UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Diego Ferreira defeats Billy Quarantillo by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Ferreira vs Quarantillo — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Ferreira produced the most significant-strike output of his career in the opening round.
He continued to build on that advantage in the second while Quarantillo kept pressing forward.
Ferreira controlled the third-round exchanges well enough to close out the unanimous decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Ferreira
Ferreira is the more efficient striker on paper — 4.70 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.46 absorbed, behind 56% striking defence. His opponent defends only 43% of what is thrown at him, and that defensive gap is the asset. Ferreira's 63% finish rate says he does not need the judges if the openings arrive early.
Case for Quarantillo
Quarantillo's 7.44 significant strikes per minute is far and away the highest figure in this matchup, and an 11:05 average fight time says he is comfortable holding that rate into the later rounds. He is not purely a striker either, adding 1.47 takedowns and 1.02 submission attempts per 15 minutes against Ferreira's 0.55, and his 72% finish rate is the better of the two. Ferreira has lost two of his last three, to Alexander Hernandez and Grant Dawson.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Quarantillo's 43% striking defence holds against an opponent who lands more than he absorbs.
- Ferreira's takedown defence, listed at 58%, against Quarantillo's 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- How each man looks late: Quarantillo averages 11:05 a fight, Ferreira 9:43.
- Whether two matching 2-3 runs produce a cautious fight or a reckless one.
Records & career stats
- 4.95 7.18
- 57% 44%
- 3.58 6.02
- 58% 60%
- 63% 72%
- 19-7-0
- Record
- 18-7-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- 41
- Age
- 37
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 10:00
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 11:23
- Lightweight
- Weight classWeight
- Featherweight (moving up)
- Team Ferreira BJJ- Pharr, TX
- Team
- Gracie Pac MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Sees Ferreira drop Quarantillo with an overhand and choke him out in the second.
“So, I'm going to go Diego Fera submitting Billy Q after dropping with an overhand choking him out in the second round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Goes with Ferreira without naming a method.
“I'm going with Diego Fajita in this fight.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Expects Ferreira to stop Quarantillo in the first or second round, so no single round is recorded.
“So, I'm going to go with Diego Ferreira getting this one done by TKO in the first or second round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Goes with Ferreira partly on feel and partly on doubting Quarantillo's chin.
“Off of that, I'm going Diego Ferreira.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Wants Ferreira by first-round knockout specifically.
“I'm going Ferreira here. I'm going to take Ferreira to win this fight by first round knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · Dec
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Calls a unanimous decision for Ferreira.
“I'm going to go Diego Ferreira to win this one. Billy Quarantillo, I just don't think he's very good. Diego Ferreira gets this one done by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · Dec
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carlos Diego Ferreira by decision.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
- Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Ferreira by second-round TKO.
“Picking Ferreira by TKO second round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Ferreira by knockout.
“That’s my pick though, Ferreira by knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Picks Ferreira to beat Quarantillo, without a method.
“I'm going to pick CDF to come out here and beat Billy Q.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Ferreira · Sub
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 preview has Jesse Holland picking Diego Ferreira by submission.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Billy Quarantillo · Dec
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Takes Quarantillo on the scorecards.
“Billy Q is kind of meeting him in the middle. They're trading. And I do think that Billy Q will have better volume, better speed, better output. I think that he gets this one done by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Billy Quarantillo · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision
Goes to Quarantillo for a third-round stoppage.
“as a pick, I'll go Billy Q. Round three, KO TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Hit; Marcel Dorff Hit; Adam Martin Hit; Half The Battle Hit; Jesse Holland Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Billy Quarantillo · Dec Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Takes Quarantillo on the scorecards. “Billy Q is kind of meeting him in the middle. They're trading. And I do think that Billy Q will have better volume, better speed, better output. I think that he gets this one done by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Quarantillo · Dec | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Quarantillo on the scorecards. “Billy Q is kind of meeting him in the middle. They're trading. And I do think that Billy Q will have better volume, better speed, better output. I think that he gets this one done by decision.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasle
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · Sub · Round 2 Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Sees Ferreira drop Quarantillo with an overhand and choke him out in the second. “So, I'm going to go Diego Fera submitting Billy Q after dropping with an overhand choking him out in the second round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Sub · R2 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Sees Ferreira drop Quarantillo with an overhand and choke him out in the second. “So, I'm going to go Diego Fera submitting Billy Q after dropping with an overhand choking him out in the second round.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Goes with Ferreira without naming a method. “I'm going with Diego Fajita in this fight.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Goes with Ferreira without naming a method. “I'm going with Diego Fajita in this fight.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Expects Ferreira to stop Quarantillo in the first or second round, so no single round is recorded. “So, I'm going to go with Diego Ferreira getting this one done by TKO in the first or second round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Expects Ferreira to stop Quarantillo in the first or second round, so no single round is recorded. “So, I'm going to go with Diego Ferreira getting this one done by TKO in the first or second round.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Goes with Ferreira partly on feel and partly on doubting Quarantillo's chin. “Off of that, I'm going Diego Ferreira.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Goes with Ferreira partly on feel and partly on doubting Quarantillo's chin. “Off of that, I'm going Diego Ferreira.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Wants Ferreira by first-round knockout specifically. “I'm going Ferreira here. I'm going to take Ferreira to win this fight by first round knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO · R1 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Wants Ferreira by first-round knockout specifically. “I'm going Ferreira here. I'm going to take Ferreira to win this fight by first round knockout.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HopperMMA
HopperMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · Dec Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Calls a unanimous decision for Ferreira. “I'm going to go Diego Ferreira to win this one. Billy Quarantillo, I just don't think he's very good. Diego Ferreira gets this one done by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Dec | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Calls a unanimous decision for Ferreira. “I'm going to go Diego Ferreira to win this one. Billy Quarantillo, I just don't think he's very good. Diego Ferreira gets this one done by decision.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 121 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Current pick evidencePicked: Billy Quarantillo · KO/TKO · Round 3 Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Goes to Quarantillo for a third-round stoppage. “as a pick, I'll go Billy Q. Round three, KO TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Quarantillo · KO/TKO · R3 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Goes to Quarantillo for a third-round stoppage. “as a pick, I'll go Billy Q. Round three, KO TKO.”
Hear it — 57:45
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record →
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · Dec Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carlos Diego Ferreira by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Dec | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carlos Diego Ferreira by decision. Track record: winner called in 34 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Marcel Dorff
Marcel Dorff
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Ferreira by second-round TKO. “Picking Ferreira by TKO second round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO · R2 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Ferreira by second-round TKO. “Picking Ferreira by TKO second round.” Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Adam Martin
Adam Martin
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Ferreira by knockout. “That’s my pick though, Ferreira by knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Ferreira by knockout. “That’s my pick though, Ferreira by knockout.” Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision Picks Ferreira to beat Quarantillo, without a method. “I'm going to pick CDF to come out here and beat Billy Q.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Ferreira to beat Quarantillo, without a method. “I'm going to pick CDF to come out here and beat Billy Q.” Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jesse Holland
Jesse Holland
Current pick evidencePicked: Diego Ferreira · Sub Fight result: Diego Ferreira · Decision MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 preview has Jesse Holland picking Diego Ferreira by submission. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Sub | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Vegas 120 preview has Jesse Holland picking Diego Ferreira by submission. Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
11 of 13 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
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