Alexia Thainara defeats Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision
Lemos vs Thainara — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Thainara traded and hurt Lemos at different points while continuing to use her grappling.
Lemos answered in the second with a right hand that put Thainara on shaky legs.
The judges gave Thainara the biggest win of her career by unanimous decision.
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Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA perfect call; We Want Picks called it; Half The Battle perfect call; DFS By The Numbers perfect call; AJ perfect call; KennyOkoyeMMA perfect call; MMAPREDICTIONGURU perfect call; TheWeasle perfect call; The MMA Guru missed; Michael Chiesa missed.
8 of 10 nailed it · 7 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Takes Thainara to win a decision.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Thainara · to win. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Hit.
Makes Thainara the pick as a modest favourite, with no method.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Sees Thainara winning at least two rounds and taking the decision.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Takes Thainara on the scorecards.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Predicts Thainara on the scorecards in a grappling-heavy fight.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Expects the fight to go the distance and favours Thainara clearly.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Calls a Thainara decision, either 30-27 or 29-28.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 34 of 48 TheWeasle: predicted Thainara · Decision. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Has Thainara out-pointing Lemos over three rounds.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 48 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Lemos · Sub. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Miss.
Goes against Thainara, backing Lemos's hands and power against a grappler he still rates as unproven, and calls a guillotine in the first or second round.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Lemos · to win. Actual Thainara · Dec. Result: Miss.
A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 2.75 4.62
- 45% 60%
- 3.01 2.46
- 63% 100%
- 73% 57%
- 15-6-1
- Record
- 14-1-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:23
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Marajó Brothers
- Team
- Academia Ribas Family / Team LJ combat
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Lemos
Lemos still carries the heavier hands here and a 73% finish rate built on stopping opponents rather than outpointing them. She beat Iasmin Lucindo inside the last eighteen months, so the level has not gone. If Thainara's takedown entries stall and the fight is contested in space, that is the territory where Lemos has always been most dangerous.
Case for Thainara
Thainara is 5-0 in her last five and the underlying numbers travel: 4.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.82 submission attempts, and 100% takedown defence across her recorded sample. Lemos is 2-3 across the same span. Thainara also lands 4.62 significant strikes a minute to 2.46 absorbed, so she does not have to trade to stay in front.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Lemos has an answer for a 4.54-takedown-per-15-minute pace.
- Thainara's 100% takedown defence against an opponent with a 73% finish rate.
- How Lemos's output holds at 12:23, which is Thainara's average fight time.
- Whether Thainara's 57% finish rate converts control into a stoppage or another decision.
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