2%, Lima 46%

How Claude sees the fight

Andre Lima is the more proven, longer, higher-volume flyweight — 3.94 SLpM, 57% accuracy, 13:30 average fight time, never finished — against Namsrai Batbayar, a debutant whose record is all finishes and who has not been past round two since 2022 (source-7, source-6, source-2). Batbayar's path is fast: hook, drop, back-take, RNC — the sequence Lima's 76% takedown defense and the scramble issues Borjas exposed invite (source-5). If Lima banks the first five minutes, the level-of-competition gap compounds for him. Model's 68% Lima sits near the market's ~71% (source-11), most of it on the cards.

Keys to victory

  • Experience gap: Andre Lima has 5 UFC bouts and 45+ Octagon minutes; Namsrai Batbayar's best wins are Road to UFC level and he has never fought past round two
  • Namsrai Batbayar's finishes are front-loaded — six first-round stoppages, knockdown into back-take RNC — against a man Borjas out-landed and took down
  • Andre Lima's durability and pacing (never finished, 57% accuracy, 59% defense) vs Namsrai Batbayar's 48% striking defense and 3.42 SApM over a long fight

X-factor

Andre Lima's schedule: a 15-month layoff broken in June, now a ~10-week turnaround plus Brazil-to-Shanghai travel — a slow first round is exactly the window Namsrai Batbayar's power needs.

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Even

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Batbayar 50%, Lima 50%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 35% overall: Batbayar 15%, Lima 20%
Submission, 30% overall: Batbayar 25%, Lima 5%
Decision, 35% overall: Batbayar 10%, Lima 25%

How Gemini sees the fight

Batbayar and Lima clash in a classic grappler versus striker flyweight matchup. Batbayar (10-1-0) brings momentum from his Road to UFC win and a 100% finish rate fueled by aggressive grappling. Lima (11-1-0) counters with elite kickboxing, high striking volume, and a BJJ brown belt. This coin-flip bout hinges on Lima's takedown defense. If Lima keeps it standing, his volume can win rounds, but Batbayar's finishing threat remains constantly dangerous. The forecast predicts Namsrai Batbayar to win, favoring his grappling and finish upside.

Keys to victory

  • Batbayar's aggressive wrestling and 100% finish rate
  • Lima's high striking volume and heavy leg kicks
  • Lima's takedown defense determining whether the bout remains on the feet

X-factor

Lima's takedown defense. If he stuffs Batbayar's entries, he dictates the striking exchanges; if not, Batbayar's perfect finishing rate threatens to end the bout on the mat.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.