Dawson vs Aliev · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Scheduled · 24 Oct 2026 UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev UFC 333 · Preliminary Card · 3 rounds · Abu Dhabi
Grant
Dawson
Record Record: 24-3-1
Wins
24
Losses
3
Draws
1
5KO/TKO
14Sub
5Dec

Red corner

24-3-1
Record
12-0-0
Source pending
Nationality
Source pending
32
Age
25
70 in
Height
70 in
72 in
Reach
72 in
3.14
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Dawson leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.29
79%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
Nurullo
Aliev
Record Record: 12-0-0
Wins
12
Losses
0
Draws
0
2KO/TKO
0Sub
10Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+9)
24-3-1
Record
12-0-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
Source pending
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Source pending
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Dawson leads
2
14
Wins by submissionSub wins — Dawson leads
0
2.14
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Aliev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1.59
45%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Aliev leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Aliev leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
80%
11:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:55

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

The Cage Doctor

Current pick evidence

Picked: Grant Dawson

The Cage Doctor expects Aliev to struggle to outgrapple Dawson and probably takes Dawson to win. He values Dawson’s grappling and submission game despite criticising his boxing.

* An early probable selection; he also identifies Dawson as a friend of the channel.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (1 calls)
Chris Schweppe

Current pick evidence

Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec

Schweppe explicitly selects Dawson by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)

Analyst picks: The Cage Doctor picks Dawson; Chris Schweppe picks Dawson.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
The Cage Doctor1 resolved call
The Cage Doctor

Current pick evidence

Picked: Grant Dawson

The Cage Doctor expects Aliev to struggle to outgrapple Dawson and probably takes Dawson to win. He values Dawson’s grappling and submission game despite criticising his boxing.

* An early probable selection; he also identifies Dawson as a friend of the channel.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (1 calls)
Dawson · to winUpcomingDawsonNot calledNot called
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe

Current pick evidence

Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec

Schweppe explicitly selects Dawson by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Dawson · DecUpcomingDawsonDecNot called

1 of 2 see it go the distance.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

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