UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld  8 Aug 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Manoel Sousa defeats Richie Miranda by unanimous decision

Win Manoel Sousa 15-1-0
Loss Richie Miranda 13-2-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Sousa vs Miranda — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Miranda dragged Sousa to the canvas in the first and worked from his back.

Sousa hurt Miranda in the second round and shifted the fight back toward the feet.

Sousa's pressure and cleaner work over the final rounds produced the unanimous decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Sousa

Sousa is 1-0 in the UFC after stopping Bolaji Oki with a third-round TKO in March, having earned his contract by finishing Cristian Perez on the Contender Series the previous August. Nine of his fourteen career wins have come by knockout and three more by submission, and the UFC lists him as a striker — a profile his lone Octagon outing backed up at 4.15 significant strikes landed per minute and 45% accuracy.

Case for Miranda

Miranda has not lost since April 2023, riding a seven-fight win streak that includes taking the LFA lightweight title in April 2025 and defending it twice. The UFC lists him as a wrestler, backed by two years as a junior-college All-American before moving up to Division II, and he trains under Cub Swanson. Five of his thirteen wins have come by knockout and three by submission, but this is his first fight under the UFC banner and there is no Octagon tape on him.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Miranda's college wrestling can get takedowns on a fighter the UFC lists as a striker.
  • Sousa already has UFC tape — 4.15 significant strikes landed per minute at 45% accuracy — while Miranda enters with none.
  • Two Octagon debuts one fight apart: Sousa 1-0 off a third-round TKO, Miranda unbeaten in seven going back to April 2023.
  • Both fighters finish: Sousa has stopped twelve of his fourteen opponents, Miranda eight of his thirteen — whether this one sees the scorecards at all.
Records & career stats
Sousa vs Miranda
14-1-0
Record
13-1-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
Brazil
Nationality
United States
29
Age
31
1.75 m
Height — Sousa leads
1.73 m
178 cm
Reach — Miranda leads
191 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
80%
Finish rateFinish % — Sousa leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
62%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Sousa leads
5
3
Wins by submissionSub wins
3
4.27
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Sousa leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.07
3.48
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Sousa leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.47
55%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Sousa leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
44%
74%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
Not published
14:04
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Academia Octógono
Team
Bloodline Combat Sports

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 26:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Resolves a close call toward Sousa.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 8:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Settles on Sousa by third-round TKO after weighing the finish.

“Manuel Sosa, I think, is going to be able to walk through what Richie Miranda has and eventually just put him down, dude. You know, I mean, he's going to land that Miranda right straight on the chin of Richie. Oh, just jokes. Manuel shows it gets it done. Round three, TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 5:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Leans Sousa without a method.

“I'm going to favor Souza in this one. I think he gets it done probably by finish against Miranda.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 4:44

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by second-round knockout.

“He goes out there and knocks out Richie Miranda. We'll say second round knockout for Manel Sousa.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Marcel Dorff
Hear it — 9:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by knockout.

“I’m picking Sousa by knockout as well, just like you.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Adam Martin
Hear it — 8:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by knockout.

“I’m going to take Manuel Sousa by knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 8:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by knockout.

“is drinking the same thing Paulo Costa is. I'm going Manuel Sza via knockout. Jose Montana.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 2:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda by knockout, hedging between the second and third round.

“I'm going with Manuel Souza to win this one by knockout in the second or third round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 4:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda without naming a method.

“definitely rolling with Richie Miranda on this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 19:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda · Dec

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda by decision.

“Richie Miranda gets it done”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 8:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda without a method.

“But for now, I'm picky Richie Miranda.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 9:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Leans Miranda without a firm method.

“gonna go with the underdog in the first fight of the night and pick Richie Miranda.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Bookie Beatdown
Hear it — 84:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Leans Miranda without a firm method.

“I got Richie Moran.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
View full track record (36 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; AJ Devito Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Marcel Dorff Hit; Adam Martin Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Bookie Beatdown Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 2:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda by knockout, hedging between the second and third round.

“I'm going with Manuel Souza to win this one by knockout in the second or third round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · KO/TKOSousa · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 26:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Resolves a close call toward Sousa.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · to winSousa · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 4:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda without naming a method.

“definitely rolling with Richie Miranda on this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to winSousa · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 8:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Settles on Sousa by third-round TKO after weighing the finish.

“Manuel Sosa, I think, is going to be able to walk through what Richie Miranda has and eventually just put him down, dude. You know, I mean, he's going to land that Miranda right straight on the chin of Richie. Oh, just jokes. Manuel shows it gets it done. Round three, TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO · R3Sousa · Dec R3HitMissMiss
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 5:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Leans Sousa without a method.

“I'm going to favor Souza in this one. I think he gets it done probably by finish against Miranda.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · to winSousa · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 19:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda · Dec

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda by decision.

“Richie Miranda gets it done”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · DecSousa · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 4:44

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by second-round knockout.

“He goes out there and knocks out Richie Miranda. We'll say second round knockout for Manel Sousa.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO · R2Sousa · Dec R3HitMissMiss
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 8:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Miranda without a method.

“But for now, I'm picky Richie Miranda.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to winSousa · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 9:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Leans Miranda without a firm method.

“gonna go with the underdog in the first fight of the night and pick Richie Miranda.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to winSousa · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Marcel Dorff29 resolved calls
Marcel Dorff
Hear it — 9:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by knockout.

“I’m picking Sousa by knockout as well, just like you.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKOSousa · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Adam Martin40 resolved calls
Adam Martin
Hear it — 8:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by knockout.

“I’m going to take Manuel Sousa by knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKOSousa · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Mike Finch40 resolved calls
Mike Finch
Hear it — 8:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manoel Sousa · KO/TKO

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Takes Sousa by knockout.

“is drinking the same thing Paulo Costa is. I'm going Manuel Sza via knockout. Jose Montana.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKOSousa · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Bookie Beatdown36 resolved calls
Bookie Beatdown
Hear it — 84:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Richie Miranda

Fight result: Manoel Sousa · Decision

Leans Miranda without a firm method.

“I got Richie Moran.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
View full track record (36 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to winSousa · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

7 of 13 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.