Moicano vs Ortega — Lightweight · Crypto.com UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Cancelled · 19 Sep 2026 Crypto.com UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Crypto.com UFC 331 · Lightweight · 3 rounds · Los Angeles, California
Renato
Moicano
Record Record: 21-7-1
Wins
21
Losses
7
Draws
1
2KO/TKO
11Sub
8Dec

Red corner

21-7-1
Record
16-5-0
Brazil
Nationality
United States
37
Age
35
1.80 m
Height — Moicano leads
1.73 m
183 cm
Reach — Moicano leads
175 cm
4.10
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Moicano leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.84
62%
Finish rateFinish % — Ortega leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
69%
Brian
Ortega
Record Record: 16-5-0
Wins
16
Losses
5
Draws
0
3KO/TKO
8Sub
5Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+10)
21-7-1
Record
16-5-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Ortega leads
3
11
Wins by submissionSub wins — Moicano leads
8
3.55
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Moicano leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.38
60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Moicano leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
49%
64%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Moicano leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
09:24
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:49
American Top Team
Team
Team Ortega

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

What to expect

Case for Moicano

Moicano brings a submission-oriented lightweight game.

Case for Ortega

Ortega brings dangerous finishing ability and veteran composure.

What to Watch

  • Which fighter controls the grappling exchanges.
  • How both manage submission threats.

Comments

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 50:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Dec

AJ picks Renato Moicano by decision, expecting his more complete lightweight game to carry a competitive fight to the judges.

“So I'll take Moano by decision as the official pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 20:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Dec

Lucas Tracy transcript pick: Renato Moicano by decision.

“I am picking Renato Moicano to finish. Well, I'm going to go with decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
View full track record (53 calls)
138 MMA
Hear it — 28:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano

138 MMA transcript pick: Renato Moicano.

“I'm gonna take Moicano to get it done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
View full track record (39 calls)
GypMMA
Hear it — 1:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Dec

GypMMA picks Renato Moicano by decision.

“I think he wins the decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (17 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 24:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brian Ortega

Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Brian Ortega.

“Brian Ortega is not losing this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA picks Ortega; AJ Devito picks Moicano; Lucas Tracy picks Moicano; 138 MMA picks Moicano; GypMMA picks Moicano.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 24:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brian Ortega

Bedtime MMA transcript pick: Brian Ortega.

“Brian Ortega is not losing this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Ortega · to winUpcomingOrtegaNot calledNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 50:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Dec

AJ picks Renato Moicano by decision, expecting his more complete lightweight game to carry a competitive fight to the judges.

“So I'll take Moano by decision as the official pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Moicano · DecUpcomingMoicanoDecNot called
Lucas Tracy53 resolved calls
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 20:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Dec

Lucas Tracy transcript pick: Renato Moicano by decision.

“I am picking Renato Moicano to finish. Well, I'm going to go with decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
View full track record (53 calls)
Moicano · DecUpcomingMoicanoDecNot called
138 MMA39 resolved calls
138 MMA
Hear it — 28:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano

138 MMA transcript pick: Renato Moicano.

“I'm gonna take Moicano to get it done.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
View full track record (39 calls)
Moicano · to winUpcomingMoicanoNot calledNot called
GypMMA17 resolved calls
GypMMA
Hear it — 1:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Dec

GypMMA picks Renato Moicano by decision.

“I think he wins the decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (17 calls)
Moicano · DecUpcomingMoicanoDecNot called

3 of 5 see it go the distance.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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