UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Denise Gomes defeats Yan Xiaonan by KO/TKO

Loss Yan Xiaonan 19-6-0
Win Denise Gomes 13-3-0
KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:49

Yan Xiaonan vs Gomes — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Denise Gomes hurt Yan Xiaonan earlier in the opening round, but Yan recovered.

Gomes then landed a lead elbow and precise follow-up shots late in the round to secure the stoppage.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Yan Xiaonan

Yan lands 4.69 significant strikes a minute and has recorded 0.00 submission attempts per 15 — she does not go looking for the mat. Her fights average 15:01 and two have gone five rounds. The route is range, volume, and the scorecards that follow.

Case for Gomes

Gomes has won four in a row and stopped seven of her twelve opponents, and she will do what Yan will not: 1.45 takedowns and 0.72 submission attempts per 15 minutes, against a 65% takedown defence. The number working against her is her own 52% strike defence.

What We Were Watching For

  • Yan has not fought since Virna Jandiroba beat her in April 2025 — sixteen months out. Gomes fought in November and has won four straight.
  • Gomes's 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes against Yan's 65% takedown defence, the lower of the two.
  • Output is close, 4.69 against 4.43 landed a minute. Defence is not: 60% against 52%.
  • Yan averages 15:01 a fight and Gomes 11:30. Ten of Yan's nineteen wins went to the cards; seven of Gomes's twelve ended early.
Records & career stats
Yan Xiaonan vs Gomes
19-5-0
Record
12-3-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
China
Nationality
Brazil
37
Age
26
1.65 m
Height — Yan Xiaonan leads
1.57 m
160 cm
Reach
160 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
47%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
8
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Yan Xiaonan leads
0
4.67
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Yan Xiaonan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.40
3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.19
60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Yan Xiaonan leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
53%
65%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
14:18
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:50

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 25:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 23:04

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“So, I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 30:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win a close decision on cleaner output and experience at range.

“I'm going to go Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 56:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision for her technical striking, footwork, jab, and grappling defence.

“Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 21:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 48:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win at home.

“I expect her to get the victory here. Yan Xiaonan getting the win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Yan Xiaonan by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 7:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision.

“I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this unanimous decision in China.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai preview has Jesse Holland picking Xiaonan Yan by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 63:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Denise Gomes by decision, expecting her pressure and body work to slow Yan Xiaonan in a competitive fight.

“My official pick is Gomes by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 27:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Denise Gomes by decision as the younger, improving fighter with power and grappling routes.

“I'm going to take Denise Gomes for the upset.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 15:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks takes Denise Gomes as the underdog.

“I think Denise Gomes wins as a dog.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Jesse Holland Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 25:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 23:04

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“So, I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 63:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Denise Gomes by decision, expecting her pressure and body work to slow Yan Xiaonan in a competitive fight.

“My official pick is Gomes by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gomes · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 30:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win a close decision on cleaner output and experience at range.

“I'm going to go Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 56:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision for her technical striking, footwork, jab, and grappling defence.

“Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 27:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Denise Gomes by decision as the younger, improving fighter with power and grappling routes.

“I'm going to take Denise Gomes for the upset.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gomes · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 15:56

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks takes Denise Gomes as the underdog.

“I think Denise Gomes wins as a dog.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gomes · to winGomes · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 21:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 48:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win at home.

“I expect her to get the victory here. Yan Xiaonan getting the win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · to winGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Yan Xiaonan by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 7:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision.

“I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this unanimous decision in China.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jesse Holland55 resolved calls
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai preview has Jesse Holland picking Xiaonan Yan by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · DecGomes · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 3 of 12 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Gomes · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Gemini put 65% on Gomes.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
58% Xiaonan
42% Gomes
PickXiaonan · DecisionActualGomes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
56% Xiaonan
44% Gomes
PickXiaonan · DecisionActualGomes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
35% Xiaonan
65% Gomes
PickGomes · DecisionActualGomes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market underdogHitHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a hit.Historic market underdog: underdog call, hit
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight

2 of 3 models pick Xiaonan

ChatGPT and Claude pick Xiaonan; Gemini picks Gomes.

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 20% (Gemini) to 32% (Claude), a 12-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Xiaonan by decision

    Win probability: Xiaonan 58%, Gomes 42%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Xiaonan by decision

    Win probability: Xiaonan 56%, Gomes 44%.

    claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Gomes by decision

    Win probability: Xiaonan 35%, Gomes 65%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Medium confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Yan Xiaonan is the slight favorite, most likely by decision. Her superior documented striking defense, height, and high-level UFC experience give her the steadier three-round path, while Denise Gomes' youth, recent four-fight winning streak, greater takedown activity, and finishing profile keep the matchup competitive.”

What to watch

  • Yan's 60% significant-strike defense compares favorably with Gomes' 51%, despite broadly similar striking output and absorption rates.
  • Yan has faced more elite opposition and owns substantially more UFC and five-round experience.
  • Gomes is approximately 11.5 years younger, has won four straight, and carries the greater recent momentum after Yan's roughly 16.5-month layoff and latest loss.

Swing factor

Whether Gomes can turn her youth, pressure, and more frequent takedown offense into sustained control; if she cannot, Yan's cleaner defensive striking and experience are more likely to decide close, a

More detail3 areas differ

The models differ on winner, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Xiaonan by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Xiaonan 58%, Gomes 42%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 30% overall: Xiaonan 13%, Gomes 17%
Submission, 3% overall: Xiaonan 1%, Gomes 2%
Decision, 67% overall: Xiaonan 44%, Gomes 23%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Yan Xiaonan is the slight favorite, most likely by decision. Her superior documented striking defense, height, and high-level UFC experience give her the steadier three-round path, while Denise Gomes' youth, recent four-fight winning streak, greater takedown activity, and finishing profile keep the matchup competitive.

Keys to victory

  • Yan's 60% significant-strike defense compares favorably with Gomes' 51%, despite broadly similar striking output and absorption rates.
  • Yan has faced more elite opposition and owns substantially more UFC and five-round experience.
  • Gomes is approximately 11.5 years younger, has won four straight, and carries the greater recent momentum after Yan's roughly 16.5-month layoff and latest loss.

X-factor

Whether Gomes can turn her youth, pressure, and more frequent takedown offense into sustained control; if she cannot, Yan's cleaner defensive striking and experience are more likely to decide close, a

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Xiaonan by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Xiaonan 56%, Gomes 44%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 32% overall: Xiaonan 13%, Gomes 19%
Submission, 5% overall: Xiaonan 2%, Gomes 3%
Decision, 63% overall: Xiaonan 41%, Gomes 22%

How Claude sees the fight

Yan Xiaonan by decision is the modal outcome (~41%). She is the longer, higher-volume Sanda striker (4.69 sig/min, 60% striking defense) facing a 52% striking defense, and she beat Angela Hill, who out-paced and clinch-controlled Gomes (source-5, source-6, source-13). Offsetting: Yan is 37 off a 16.5-month layoff with 0% takedown accuracy and 65% TDD, while Gomes at 26 is 4-0 with real knockdown power and new wrestling (source-2, source-9, source-18). Three rounds compress Yan's grind-out edge. Yan ~56% / Gomes ~44%, in line with the ~-157 market (source-15).

Keys to victory

  • Yan's volume/technical striking and elite-opposition resume vs. Gomes' porous 52% striking defense (source-5, source-6)
  • Yan's 16.5-month layoff at 37 after a shutout loss to Jandiroba, unexplained in public reporting (source-2, source-9)
  • Gomes' knockdown rate plus emerging takedown/clinch game aimed at Yan's 65% TDD and zero offensive wrestling (source-6, source-18)

X-factor

Ring rust: if Yan's timing and cardio decayed over 16.5 months, Gomes' overhand and new trip-takedown game can steal or finish a round in a three-rounder where one bad frame is decisive.

claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Gomes by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Xiaonan 35%, Gomes 65%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: Xiaonan 5%, Gomes 15%
Submission, 6% overall: Xiaonan 1%, Gomes 5%
Decision, 74% overall: Xiaonan 29%, Gomes 45%

How Gemini sees the fight

While Yan Xiaonan brings extensive top-tier experience and a high-volume striking attack to her home country, Denise Gomes's significant youth advantage and more varied offensive arsenal give her the edge. Gomes's power and willingness to mix in grappling should allow her to win rounds against the 37-year-old veteran in a competitive bout that likely goes the distance.

Keys to victory

  • Gomes possesses a substantial 11-year youth advantage (26 vs 37), which is a critical factor in the women's strawweight division.
  • Yan relies on high-volume Sanda striking and experience, whereas Gomes possesses strong power and is more willing to mix in takedown threats.
  • Yan holds a significant edge in high-level UFC experience and will benefit from a hometown crowd advantage in China.

X-factor

Gomes's ability to utilize her grappling to disrupt Yan's striking rhythm versus Yan's ability to maintain her high-volume output and manage distance over three rounds.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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