UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Alexia Thainara defeats Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Lemos vs Thainara — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Thainara traded and hurt Lemos at different points while continuing to use her grappling.
Lemos answered in the second with a right hand that put Thainara on shaky legs.
The judges gave Thainara the biggest win of her career by unanimous decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Lemos
Lemos still carries the heavier hands here and a 73% finish rate built on stopping opponents rather than outpointing them. She beat Iasmin Lucindo inside the last eighteen months, so the level has not gone. If Thainara's takedown entries stall and the fight is contested in space, that is the territory where Lemos has always been most dangerous.
Case for Thainara
Thainara is 5-0 in her last five and the underlying numbers travel: 4.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.82 submission attempts, and 100% takedown defence across her recorded sample. Lemos is 2-3 across the same span. Thainara also lands 4.62 significant strikes a minute to 2.46 absorbed, so she does not have to trade to stay in front.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Lemos has an answer for a 4.54-takedown-per-15-minute pace.
- Thainara's 100% takedown defence against an opponent with a 73% finish rate.
- How Lemos's output holds at 12:23, which is Thainara's average fight time.
- Whether Thainara's 57% finish rate converts control into a stoppage or another decision.
Records & career stats
- 2.84 4.80
- 44% 56%
- 3.22 2.76
- 63% 100%
- 73% 57%
- 15-6-1
- Record
- 14-1-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 39
- Age
- 30
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 11:02
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:54
- Marajo Brothers
- Team
- Academia Ribas Family / Team LJ combat
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Amanda Lemos
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent.
“I'm going with Amanda Amanda Lemos.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Amanda Lemos · Sub
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Goes against Thainara, backing Lemos's hands and power against a grappler he still rates as unproven, and calls a guillotine in the first or second round.
“I'm actually going to go against Alexia Tinara here to be honest with you guys. I think this will be like the first capable opponent that she's fought.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Takes Thainara to win a decision.
“We're going to go with Alexa Tonara to win this one by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Has Thainara out-pointing Lemos over three rounds.
“So, Alexia Tanara by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Expects the fight to go the distance and favours Thainara clearly.
“This one's definitely going the distance in my opinion. As far as who wins, I'm definitely going to lean out Alexia Diana.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Takes Thainara on the scorecards.
“Give me Viana. I'll take Viana to win this fight by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Makes Thainara the pick as a modest favourite, with no method.
“Alexa is going to be the pick.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Calls a Thainara decision, either 30-27 or 29-28.
“And I think Tinara will win a decision”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Alexia Thainara by decision.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
- Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexia Thainara · Dec
Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision
Sees Thainara winning at least two rounds and taking the decision.
“I see Alexi Tinaro winning at least two of these rounds. And for that reason, I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Takes Thainara to win a decision. “We're going to go with Alexa Tonara to win this one by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Takes Thainara to win a decision. “We're going to go with Alexa Tonara to win this one by decision.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasle
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Has Thainara out-pointing Lemos over three rounds. “So, Alexia Tanara by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Has Thainara out-pointing Lemos over three rounds. “So, Alexia Tanara by decision.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidencePicked: Amanda Lemos Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent. “I'm going with Amanda Amanda Lemos.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Lemos · to win | Thainara · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent. “I'm going with Amanda Amanda Lemos.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Amanda Lemos · Sub Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Goes against Thainara, backing Lemos's hands and power against a grappler he still rates as unproven, and calls a guillotine in the first or second round. “I'm actually going to go against Alexia Tinara here to be honest with you guys. I think this will be like the first capable opponent that she's fought.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Lemos · Sub | Thainara · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Goes against Thainara, backing Lemos's hands and power against a grappler he still rates as unproven, and calls a guillotine in the first or second round. “I'm actually going to go against Alexia Tinara here to be honest with you guys. I think this will be like the first capable opponent that she's fought.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Expects the fight to go the distance and favours Thainara clearly. “This one's definitely going the distance in my opinion. As far as who wins, I'm definitely going to lean out Alexia Diana.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Expects the fight to go the distance and favours Thainara clearly. “This one's definitely going the distance in my opinion. As far as who wins, I'm definitely going to lean out Alexia Diana.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Takes Thainara on the scorecards. “Give me Viana. I'll take Viana to win this fight by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Takes Thainara on the scorecards. “Give me Viana. I'll take Viana to win this fight by decision.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Makes Thainara the pick as a modest favourite, with no method. “Alexa is going to be the pick.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · to win | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Makes Thainara the pick as a modest favourite, with no method. “Alexa is going to be the pick.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Calls a Thainara decision, either 30-27 or 29-28. “And I think Tinara will win a decision” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Calls a Thainara decision, either 30-27 or 29-28. “And I think Tinara will win a decision”
Hear it — 54:34
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record →
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Alexia Thainara by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Alexia Thainara by decision. Track record: winner called in 34 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexia Thainara · Dec Fight result: Alexia Thainara · Decision Sees Thainara winning at least two rounds and taking the decision. “I see Alexi Tinaro winning at least two of these rounds. And for that reason, I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Sees Thainara winning at least two rounds and taking the decision. “I see Alexi Tinaro winning at least two of these rounds. And for that reason, I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this decision.” Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
8 of 10 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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