UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Axel Sola defeats Ismael Bonfim by Submission

Loss Ismael Bonfim 20-7-0
Win Axel Sola 12-1-1
Submission · D’Arce choke

Round 1 · 4:44

Bonfim vs Sola — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Bonfim pressed forward early, and Sola landed elbows that sent him to the canvas.

Sola landed short shots and looked for submissions from the top.

He locked the D’Arce choke for the tap at 4:44 of the first.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Bonfim

Bonfim is the more accomplished striker trying to stop a slide. 'Marreta' is a twenty-fight winner with crisp boxing and nine knockouts, but he has dropped three of his last five and badly needs a bounce-back. The pedigree still says he is the sharper technical striker in the matchup when he is on.

Case for Sola

Sola is the karate stylist with awkward angles and his own point to prove. The Frenchman is 11-1-1 and stopped Rhys McKee in the UFC before a decision loss to Mason Jones, and his kicking range and unorthodox footwork are a hard puzzle for a pressure boxer. If he keeps the fight at distance, he can out-point Bonfim.

What We Were Watching For

  • Boxing vs karate: Bonfim's pocket boxing against Sola's range kicking — who imposes their distance?
  • Bonfim's slide: three losses in his last five — is the chin and the timing still reliable under fire?
  • Sola's footwork: can he stay on the outside and avoid the exchanges where Bonfim's hands are sharpest?
  • Stakes: both men are on the wrong side of .500 in their last five — the winner buys real breathing room, the loser slides toward must-win territory.
Records & career stats
Bonfim vs Sola
Bonfim Sola
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.10 4.55
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 63% 61%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.96 4.52
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 77% 67%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 65% 64%
20-6-0
Record
11-1-1
1-4 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-1-1 last 5
Brazil
Nationality
France
30
Age
28
68.00 in
Height — Sola leads
1.80 m
71.50 in
Reach — Sola leads
188 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
65%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
64%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bonfim leads
7
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Bonfim leads
2
5.10
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bonfim leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.55
3.96
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Bonfim leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.52
63%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
77%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Bonfim leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
08:46
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:22

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 16:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“skin tone or whatever. Anyway, I'm going to move on. I'm going to pick Axel Solar”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 18:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · KO/TKO

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Takes Sola as the longer, quicker and more durable striker, expecting him to break Bonfim down and finish him with strikes.

“I'm going Axel Solo KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 1:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“Bonfam. That's a great fight as well. I'm going with the Frenchman. Taking”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 23:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Give me Axel Sola to go out here and melt Ishmael Bonfam in round. I'll say”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 9:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Takes Sola's cardio and pressure to break Bonfim down for a late knockout.

“I'm taking Axel Solola to give Bonfam his seventh finish loss. I'll take Axel Solo to win this fight by third round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 17:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Bonfine can be dangerous. Sol's tough as hell. Axel Solah easy clean pick for me.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“years. Um, I'm going to go with Axel Solo to win this one. Yeah, this should be a pretty straightforward win in my opinion to Axel Solo. He just lost to Mason Jones who's an absolute warrior,”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 16:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“skin tone or whatever. Anyway, I'm going to move on. I'm going to pick Axel Solar”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to winSola · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 18:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · KO/TKO

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Takes Sola as the longer, quicker and more durable striker, expecting him to break Bonfim down and finish him with strikes.

“I'm going Axel Solo KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · KO/TKOSola · Sub R1HitMissNot called
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 1:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.

“Bonfam. That's a great fight as well. I'm going with the Frenchman. Taking”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to winSola · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 23:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Give me Axel Sola to go out here and melt Ishmael Bonfam in round. I'll say”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to winSola · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 9:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Takes Sola's cardio and pressure to break Bonfim down for a late knockout.

“I'm taking Axel Solola to give Bonfam his seventh finish loss. I'll take Axel Solo to win this fight by third round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · KO/TKO · R3Sola · Sub R1HitMissMiss
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 17:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“Bonfine can be dangerous. Sol's tough as hell. Axel Solah easy clean pick for me.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to winSola · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Axel Sola

Fight result: Axel Sola · Submission

Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview.

“years. Um, I'm going to go with Axel Solo to win this one. Yeah, this should be a pretty straightforward win in my opinion to Axel Solo. He just lost to Mason Jones who's an absolute warrior,”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to winSola · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called

7 of 7 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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