UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Sumudaerji defeats Alex Perez by unanimous decision

Loss Alex Perez 26-11-0
Win Sumudaerji 20-7-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Perez vs Sumudaerji — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Sumudaerji had the stronger striking at range while Alex Perez found success when he took the fight to the canvas.

In the deciding round, Sumudaerji defended the takedown attempts and scored in the clinch to earn a unanimous decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Perez

They met in May and it was waved off at 1:45 of the second round after an accidental groin kick, with nothing resolved. Perez is the more varied finisher — seven knockouts and seven submissions among twenty-six wins, 2.07 takedowns and 0.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes — and the more volatile: he averages 6:47 a fight.

Case for Sumudaerji

Sumudaerji has won three straight, all of them on the cards, and is the tidier striker on paper: 4.40 significant strikes landed a minute against 2.29 absorbed, behind 63% defence. Thirteen of his nineteen wins are knockouts, but the current version banks rounds, and three banked rounds wins this.

What We Were Watching For

  • A rematch of a no contest — their May meeting ended at 1:45 of round two on an accidental groin kick.
  • Both men lose the same way: six of Perez's ten defeats are submissions, and six of Sumudaerji's seven are.
  • Perez's last defeat was Asu Almabayev's flying guillotine, 22 seconds into the third round.
  • Sumudaerji's last three wins are all decisions. Perez has not won one since March 2019.
Records & career stats
Perez vs Sumudaerji
Perez Sumudaerji
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.79 4.21
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 58% 64%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.18 2.10
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 76% 70%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 54% 70%
26-10-0
Record
19-7-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
China
34
Age
30
1.68 m
Height — Sumudaerji leads
1.73 m
166 cm
Reach — Sumudaerji leads
183 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
54%
Finish rateFinish % — Sumudaerji leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
70%
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Sumudaerji leads
13
7
Wins by submissionSub wins — Perez leads
1
3.79
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Sumudaerji leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.21
3.18
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Sumudaerji leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.10
58%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Sumudaerji leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
64%
76%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Perez leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
70%
07:16
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:05
Team Oyama
Team
Team Alpha Male

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

The MMA Guru
Hear it — 23:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alex Perez

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Alex Perez in the rematch without committing to a method.

“I'm going with Alex Perez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 23:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision.

“I think Sumudaerji wins by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 20:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by third-round knockout.

“So, I'm going to go with Sumidarji by a third round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 55:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji but leaves the method open between a knockout and decision.

“My prediction is Sumudaerji by knockout or decision. It's hard to say.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 48:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision for his speed, footwork, and scrambling against wrestling.

“Sumudaerji by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 9:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision after flipping the selection.

“I'm flipping my pick to Sumudaerji. If Sumudaerji wins, I think it's by decision and that's my pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 10:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks includes Sumudaerji in his parlay.

“I have that parlayed with Sumudaerji.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 16:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision.

“I'm going to go Sumudaerji by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 44:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji while leaving the exact result between decision and knockout unresolved.

“Going to go Sumudaerji, either dominant decision or KO-TKO victory.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Sumudaerji by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 13:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji to stop Alex Perez, citing their prior meeting.

“Sue is going to come out here and knock out Alex Perez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 23:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision.

“I think Sumudaerji wins by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 20:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by third-round knockout.

“So, I'm going to go with Sumidarji by a third round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · KO/TKO · R3Sumudaerji · Dec R3HitMissMiss
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 55:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji but leaves the method open between a knockout and decision.

“My prediction is Sumudaerji by knockout or decision. It's hard to say.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · to winSumudaerji · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 23:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alex Perez

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Alex Perez in the rematch without committing to a method.

“I'm going with Alex Perez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Perez · to winSumudaerji · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 48:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision for his speed, footwork, and scrambling against wrestling.

“Sumudaerji by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · Dec R3HitHitNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 9:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision after flipping the selection.

“I'm flipping my pick to Sumudaerji. If Sumudaerji wins, I think it's by decision and that's my pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · Dec R3HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 10:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks includes Sumudaerji in his parlay.

“I have that parlayed with Sumudaerji.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · to winSumudaerji · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 16:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji by decision.

“I'm going to go Sumudaerji by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 44:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji while leaving the exact result between decision and knockout unresolved.

“Going to go Sumudaerji, either dominant decision or KO-TKO victory.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · to winSumudaerji · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · Dec

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Sumudaerji by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 13:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sumudaerji · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sumudaerji · Decision

Picks Sumudaerji to stop Alex Perez, citing their prior meeting.

“Sue is going to come out here and knock out Alex Perez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · KO/TKOSumudaerji · Dec R3HitMissNot called

10 of 11 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Sumudaerji · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT and Claude put 64% on Sumudaerji.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
36% Perez
64% Sumudaerji
PickSumudaerji · DecisionActualSumudaerji · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
36% Perez
64% Sumudaerji
PickSumudaerji · DecisionActualSumudaerji · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
45% Perez
55% Sumudaerji
PickSumudaerji · KO/TKO · R2ActualSumudaerji · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Sumudaerji

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 55% (Gemini) to 64% (ChatGPT and Claude).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 28% (ChatGPT) to 38% (Claude), a 10-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Sumudaerji by decision

    Win probability: Perez 36%, Sumudaerji 64%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Sumudaerji by decision

    Win probability: Perez 36%, Sumudaerji 64%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Sumudaerji by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Perez 45%, Sumudaerji 55%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Low confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Sumudaerji is the 64% pick, most likely by decision. His reach, striking efficiency and strong early success in the unfinished first meeting favor him at distance, while Perez's wrestling and Sumudaerji's historical submission vulnerability keep the matchup competitive.”

What to watch

  • Sumudaerji led the first meeting 26-9 in significant strikes through 6:45 and scored its only knockdown.
  • Sumudaerji has a 6.5-inch reach advantage and stronger career striking accuracy and defensive metrics.
  • Perez's primary upset route is sustained wrestling and submission pressure against an opponent with six submission losses among seven professional defeats.

Swing factor

Whether Perez can convert early grappling entries into sustained control; he went 0-for-2 on takedowns in the first meeting but remains the more credible submission threat.

More detail4 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Sumudaerji by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Perez 36%, Sumudaerji 64%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 28% overall: Perez 10%, Sumudaerji 18%
Submission, 19% overall: Perez 15%, Sumudaerji 4%
Decision, 53% overall: Perez 11%, Sumudaerji 42%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Sumudaerji is the 64% pick, most likely by decision. His reach, striking efficiency and strong early success in the unfinished first meeting favor him at distance, while Perez's wrestling and Sumudaerji's historical submission vulnerability keep the matchup competitive.

Keys to victory

  • Sumudaerji led the first meeting 26-9 in significant strikes through 6:45 and scored its only knockdown.
  • Sumudaerji has a 6.5-inch reach advantage and stronger career striking accuracy and defensive metrics.
  • Perez's primary upset route is sustained wrestling and submission pressure against an opponent with six submission losses among seven professional defeats.

X-factor

Whether Perez can convert early grappling entries into sustained control; he went 0-for-2 on takedowns in the first meeting but remains the more credible submission threat.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Sumudaerji by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Perez 36%, Sumudaerji 64%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 38% overall: Perez 10%, Sumudaerji 28%
Submission, 16% overall: Perez 13%, Sumudaerji 3%
Decision, 46% overall: Perez 13%, Sumudaerji 33%

How Claude sees the fight

Immediate rematch of a May 30, 2026 No Contest (groin kick, R2 1:45): Perez won R1 with pressure and front-headlock threats before Sumudaerji dropped him with a straight left early in R2 (source-1, source-9). The market sits at Sumudaerji -195/-235, ~63-65% no-vig (source-10). I lean with it: his +7-inch reach, 2.29 SApM absorbed and 73% takedown defense across three straight decision wins outweigh Perez's guillotine path — real against a man with six submission losses, but Perez is 34, averages 6:47 of cage time, and is on a 13-week turnaround (source-3, source-5, source-6).

Keys to victory

  • Sumudaerji's 7-inch reach edge and straight left dropped Perez in R2 of the first fight; the market now prices him -195/-235 (source-9, source-10)
  • Perez's path is the guillotine: 6 of Sumudaerji's 7 losses are submissions, but his TDD is 73% and he stuffed the R1 takedown attempt (source-3, source-6)
  • Perez is 34 and averages 6:47 per fight; Sumudaerji averages 10:44 with three straight decisions, so distance math favors blue (source-5, source-6)

X-factor

Foul recurrence: the first bout featured an eye poke and low blows, so another point deduction or no contest is a live outcome (source-1, source-9).

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Sumudaerji by KO/TKO in round 2

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Perez 45%, Sumudaerji 55%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 35% overall: Perez 10%, Sumudaerji 25%
Submission, 20% overall: Perez 15%, Sumudaerji 5%
Decision, 45% overall: Perez 20%, Sumudaerji 25%

How Gemini sees the fight

Sumudaerji possesses a significant 7-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage that will complicate distance management for Perez. Although Perez has the wrestling edge and a high striking volume, bridging the distance against a long, southpaw Sanda striker will be challenging. Sumudaerji's youth and outside precision striking give him a clear path to victory, provided he can avoid Perez's takedown attempts.

Keys to victory

  • Sumudaerji's massive 7-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage.
  • Perez's strong grappling base and top control advantage on the mat.
  • Sumudaerji's southpaw stance and outside distance management.

X-factor

Perez's ability to safely bridge the distance and enter the pocket without absorbing significant damage from Sumudaerji's long-range attacks.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

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