UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer  28 Mar 2026 · Seattle, Washington, US

Alexa Grasso defeats Maycee Barber by KO/TKO

Win Alexa Grasso 17-5-1
Loss Maycee Barber 14-3-0
KO/TKO

Round 1 ·

Grasso vs Barber — Women's Flyweight Co-Main Event · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Grasso and Barber met in the Seattle co-main event.

The fight ended in the first round rather than going the distance.

Grasso hurt Barber with a left hand and followed her down with a rear-naked choke, though the choke was not needed — Barber was already out from the strike.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Grasso

Grasso's case rested on the identity that carried her to flyweight gold: a sharp jab, patient range management, and composure that usually outlasts chaos. She had already beaten Barber once, by unanimous decision at UFC 258 in 2021, and the rematch was a chance to show that the same clean boxing still solved Barber's pressure — even after a turbulent championship stretch with Shevchenko (a win, a draw, and a title-losing decision) and a decision loss to Natalia Silva.

Case for Barber

Barber's case was pressure, power, and unfinished business. Since that 2021 loss to Grasso, "The Future" rebuilt her flyweight standing with a long run of wins over names like Amanda Ribas and Katlyn Cerminara, and the rematch was her chance to finally get past the one flyweight who had already beaten her and prove her hard-hitting, wrestling-infused pressure had caught up to Grasso's technical edge.

What We Were Watching For

  • Could Barber's forward pressure and heavy hands finally close the gap that Grasso's boxing opened at UFC 258, or would the rematch play out the same way?
  • Whether Grasso's turbulent championship stretch with Shevchenko and the loss to Natalia Silva had eroded the composure that beat Barber the first time.
  • Barber's reactive wrestling as a way to disrupt Grasso's rhythm without conceding too much on the feet.
  • Whether either woman's finishing instincts — Barber's power, Grasso's precision — could end the rematch before the scorecards mattered again.
Records & career stats
Grasso vs Barber
Grasso Barber
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.19 4.56
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 60% 55%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.78 2.78
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 55% 52%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 39% 53%
16-5-1
Record
14-2-0
2-2-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
Mexico
Nationality
United States
32
Age
28
1.65 m
Height
1.65 m
168 cm
Reach — Grasso leads
165 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Switch
39%
Finish rateFinish % — Barber leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
53%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Barber leads
6
2
Wins by submissionSub wins
2
4.19
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Barber leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.56
3.78
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Barber leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.78
60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Grasso leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
55%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Grasso leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
52%
14:56
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:42
Lobo Gym MMA
Team
High Altitude Martial Arts

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 18:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Grasso's championship-level boxing is clearly superior and Barber can't hold her down.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
View full track record (53 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 30:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Grasso is now the one being picked apart at range; Barber gets revenge for a 29-28 decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 22:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber's improved footwork edges a very close, possibly split, decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 43:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber's toughness and density, and Grasso's recent stinkers, edge a close 29-28 decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 44:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber's wrestling and confidence grind out a win — flagged as a low-confidence pick.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 30:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber is the more relentless wrestler and controls Grasso for a decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; Lucas Tracy Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 30:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Grasso is now the one being picked apart at range; Barber gets revenge for a 29-28 decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · DecGrasso · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 22:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber's improved footwork edges a very close, possibly split, decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · DecGrasso · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Lucas Tracy53 resolved calls
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 18:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Grasso's championship-level boxing is clearly superior and Barber can't hold her down.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
View full track record (53 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Grasso · to winGrasso · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 43:10

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber's toughness and density, and Grasso's recent stinkers, edge a close 29-28 decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · DecGrasso · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 44:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber's wrestling and confidence grind out a win — flagged as a low-confidence pick.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · to winGrasso · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 30:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Maycee Barber · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · KO/TKO

Barber is the more relentless wrestler and controls Grasso for a decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · DecGrasso · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 1 of 6 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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