Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Jean Silva defeats Jose Miguel Delgado by Submission

Win Jean Silva 18-3-0
Loss Jose Miguel Delgado 12-3-0
Watch the fight
Submission · rear-naked choke

Round 3 · 2:57

Silva vs Delgado — Featherweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Delgado created early danger with forward pressure, but Silva stayed composed through the exchanges.

Silva recovered his position and turned the fight toward the ground as the main event developed.

Silva secured the rear-naked choke at 2:57 of round three for the official submission win.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Silva

UFC lists Jean Silva sixth at featherweight. His current UFC record includes a unanimous-decision win over Arnold Allen in January, giving him recent five-round main-event stakes against a new opponent.

Case for Delgado

UFC bills Jose Miguel Delgado as Arizona's own for the Glendale card. His athlete profile lists a unanimous-decision win over Austin Bashi in July, adding recent momentum to his first UFC main event.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Silva can use his ranked experience across a five-round main event.
  • How Delgado handles the first UFC headliner of his career in Arizona.
  • The effect of Delgado's recent decision win over Austin Bashi on this booking.
  • Which featherweight leaves Glendale with the stronger current case in the division.
Records & career stats
Silva vs Delgado
17-3-0
Record
12-2-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
Brazil
Nationality
United States
29
Age
28
1.70 m
Height — Delgado leads
1.80 m
175 cm
Reach — Delgado leads
185 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
91%
12
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Silva leads
6
—
Wins by submissionSub wins
4
4.55
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Delgado leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.50
4.29
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Delgado leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.95
55%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Silva leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
52%
79%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Silva leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
63%
09:46
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:41
The Fighting Nerds
Team
The MMA Lab

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Jean Silva Octagon Interview | Noche UFC
Before the fight (5)
Fight-week fighter interview▶ Jean Silva previews Noche UFC main event vs Jose Delgado: "I'm going to knock him out" Fighter interview▶ Jose Miguel Delgado interview | Noche UFC Fight-week fighter interview▶ Jose Delgado Calls Jean Silva A 'COWARD' Ahead of UFC Noche, Emotional Life Journey to Main Event

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Live Dogs MMA
Hear it — 9:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva; the transcript first names decision and later names submission, so method is left unspecified.

“I am picking Silva and I’m picking by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (13 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by TKO; the caption renders Jean as John and omits Delgado's middle name, while the canonical matchup is clear.

“John Silva should be able to muster up a TKO win within the second or third round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Dissection Of Violence
Hear it — 41:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“My pick will be Silva.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (11 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 35:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by Submission in round 3.

“I think Jean turns it up in the third and gets the submission. I'm going to go with Jean Silva by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 36:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by KO in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Silva by a first-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 39:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to say Jean Silva highlight reel, devastating KO, late first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 46:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · Round 2

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“Silva is going to finish Jose Miguel Delgado in round two.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 34:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 2.

“I'll take Jean Silva to win this fight by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 143:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“Jean Silva is going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 2:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by KO.

“The pick for this fight will be Jean Silva to win by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 33:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by TKO.

“Gets the ground and pound TKO finish. So I'm going to go with Jean Silva to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 60:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“Jean Silva in the main event is going to be the prediction for me.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Jean Silva by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 5:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“I'll pick Jean Silva as a pure pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Live Dogs MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Dissection Of Violence Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Kunath Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Live Dogs MMA13 resolved calls
Live Dogs MMA
Hear it — 9:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva; the transcript first names decision and later names submission, so method is left unspecified.

“I am picking Silva and I’m picking by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (13 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to winSilva · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by TKO; the caption renders Jean as John and omits Delgado's middle name, while the canonical matchup is clear.

“John Silva should be able to muster up a TKO win within the second or third round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKOSilva · Sub R3HitMissNot called
Dissection Of Violence11 resolved calls
Dissection Of Violence
Hear it — 41:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“My pick will be Silva.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
View full track record (11 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to winSilva · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 35:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by Submission in round 3.

“I think Jean turns it up in the third and gets the submission. I'm going to go with Jean Silva by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · Sub · R3Silva · Sub R3HitHitHit
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 36:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by KO in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Silva by a first-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKO · R1Silva · Sub R3HitMissMiss
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 39:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to say Jean Silva highlight reel, devastating KO, late first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKO · R1Silva · Sub R3HitMissMiss
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 46:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · Round 2

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“Silva is going to finish Jose Miguel Delgado in round two.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to winSilva · Sub R3HitNot calledMiss
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 34:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 2.

“I'll take Jean Silva to win this fight by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKO · R2Silva · Sub R3HitMissMiss
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 143:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“Jean Silva is going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to winSilva · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath
Hear it — 2:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by KO.

“The pick for this fight will be Jean Silva to win by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKOSilva · Sub R3HitMissNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 33:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva by TKO.

“Gets the ground and pound TKO finish. So I'm going to go with Jean Silva to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKOSilva · Sub R3HitMissNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 60:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“Jean Silva in the main event is going to be the prediction for me.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to winSilva · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Jean Silva by knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKOSilva · Sub R3HitMissNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 5:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jean Silva

Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission

Picks Jean Silva to win.

“I'll pick Jean Silva as a pure pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to winSilva · Sub R3HitNot calledNot called

14 of 14 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Silva · Submission · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT and Claude put 80% on Silva.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
80% Silva
20% Delgado
PickSilva · KO/TKO · R3ActualSilva · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundHitHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
80% Silva
20% Delgado
PickSilva · KO/TKO · R2ActualSilva · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
76% Silva
24% Delgado
PickSilva · KO/TKO · R2ActualSilva · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Silva

All three expect a win by KO/TKO, with win chances from 76% (Gemini) to 80% (ChatGPT and Claude).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 55% (Claude) to 62% (Gemini), a 7-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Silva by KO/TKO in round 3

    Win probability: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Silva by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    High confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Silva by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Silva 76%, Delgado 24%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    High confidence
More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 3Round 2Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 3Round 2Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Silva by KO/TKO in round 3

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 56% overall: Silva 48%, Delgado 8%
Submission, 10% overall: Silva 8%, Delgado 2%
Decision, 34% overall: Silva 24%, Delgado 10%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Silva by KO/TKO in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 55% overall: Silva 45%, Delgado 10%
Submission, 17% overall: Silva 10%, Delgado 7%
Decision, 28% overall: Silva 25%, Delgado 3%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Silva by KO/TKO in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Silva 76%, Delgado 24%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 62% overall: Silva 48%, Delgado 14%
Submission, 10% overall: Silva 8%, Delgado 2%
Decision, 28% overall: Silva 20%, Delgado 8%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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