Uroš Medić defeats Daniel Rodriguez by KO/TKO
Medić vs Rodriguez — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Rodriguez opened with a hard low kick that swept Medic to a knee. Medic got up immediately.
Medic answered with a left hand that put Rodriguez on the canvas. He then followed Rodriguez down.
Medic finished with strikes in front of the home crowd at the 30-second mark.
- Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade main card results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks called it; The MMA Guru perfect call; Michael Chiesa called it; Half The Battle called it; DFS By The Numbers perfect call; AJ perfect call; MMAPREDICTIONGURU perfect call; Bedtime MMA called it; HopperoMMA perfect call; JakeGerberMMA perfect call; James Lynch perfect call; KennyOkoyeMMA perfect call; Bookie Beatdown missed.
12 of 13 nailed it · 8 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Medić · to win. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Rates Medic faster, more diverse and harder-hitting, and does not expect Rodriguez to land the takedowns that might change it.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Medić · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Thinks Rodriguez's habit of lunging in and swinging from the waist walks him onto a Medic counter, and that Medic's body kicks plus his first-round finishing record end it early in front of a home crowd.
“I'm going to go with Uros Medic getting a first round TKO win over Daniel Rodriguez.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Medić · to win. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Called it a hard fight to pick and admitted a personal relationship with D-Rod, but went with Medic on explosiveness and fast starts, expecting him to bank big early rounds while conceding Rodriguez gets better the longer it goes.
“As contradictory as this is, I'm going with [Uroš] Medić. I just think that he's going to win big rounds early.”
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Medić · to win. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Says both men will engage but D-Rod is the one who gets dropped; Medic is in his prime and has fought three times since Rodriguez last fought, coming into camp already in shape.
“I just see a lot of positives on the side of Medic here, and I think he gets the biggest win of his career in his first UFC main event.”
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Medić · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Calls Medic a 100%-finish-rate killer with dynamite in his hands, and says Rodriguez at almost 40 has too much tread on the tires, pointing to him being badly hurt by a compromised Kevin Holland.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Medić · KO/TKO. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Rates Medic's speed, timing and kickboxing well above Rodriguez's boxing, and thinks D-Rod gets lit up on the feet in front of a home crowd despite his durability.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Medić · KO/TKO. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Says he would have picked Rodriguez if not for the prison layoff and the fight being in Serbia, but Medic's speed, front kicks and one-shot power tip it. Would not commit to a single round.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Medić · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Rates Medic's real KO power and finishing instinct over Rodriguez's volume boxing, and sees the lead-side front kick to the body bringing D-Rod's hands down for an uppercut.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Medić · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Leans heavily on Rodriguez's long layoff and reads him as a lesser version of Geoff Neal, whom Medic already knocked out. Expects Medic to rush him immediately in front of a wild Serbian crowd.
“I'm going to go with Uroš Medić to KO D'Rod in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Medić · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Sees a big speed and timing gap in Medic's favour, with Rodriguez at almost 40 charging in with his hands down, and expects Medic to slide out of range and land the left hand early.
“I'm siding with [Uros] Medic by a round one knockout. He's too fast, too explosive right now.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 17 of 24 James Lynch: predicted Medić · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Points to Rodriguez's own account of poor training and playing catch-up after his layoff as the deciding factor, and expects Medic to finish early at home.
“I'll go Medic first round knockout to take out Rodriguez.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 24 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Medić · KO/TKO. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Says Medic starts faster, is more athletic and hits harder, and that Rodriguez has been showing chin vulnerability lately, expecting an early finish rather than a distance fight.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 14 of 24 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Rodriguez · to win. Actual Medić · KO/TKO R1. Result: Miss.
Calls Medic a coin-flip fighter who is a defensive liability and says the price is far too short, so he takes the underdog, expecting Rodriguez to have the edge if the fight escapes the first round.
“I'm going to go with Daniel Rodriguez for this main event being that the line is just way off to me.”
Track record: winner called in 14 of 24 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Chael Sonnen AnalystFighter on the fence Chael Sonnen: made no pick. Didn't call it.
Discussed at length without naming a winner — argued Medic's 100% finish rate is itself an upset risk, then cited fighters who performed well after incarceration, and closed on doubting Rodriguez could step straight into a 25-minute fight. A lean, never a committed pick.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 13-3-0
- Record
- 20-5-0
- 3-1 last 4
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Southpaw
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Serbia
- Nationality
- United States
- Kings MMA
- Team
- The Yard Muay Thai / BMF Ranch / Syndicate MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Medić
Medić has finished all thirteen of his wins, and his last three came in the first round — Geoff Neal, Muslim Salikhov and Gilbert Urbina all folded inside 80 seconds. Fighting at home in Belgrade against an opponent who has been dropped before, he only needs one clean sequence.
Case for Rodriguez
Rodriguez is the more complete boxer, working behind a southpaw jab and a 65% finish rate of his own, and he is comfortable in long fights — 10 of his 25 bouts went to the judges. He out-pointed Kevin Holland and stopped Santiago Ponzinibbio in his last two, and if he survives the opening round the fight tilts toward his volume.
What We Were Watching For
- The first five minutes — Medić has ended three straight fights inside 80 seconds, and Rodriguez has been stopped by strikes once, by Ian Machado Garry in 2023.
- Whether either man can handle five rounds — neither has ever fought past the third, and this is a scheduled five-rounder for both.
- Rodriguez's southpaw jab against Medić's tendency to load up on single power shots.
- The Belgrade crowd — the first UFC card in Serbia, with a Serbian headliner.
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