UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse  5 Sep 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France, FR

Modestas Bukauskas defeats Oumar Sy by KO/TKO

Loss Oumar Sy 12-3-0
Win Modestas Bukauskas 21-7-0
KO/TKO · knee and punches

Round 2 · 3:57

Sy vs Bukauskas · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Sy took a body kick into a single-leg, then mount, back and mount again with elbows and enough ground-and-pound that the referee warned Bukauskas to defend himself.

Bukauskas came out for round two with visible damage under his right eye, reversed one of Sy's takedowns into side control, then took over on the feet as Sy's output dropped.

A knee to the head sat Sy down and Bukauskas swarmed with punches until the referee intervened.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Sy

Sy is 12-2 and the longest fighter on the card at 211 cm of reach. He absorbs 1.87 significant strikes a minute behind 67% defence — the best defensive pairing in this bout — and has never been knocked down in the UFC: 0.00 knockdown average conceded across an 08:34 average.

Case for Bukauskas

Bukauskas is a kickboxer with 20 wins and the volume record here: 411 significant strikes landed to Sy’s 146. His 82% takedown defence meets a man who has attempted 20 takedowns and landed 2, a 10% conversion rate.

What We Were Watching For

  • Sy has attempted 20 takedowns in the UFC and landed 2. Bukauskas defends 82%.
  • Reach: 211 cm for Sy, 198 cm for Bukauskas — a 13 cm gap at light heavyweight.
  • Bukauskas absorbs 3.86 a minute to Sy’s 1.87, and lands 3.14 to Sy’s 3.41.
  • Neither man is a knockdown threat by the numbers: 0.11 for Bukauskas, 0.00 for Sy.
Records & career stats
Sy vs Bukauskas
Sy Bukauskas
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.57 3.10
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 64% 50%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 1.97 3.89
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 67% 78%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 75% 71%
12-2-0
Record
20-7-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
France
Nationality
Lithuania
30
Age
32
1.93 m
Height — Sy leads
1.91 m
211 cm
Reach — Sy leads
198 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
75%
Finish rateFinish % — Sy leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
71%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bukauskas leads
12
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Sy leads
3
3.57
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Sy leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.10
1.97
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Sy leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.89
64%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Sy leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Bukauskas leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
78%
08:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:59
Bulgarian Top Team
Team
Gintas Combat

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 15:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Thinks Sy's reach and wrestling let him out-work Bukauskas across fifteen minutes.

“I'm going to go with Umarci on the judges scorecards to do a little more over the 15 minutes and take it on uh unanimous decision probably.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 14:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Calls both fighters unreliable but gives Sy a slight edge on reach and grappling in an expected split.

“But in terms of a pick, I'll pick Umarci.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 6:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Expects Sy to simply do more over fifteen minutes than a low-output Bukauskas.

“I'll take Omar Sy to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 20:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Rates Sy the bigger, faster, more well-rounded athlete, while declining to back the decision prop.

“I do think Umar Sal wins this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
James Lynch
Source unavailable — 6:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Rates Sy's level of opposition and power higher, and expects a close fight scored at home in Paris.

“give me C by decision to have a close fight here with Modesus.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Distrusts Sy's grappling entries after a prior submission loss and backs Bukauskas' takedown defence and right hand.

“going with Modestas Bukauskas to win this one by round two TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 10:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Picks Oumar Sy by decision.

“Give me um sigh by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Prefers Bukauskas, while the transcript's method wording is not reliable enough to retain a method.

“I'm going to go with Modestas Bukauskas.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Hit; James Lynch Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Distrusts Sy's grappling entries after a prior submission loss and backs Bukauskas' takedown defence and right hand.

“going with Modestas Bukauskas to win this one by round two TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Bukauskas · KO/TKO · R2Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2HitHitHit
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 15:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Thinks Sy's reach and wrestling let him out-work Bukauskas across fifteen minutes.

“I'm going to go with Umarci on the judges scorecards to do a little more over the 15 minutes and take it on uh unanimous decision probably.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sy · DecBukauskas · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 14:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Calls both fighters unreliable but gives Sy a slight edge on reach and grappling in an expected split.

“But in terms of a pick, I'll pick Umarci.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sy · to winBukauskas · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Husky Hustler31 resolved calls
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 10:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Picks Oumar Sy by decision.

“Give me um sigh by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (31 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Bukauskas · DecBukauskas · KO/TKO R2HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 6:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Expects Sy to simply do more over fifteen minutes than a low-output Bukauskas.

“I'll take Omar Sy to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sy · DecBukauskas · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 20:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Rates Sy the bigger, faster, more well-rounded athlete, while declining to back the decision prop.

“I do think Umar Sal wins this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sy · to winBukauskas · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Prefers Bukauskas, while the transcript's method wording is not reliable enough to retain a method.

“I'm going to go with Modestas Bukauskas.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Bukauskas · to winBukauskas · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
James Lynch44 resolved calls
James Lynch
Source unavailable — 6:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Rates Sy's level of opposition and power higher, and expects a close fight scored at home in Paris.

“give me C by decision to have a close fight here with Modesus.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sy · DecBukauskas · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

3 of 8 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Bukauskas · KO/TKO · R2

Closest probability Claude put 36% on Bukauskas.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
70% Sy
30% Bukauskas
PickSy · DecisionActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
64% Sy
36% Bukauskas
PickSy · KO/TKO · R1ActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
66% Sy
34% Bukauskas
PickSy · KO/TKO · R2ActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep

All 3 models pick Sy

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 64% (Claude) to 70% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 27% (Claude) to 47% (ChatGPT), a 20-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Sy by decision

    Win probability: Sy 70%, Bukauskas 30%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Sy by KO/TKO in round 1

    Win probability: Sy 64%, Bukauskas 36%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Sy by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Sy 66%, Bukauskas 34%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail4 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 1Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 1Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Sy by decision

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Sy 70%, Bukauskas 30%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 37% overall: Sy 25%, Bukauskas 12%
Submission, 16% overall: Sy 13%, Bukauskas 3%
Decision, 47% overall: Sy 32%, Bukauskas 15%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Sy by KO/TKO in round 1

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Sy 64%, Bukauskas 36%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 48% overall: Sy 30%, Bukauskas 18%
Submission, 25% overall: Sy 20%, Bukauskas 5%
Decision, 27% overall: Sy 14%, Bukauskas 13%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Sy by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Sy 66%, Bukauskas 34%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 42% overall: Sy 28%, Bukauskas 14%
Submission, 16% overall: Sy 14%, Bukauskas 2%
Decision, 42% overall: Sy 24%, Bukauskas 18%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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