UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje defeats Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO
Round 4 · 5:00
Topuria vs Gaethje — Lightweight Title · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Gaethje landed the bigger shots in a strong opening round.
Topuria rallied in the second, hurting Gaethje to the body and pursuing a series of submissions on the canvas.
Gaethje then took control with heavy shots; after a doctor checked Topuria before the fourth, Topuria's corner stopped the fight following the round.
- Official UFC resultsUFC · UFC Freedom 250 results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Topuria
Finishing range almost nobody in the division has: seven KOs and eight submissions across 17-0. The boxing that dropped Volkanovski and Holloway carries real power, and a 94% takedown defense plus 48% striking accuracy mean he rarely gives a round away. Younger, fresher, and unbeaten — he sets the terms.
Case for Gaethje
Twenty knockouts and the heaviest low kicks at 155 lb. At 6.48 significant strikes a minute he is the highest-output striker on the whole card. If he can chop the lead leg and force a firefight, his pace and one-shot power are equalisers against anyone. Championship-round experience and a proven engine that doesn't fade late.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Gaethje's calf kicks slow Topuria's pressure before the boxing finds a home?
- Whose chin blinks first — both carry fight-ending power, and Gaethje was knocked out late by Holloway.
- Does Topuria lean on the grappling, or is this a pure striking match in the pocket?
- Five hard rounds at 37 versus an unbeaten 29-year-old — does mileage tell down the stretch?
- Gaethje absorbs 7.05 significant strikes a minute to Topuria's 3.83 — does that volume overwhelm, or does the defensive gap decide it against the cleanest puncher he's faced?
Records & career stats
- 4.82 6.29
- 62% 51%
- 3.97 6.83
- 95% 73%
- 88% 78%
- 17-0-0
- Record
- 27-5-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- Georgia / Spain
- Nationality
- USA
- 29
- Age
- 37
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 10:26
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:38
- Team Topuria
- Team
- Genesis Training Center
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje frames the upset around surviving Topuria’s early body work, leaning on durability and pace, and taking over once the fight reached the later rounds.Gaethje frames the upset around surviving Topuria’s early body work, leaning on durability and pace, and taking over once the fight reached the later rounds.
- Said Topuria’s fresh skill set and body shots were dangerous early.
- Pointed to durability, tenacity and championship-round output as the reason the fight turned.
- Treated the win as a career-defining lightweight title moment rather than making an immediate retirement call.
Demetrious Johnson
Demetrious Johnson says he picked against Gaethje, then watched Gaethje survive the expected danger, punish Topuria’s linear boxing entries and produce one of the year’s best fights.Demetrious Johnson says he picked against Gaethje, then watched Gaethje survive the expected danger, punish Topuria’s linear boxing entries and produce one of the year’s best fights.
- Acknowledged his pre-fight Topuria pick was wrong.
- Contrasted Topuria’s knockout reputation with Gaethje’s resilience under fire.
- Focused on Gaethje’s jab and reads as Topuria walked into range.
Ariel Helwani
Helwani says he was wrong to be confident in Topuria, credits Gaethje for winning fairly, and frames the result as an unbelievable career turn after the Holloway knockout.Helwani says he was wrong to be confident in Topuria, credits Gaethje for winning fairly, and frames the result as an unbelievable career turn after the Holloway knockout.
- Said Gaethje won fair and square after Topuria’s corner called the fight off.
- Noted Topuria had never been compromised like that before.
- Saw the result as an absurd title-picture reset and a major late-career achievement for Gaethje.
Chael Sonnen
Sonnen argues Topuria still showed elite skill, but that layoff, fatigue and endurance concerns became decisive while Gaethje left as the unquestioned champion.Sonnen argues Topuria still showed elite skill, but that layoff, fatigue and endurance concerns became decisive while Gaethje left as the unquestioned champion.
- Focused on Topuria’s year away and preparation rhythm as a pre-fight concern.
- Said Topuria had strong moments and body-shot success before fatigue mattered.
- Concluded there is no argument against Gaethje being the world champion after the result.
Daniel Cormier
Cormier calls Gaethje the story of the night, crediting the setting, Gaethje’s resilience, and his third-round surge after Topuria spent energy chasing the second-round finish.Cormier calls Gaethje the story of the night, crediting the setting, Gaethje’s resilience, and his third-round surge after Topuria spent energy chasing the second-round finish.
- Saw the White House setting as part of what elevated Gaethje’s performance.
- Thought Topuria hurt Gaethje badly but spent too much energy trying to finish on the ground.
- Praised Gaethje’s third round and called the night one of the best he had seen.
Fight Society
Fight Society scores the fight for Gaethje before the stoppage, saying Topuria won only the second round, ate more damage than ever before, and had no clear path to an immediate rematch.Fight Society scores the fight for Gaethje before the stoppage, saying Topuria won only the second round, ate more damage than ever before, and had no clear path to an immediate rematch.
- Had Gaethje up 3-1 after four rounds before the stool stoppage.
- Highlighted Gaethje eating Topuria’s best shots and returning heavier damage.
- Suggested Gaethje’s win reshapes the lightweight title picture while Topuria goes back to the drawing board.
Full Mount MMA
Full Mount MMA rounds up the wider MMA reaction to Gaethje’s upset, emphasizing the corner stoppage, Topuria’s hospital trip, and peers praising Gaethje for taking Topuria somewhere unfamiliar.Full Mount MMA rounds up the wider MMA reaction to Gaethje’s upset, emphasizing the corner stoppage, Topuria’s hospital trip, and peers praising Gaethje for taking Topuria somewhere unfamiliar.
- Frames Gaethje as the new undisputed lightweight champion after a fourth-round corner stoppage.
- Highlights fighter reactions that praised Gaethje’s toughness and Topuria’s corner for protecting him.
- Treats the result as a major community-wide shock rather than a narrow technical note.
Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal says he expected Gaethje to get beaten up, then came away impressed by Gaethje’s fakes, movement, pace changes and ability to damage Topuria from the opening round.Masvidal says he expected Gaethje to get beaten up, then came away impressed by Gaethje’s fakes, movement, pace changes and ability to damage Topuria from the opening round.
- Ranked the fight among the greatest he has watched because of the skill level.
- Credited Gaethje’s fakes, length, pace changes and clinch work.
- Thought Topuria walked forward too directly early and paid for it with jab and eye damage.
Nightcap
Nightcap reacts to Gaethje’s upset as a patriotic, legacy-making win, repeatedly crediting him for surviving Topuria’s danger and leaving with the undisputed title.Nightcap reacts to Gaethje’s upset as a patriotic, legacy-making win, repeatedly crediting him for surviving Topuria’s danger and leaving with the undisputed title.
- Called Gaethje’s win an upset for the undisputed lightweight championship.
- Praised Gaethje for making the United States proud on the White House card.
- Returned to the result later in the episode while recapping the full finish-heavy card.
Submission Radio
Submission Radio treats Gaethje’s win as a feel-good shock, arguing that he finally earned the undisputed belt after years of brutal title paths and that Topuria’s corner stoppage changed his aura.Submission Radio treats Gaethje’s win as a feel-good shock, arguing that he finally earned the undisputed belt after years of brutal title paths and that Topuria’s corner stoppage changed his aura.
- Compared the upset to other major recent UFC shocks.
- Said Gaethje’s path through Khabib and then Topuria made the title win especially meaningful.
- Debated whether Topuria’s corner stoppage damages the aura around him going forward.
The MMA Guru
Their pick: Topuria KO/TKO · R2 · ✗ Miss The MMA Guru reverses his pre-fight Topuria confidence after the upset, scoring Gaethje ahead and arguing that Topuria’s power, pacing and confidence failed once Gaethje survived the second round.The MMA Guru reverses his pre-fight Topuria confidence after the upset, scoring Gaethje ahead and arguing that Topuria’s power, pacing and confidence failed once Gaethje survived the second round.
- Had Gaethje up three rounds to one before the stoppage.
- Highlighted Gaethje’s jab, damage and pace after surviving round two.
- Saw Topuria’s failed finish and visible damage as the fight’s psychological swing.
The W.A.D.E. Concept
Their pick: Topuria KO/TKO · ✗ Miss The W.A.D.E. Concept says almost everyone expected Topuria, then breaks down how Gaethje’s willingness to throw with him, jab damage and survival of round two flipped the fight.The W.A.D.E. Concept says almost everyone expected Topuria, then breaks down how Gaethje’s willingness to throw with him, jab damage and survival of round two flipped the fight.
- Admitted the consensus expectation was that Topuria would win.
- Identified Gaethje’s leg kicks, willingness to trade and early jab damage as crucial.
- Saw Topuria’s failed second-round finish as the point where Gaethje remained present and Topuria began fading.
TheMacLife
TheMacLife’s on-site reaction says Topuria may have overpressed for a statement finish, while Gaethje fought well off the back foot, survived the body-shot danger, and took over as damage accumulated.TheMacLife’s on-site reaction says Topuria may have overpressed for a statement finish, while Gaethje fought well off the back foot, survived the body-shot danger, and took over as damage accumulated.
- Noted Topuria fought aggressively and may have chased the White House moment too hard.
- Praised Gaethje for recovering from body shots and surviving full-mount danger.
- Saw the visible damage and corner stoppage as the natural endpoint after round four.
We Want Picks
Their pick: Topuria KO/TKO · R1 · ✗ Miss We Want Picks calls Gaethje-Topuria an all-time fight, arguing that Topuria had the cleaner early weapons but could not break Gaethje once cardio and adversity mattered.We Want Picks calls Gaethje-Topuria an all-time fight, arguing that Topuria had the cleaner early weapons but could not break Gaethje once cardio and adversity mattered.
- Saw round one as close and round two as Topuria’s clearest success.
- Thought Topuria erred by grappling after hurting Gaethje to the body.
- Framed the result as a battle of wills that favored Gaethje once the pace equalized.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's tendency to get hit, while the source leaves the finish between rounds two and three.
“Either round two or round three, Ilia Topuria TKOs Justin Gaethje.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Sports Betting Dime's Jaren Kawada predicts Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Wade sees Topuria as better everywhere: boxing, striking variety, a far superior grappling and submission game, and a near-indestructible chin. The decisive read is that Gaethje gets hit more than he hits, and the men who finished Gaethje, Topuria also finished.
- Won't go the distance: KO late first round / early second
- Gaethje's only path: throw exactly when Topuria throws, vary off the low kick
- The personal beef has only made Topuria more locked in
“This fight will not go the distance. Ilia will knock him out early.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Herrick treats the main event as massively lopsided for Topuria. His view is that Topuria is better everywhere, still in his prime, and too technically sharp for the version of Gaethje that has been repeatedly hittable and knocked out in recent years.
- Calls it Topuria by anything he wants
- Sees Topuria as the better striker, grappler and wrestler
- Frames Gaethje as too hittable for five rounds against Topuria
“It's Topuria by anything that he wants here.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
He expects Gaethje to fight patient and movement-heavy like the second Poirier fight (calf kicks, lateral movement, clinch ties to extend it), but believes Topuria is too hard to hit cleanly. Topuria may look bad early reading Gaethje, then in round two make a read and land something brutal.
- Expects Gaethje patient and movement-heavy, trying to extend via the clinch
- Topuria's calf kicks a big factor against a boxing-first Gaethje
- May give Gaethje the first round before the finish
“He will find something brutal and KO Justin Gaethje in the second round, badly.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Topuria's cage-cutting and one-punch power are too much. He works into the pocket, rips the body, and lands the overhand on top for a first-round finish.
“So, I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria knocking Justin Gaethje out in the first round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
AJ expects Topuria's sharper close-range boxing, head movement and counters to make Gaethje look too hittable, ending in a violent knockout inside the first 10 minutes.
“I think Taporia is gonna knock him out.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
- Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.
- 'Gaethje has no KO power': went 25 minutes with Pimblett
- Topuria has a grappling threat he won't need
- Says it 'won't even be close'
“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“I'm picking Topuria to win by KO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
MMA JOEY explicitly selects Ilia Topuria in the main-event breakdown.
“I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
- Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
- Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Doesn't buy that Gaethje still has the one-shot power to put Topuria away. Sees Topuria hurt him, start the attack, and finish inside two.
“I think in the second round when Gaethje starts to feel like, okay, now's my time. That's when he's out cold. Ilia Topuria catches him.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists drake burden picking Ilia Topuria.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria, while retaining winner-only fields because the surrounding finish discussion does not establish a single method or round.
“So, I think of course I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria by first-round KO/TKO.
“My pick is Ilya Topuria. My pick is Ilya Topuria via knockout and I'll say comes in round one.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
- Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Topuria is too fast and hits too hard, and beats Gaethje almost anywhere; only a weather-the-storm grind gives Gaethje a chance. He expects a first-round KO.
“Ilia Topuria probably does knock out Justin Gaethje.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
138 MMA picks Topuria despite rooting for Gaethje.
“I do think Topuria wins.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.
- Topuria has the edge everywhere, including grappling if it goes long
- Gaethje's only edge is heavy low kicks vs Topuria's front-leg-heavy stance
- Slight caveat: first fight since Topuria's divorce, could fight emotionally
“I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria by KO in the first round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jake letarski picking Ilia Topuria.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 40 24
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Fight IQ with Von picks Topuria by knockout.
“My pick is Ilia Topuria via KO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“Official prediction, I’m going to go Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Clenbat calls Topuria the proper pick by knockout.
“The proper pick is Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 61.1% 22 14
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Artem MMA predicts Ilia Topuria by knockout and leaves the exact round uncertain.
“I think Topuria is going to knock him out in the second round, maybe the third round, maybe the first round”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
- Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Izzysdegenmind picks Topuria by knockout or TKO.
“Give me Ilia Topuria to win by knockout or TKO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 9 6
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Breaking down his own loss to Topuria, he expects Gaethje to shell up and try to drag the champion into deep water, but reads Topuria as too sharp and too defensively safe, and sees him finish the moment Gaethje opens up, likely inside three rounds.
“I think it's going to be a KO for for Ilia.”
Competitive stake: He's picking Topuria — the fighter who beat him. Weigh the call with that history in mind.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
GypMMA picks Topuria by a second- or third-round knockout.
“Ilia Topuria round two round three KO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
The final Pure Picks recap selects Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout.
“My pick's Ilia Topuria by knockout. I think round one”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by round-one KO.
“So, I'm taking Ilia Topuria by round one KO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Michael Bisping picks Ilia Topuria to win the UFC Freedom 250 main event.
“I've got Ilia Topuria.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 57.6% 19 14
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Levy favors Topuria as the much cleaner boxer and thinks Gaethje's tendency to get hurt makes him ripe for Topuria's combinations. He expects Topuria to knock Gaethje out and retain the lightweight belt.
“I'm gonna pick Ilia Tapora to come out here on the White House lawn, knock out the always exciting Justin Gachi”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jon litterine picking Ilia Topuria.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists joe suntszu picking Ilia Topuria.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists cole shelton picking Ilia Topuria.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's hittable pressure with speed and power for a first-round finish.
“Ilia chins Gagei in the first.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
TankTopMMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout.
“I'm going to pick Ilia by round one KO.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 8 8
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to get a finish in round one, while leaving the method unspecified because the source discusses both knockout and submission routes.
“I think Topuria gets a finish here in round one nonetheless.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 7 7
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to counter Gaethje's aggressive pressure for an early first-round knockout.
“So, I see Topuria getting an early first round knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Uselyis explicitly picks Ilia Topuria by KO without selecting a single round.
“The pick is going to be Ilia Topuria by KO”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists chris olson picking Ilia Topuria.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 44.3% 31 39
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 6 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“on the entire card. My prediction is Ilia Topuria by knockout, and I love the under two and a half rounds prop as well, because I don't see this going the”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Rparqs picks Topuria to finish in round two.
“I'm going to take Ilia Topuria. I'm going to take him out round two knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
HorseBeef MMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout.
“Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria; the transcript contains contradictory round wording, so no method or round is inferred.
“the main event, Ilia Topuri against Justin Gi. Third round first round knockout for Ilia Tupurya.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Dan Tom sees Topuria as the sharper, more disciplined strategist and thinks Gaethje's decline from the Pimblett fight matters. His closing call is Topuria, while separately floating submission as a possible way the upset-resistant matchup could still look different from the knockout consensus.
“I'm picking Tapora.”
* Roundtable source with multiple analysts; this row uses Dan Tom's own closing pick segment. The transcript renders some names phonetically (Tapora/Gatei), but the bout context and introduced speaker identify the mapping.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
FunkyBunch MMA explicitly predicts Ilia Topuria to knock out Justin Gaethje.
“I think that Ilia Topuria is definitely going to knock out Justin Gaethje here”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by third-round knockout.
“With all that being said, like I said, Ilia Topuria round three KO is my prediction.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Thomas says it's hard for him to see Gaethje winning on Sunday and still expects Topuria to get the better of him the majority of the time. His read is that Topuria's cleaner skill set carries over even in a dangerous, chaos-friendly matchup.
“I still have to say that the majority of the times if they were to fight, if they were to train that Ilia would get the better of him”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Sanko agrees that Gaethje will have moments, but expects Topuria to rise to the occasion and take over with speed. Her framing is that the fight gets competitive in patches before Topuria's pace and precision separate him.
“I think Ilia rises to the occasion even more and gets the better of him.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout; the transcript gives a first-or-second-round range, so no single round is inferred.
“Tapora will knock out Justin Gai probably in the first or second round.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Calls Gaethje a legend but a step slow now. Sees a new generation taking over and backs Topuria as the man for the lightweight era.
“now I think it's the Topuria time for lightweight.”
* A short interview soundbite on a third-party clip channel, not a dedicated breakdown — he names a winner but commits to no method or round.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Analyst picks: UFC GamblingAddicts Miss; Jaren Kawada Miss; The W.A.D.E. Concept Miss; Travis Herrick MMA Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; AJ Devito Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; Kasper MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; Drake Burden Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; James Blissett Miss; MMA Husky Hustler Miss; We Want Picks Miss; 138 MMA Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Jake Letarski Miss; Fight IQ with Von Miss; BetSam Miss; Clenbat Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Izzysdegenmind Miss; Alexander Volkanovski Miss; GypMMA Miss; Pure Picks Miss; Aniki MMA Miss; Michael Bisping Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Joe SunTszu Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; TankTopMMA Miss; Hayjive Picks Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris Olson Miss; Moneyball MMA Miss; Rparqs Miss; HorseBeef MMA Miss; Lightning MMA Miss; Dan Tom Miss; FunkyBunch MMA Miss; Blind Bear MMA Miss; Din Thomas Miss; Laura Sanko Miss; Mark Berry TMA Miss; Islam Makhachev Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chael Sonnen
Chael Sonnen
Current pick evidenceNo pick has been recorded. Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Won't call it — argues you're either overrating Topuria or underrating Gaethje, and admits he doesn't know which. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| No pick | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | No pick | Not called | Not called | |
| Won't call it — argues you're either overrating Topuria or underrating Gaethje, and admits he doesn't know which. | ||||||
UFC GamblingAddicts
UFC GamblingAddicts
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's tendency to get hit, while the source leaves the finish between rounds two and three. “Either round two or round three, Ilia Topuria TKOs Justin Gaethje.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's tendency to get hit, while the source leaves the finish between rounds two and three. “Either round two or round three, Ilia Topuria TKOs Justin Gaethje.” Track record: winner called in 19 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jaren Kawada
Jaren Kawada
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Sports Betting Dime's Jaren Kawada predicts Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Sports Betting Dime's Jaren Kawada predicts Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO. Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The W.A.D.E. Concept
The W.A.D.E. Concept
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Wade sees Topuria as better everywhere: boxing, striking variety, a far superior grappling and submission game, and a near-indestructible chin. The decisive read is that Gaethje gets hit more than he hits, and the men who finished Gaethje, Topuria also finished.
“This fight will not go the distance. Ilia will knock him out early.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Wade sees Topuria as better everywhere: boxing, striking variety, a far superior grappling and submission game, and a near-indestructible chin. The decisive read is that Gaethje gets hit more than he hits, and the men who finished Gaethje, Topuria also finished.
“This fight will not go the distance. Ilia will knock him out early.” Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Travis Herrick MMA
Travis Herrick MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Herrick treats the main event as massively lopsided for Topuria. His view is that Topuria is better everywhere, still in his prime, and too technically sharp for the version of Gaethje that has been repeatedly hittable and knocked out in recent years.
“It's Topuria by anything that he wants here.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Herrick treats the main event as massively lopsided for Topuria. His view is that Topuria is better everywhere, still in his prime, and too technically sharp for the version of Gaethje that has been repeatedly hittable and knocked out in recent years.
“It's Topuria by anything that he wants here.” Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO He expects Gaethje to fight patient and movement-heavy like the second Poirier fight (calf kicks, lateral movement, clinch ties to extend it), but believes Topuria is too hard to hit cleanly. Topuria may look bad early reading Gaethje, then in round two make a read and land something brutal.
“He will find something brutal and KO Justin Gaethje in the second round, badly.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R2 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| He expects Gaethje to fight patient and movement-heavy like the second Poirier fight (calf kicks, lateral movement, clinch ties to extend it), but believes Topuria is too hard to hit cleanly. Topuria may look bad early reading Gaethje, then in round two make a read and land something brutal.
“He will find something brutal and KO Justin Gaethje in the second round, badly.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasle
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Topuria's cage-cutting and one-punch power are too much. He works into the pocket, rips the body, and lands the overhand on top for a first-round finish. “So, I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria knocking Justin Gaethje out in the first round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Topuria's cage-cutting and one-punch power are too much. He works into the pocket, rips the body, and lands the overhand on top for a first-round finish. “So, I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria knocking Justin Gaethje out in the first round.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
AJ Devito
AJ Devito
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO AJ expects Topuria's sharper close-range boxing, head movement and counters to make Gaethje look too hittable, ending in a violent knockout inside the first 10 minutes. “I think Taporia is gonna knock him out.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| AJ expects Topuria's sharper close-range boxing, head movement and counters to make Gaethje look too hittable, ending in a violent knockout inside the first 10 minutes. “I think Taporia is gonna knock him out.” Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Lucas Tracy
Lucas Tracy
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.
“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.” * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.
“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.” * An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week. Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Kasper MMA
Kasper MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “I'm picking Topuria to win by KO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “I'm picking Topuria to win by KO.” Track record: winner called in 12 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO MMA JOEY explicitly selects Ilia Topuria in the main-event breakdown. “I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA JOEY explicitly selects Ilia Topuria in the main-event breakdown. “I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.” Track record: winner called in 71 of 107 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Doesn't buy that Gaethje still has the one-shot power to put Topuria away. Sees Topuria hurt him, start the attack, and finish inside two. “I think in the second round when Gaethje starts to feel like, okay, now's my time. That's when he's out cold. Ilia Topuria catches him.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R2 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Doesn't buy that Gaethje still has the one-shot power to put Topuria away. Sees Topuria hurt him, start the attack, and finish inside two. “I think in the second round when Gaethje starts to feel like, okay, now's my time. That's when he's out cold. Ilia Topuria catches him.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Drake Burden
Drake Burden
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists drake burden picking Ilia Topuria. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists drake burden picking Ilia Topuria. Track record: winner called in 56 of 85 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Topuria, while retaining winner-only fields because the surrounding finish discussion does not establish a single method or round. “So, I think of course I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Topuria, while retaining winner-only fields because the surrounding finish discussion does not establish a single method or round. “So, I think of course I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
James Blissett
James Blissett
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria by first-round KO/TKO. “My pick is Ilya Topuria. My pick is Ilya Topuria via knockout and I'll say comes in round one.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria by first-round KO/TKO. “My pick is Ilya Topuria. My pick is Ilya Topuria via knockout and I'll say comes in round one.” Track record: winner called in 35 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Husky Hustler
MMA Husky Hustler
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout.” Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Topuria is too fast and hits too hard, and beats Gaethje almost anywhere; only a weather-the-storm grind gives Gaethje a chance. He expects a first-round KO. “Ilia Topuria probably does knock out Justin Gaethje.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Topuria is too fast and hits too hard, and beats Gaethje almost anywhere; only a weather-the-storm grind gives Gaethje a chance. He expects a first-round KO. “Ilia Topuria probably does knock out Justin Gaethje.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
138 MMA
138 MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO 138 MMA picks Topuria despite rooting for Gaethje. “I do think Topuria wins.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| 138 MMA picks Topuria despite rooting for Gaethje. “I do think Topuria wins.” Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HopperMMA
HopperMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.
“I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria by KO in the first round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.
“I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria by KO in the first round.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 121 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jake Letarski
Jake Letarski
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jake letarski picking Ilia Topuria. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jake letarski picking Ilia Topuria. Track record: winner called in 40 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Fight IQ with Von
Fight IQ with Von
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Fight IQ with Von picks Topuria by knockout. “My pick is Ilia Topuria via KO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Fight IQ with Von picks Topuria by knockout. “My pick is Ilia Topuria via KO.” Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
BetSam
BetSam
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “Official prediction, I’m going to go Ilia Topuria by knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “Official prediction, I’m going to go Ilia Topuria by knockout.” Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Clenbat
Clenbat
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Clenbat calls Topuria the proper pick by knockout. “The proper pick is Ilia Topuria by knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Clenbat calls Topuria the proper pick by knockout. “The proper pick is Ilia Topuria by knockout.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Artem MMA
Artem MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Artem MMA predicts Ilia Topuria by knockout and leaves the exact round uncertain. “I think Topuria is going to knock him out in the second round, maybe the third round, maybe the first round” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Artem MMA predicts Ilia Topuria by knockout and leaves the exact round uncertain. “I think Topuria is going to knock him out in the second round, maybe the third round, maybe the first round” Track record: winner called in 43 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Izzysdegenmind
Izzysdegenmind
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Izzysdegenmind picks Topuria by knockout or TKO. “Give me Ilia Topuria to win by knockout or TKO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Izzysdegenmind picks Topuria by knockout or TKO. “Give me Ilia Topuria to win by knockout or TKO.” Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Breaking down his own loss to Topuria, he expects Gaethje to shell up and try to drag the champion into deep water, but reads Topuria as too sharp and too defensively safe, and sees him finish the moment Gaethje opens up, likely inside three rounds. “I think it's going to be a KO for for Ilia.” Competitive stake: He's picking Topuria — the fighter who beat him. Weigh the call with that history in mind. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Breaking down his own loss to Topuria, he expects Gaethje to shell up and try to drag the champion into deep water, but reads Topuria as too sharp and too defensively safe, and sees him finish the moment Gaethje opens up, likely inside three rounds. “I think it's going to be a KO for for Ilia.” Competitive stake: He's picking Topuria — the fighter who beat him. Weigh the call with that history in mind. Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
GypMMA
GypMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO GypMMA picks Topuria by a second- or third-round knockout. “Ilia Topuria round two round three KO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| GypMMA picks Topuria by a second- or third-round knockout. “Ilia Topuria round two round three KO.” Track record: winner called in 10 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Pure Picks
Pure Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO The final Pure Picks recap selects Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout. “My pick's Ilia Topuria by knockout. I think round one” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| The final Pure Picks recap selects Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout. “My pick's Ilia Topuria by knockout. I think round one” Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Aniki MMA
Aniki MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by round-one KO. “So, I'm taking Ilia Topuria by round one KO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by round-one KO. “So, I'm taking Ilia Topuria by round one KO.” Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Bisping
Michael Bisping
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Michael Bisping picks Ilia Topuria to win the UFC Freedom 250 main event. “I've got Ilia Topuria.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Michael Bisping picks Ilia Topuria to win the UFC Freedom 250 main event. “I've got Ilia Topuria.” Track record: winner called in 19 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Levy favors Topuria as the much cleaner boxer and thinks Gaethje's tendency to get hurt makes him ripe for Topuria's combinations. He expects Topuria to knock Gaethje out and retain the lightweight belt. “I'm gonna pick Ilia Tapora to come out here on the White House lawn, knock out the always exciting Justin Gachi” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Levy favors Topuria as the much cleaner boxer and thinks Gaethje's tendency to get hurt makes him ripe for Topuria's combinations. He expects Topuria to knock Gaethje out and retain the lightweight belt. “I'm gonna pick Ilia Tapora to come out here on the White House lawn, knock out the always exciting Justin Gachi” Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jon litterine picking Ilia Topuria. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jon litterine picking Ilia Topuria. Track record: winner called in 54 of 97 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Joe SunTszu
Joe SunTszu
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists joe suntszu picking Ilia Topuria. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists joe suntszu picking Ilia Topuria. Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists cole shelton picking Ilia Topuria. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists cole shelton picking Ilia Topuria. Track record: winner called in 52 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Greedo Plays MMA
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's hittable pressure with speed and power for a first-round finish. “Ilia chins Gagei in the first.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's hittable pressure with speed and power for a first-round finish. “Ilia chins Gagei in the first.” Track record: winner called in 24 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TankTopMMA
TankTopMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO TankTopMMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout. “I'm going to pick Ilia by round one KO.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| TankTopMMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout. “I'm going to pick Ilia by round one KO.” Track record: winner called in 8 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Hayjive Picks
Hayjive Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Topuria to get a finish in round one, while leaving the method unspecified because the source discusses both knockout and submission routes. “I think Topuria gets a finish here in round one nonetheless.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Topuria to get a finish in round one, while leaving the method unspecified because the source discusses both knockout and submission routes. “I think Topuria gets a finish here in round one nonetheless.” Track record: winner called in 7 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Yuda
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Topuria to counter Gaethje's aggressive pressure for an early first-round knockout. “So, I see Topuria getting an early first round knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Topuria to counter Gaethje's aggressive pressure for an early first-round knockout. “So, I see Topuria getting an early first round knockout.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Uselyis
Uselyis
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Uselyis explicitly picks Ilia Topuria by KO without selecting a single round. “The pick is going to be Ilia Topuria by KO” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Uselyis explicitly picks Ilia Topuria by KO without selecting a single round. “The pick is going to be Ilia Topuria by KO” Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Olson
Chris Olson
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists chris olson picking Ilia Topuria. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists chris olson picking Ilia Topuria. Track record: winner called in 31 of 70 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Moneyball MMA
Moneyball MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “on the entire card. My prediction is Ilia Topuria by knockout, and I love the under two and a half rounds prop as well, because I don't see this going the” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “on the entire card. My prediction is Ilia Topuria by knockout, and I love the under two and a half rounds prop as well, because I don't see this going the” Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Rparqs
Rparqs
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Rparqs picks Topuria to finish in round two. “I'm going to take Ilia Topuria. I'm going to take him out round two knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R2 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Rparqs picks Topuria to finish in round two. “I'm going to take Ilia Topuria. I'm going to take him out round two knockout.” Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HorseBeef MMA
HorseBeef MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO HorseBeef MMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout. “Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| HorseBeef MMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout. “Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout.” Track record: winner called in 5 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Lightning MMA
Lightning MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria; the transcript contains contradictory round wording, so no method or round is inferred. “the main event, Ilia Topuri against Justin Gi. Third round first round knockout for Ilia Tupurya.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria; the transcript contains contradictory round wording, so no method or round is inferred. “the main event, Ilia Topuri against Justin Gi. Third round first round knockout for Ilia Tupurya.” Track record: winner called in 5 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Dan Tom
Dan Tom
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Dan Tom sees Topuria as the sharper, more disciplined strategist and thinks Gaethje's decline from the Pimblett fight matters. His closing call is Topuria, while separately floating submission as a possible way the upset-resistant matchup could still look different from the knockout consensus. “I'm picking Tapora.” * Roundtable source with multiple analysts; this row uses Dan Tom's own closing pick segment. The transcript renders some names phonetically (Tapora/Gatei), but the bout context and introduced speaker identify the mapping. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Dan Tom sees Topuria as the sharper, more disciplined strategist and thinks Gaethje's decline from the Pimblett fight matters. His closing call is Topuria, while separately floating submission as a possible way the upset-resistant matchup could still look different from the knockout consensus. “I'm picking Tapora.” * Roundtable source with multiple analysts; this row uses Dan Tom's own closing pick segment. The transcript renders some names phonetically (Tapora/Gatei), but the bout context and introduced speaker identify the mapping. Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
FunkyBunch MMA
FunkyBunch MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO FunkyBunch MMA explicitly predicts Ilia Topuria to knock out Justin Gaethje. “I think that Ilia Topuria is definitely going to knock out Justin Gaethje here” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| FunkyBunch MMA explicitly predicts Ilia Topuria to knock out Justin Gaethje. “I think that Ilia Topuria is definitely going to knock out Justin Gaethje here” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
Blind Bear MMA
Blind Bear MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 3 Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by third-round knockout. “With all that being said, like I said, Ilia Topuria round three KO is my prediction.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R3 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by third-round knockout. “With all that being said, like I said, Ilia Topuria round three KO is my prediction.” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
Din Thomas
Din Thomas
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Thomas says it's hard for him to see Gaethje winning on Sunday and still expects Topuria to get the better of him the majority of the time. His read is that Topuria's cleaner skill set carries over even in a dangerous, chaos-friendly matchup. “I still have to say that the majority of the times if they were to fight, if they were to train that Ilia would get the better of him” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Thomas says it's hard for him to see Gaethje winning on Sunday and still expects Topuria to get the better of him the majority of the time. His read is that Topuria's cleaner skill set carries over even in a dangerous, chaos-friendly matchup. “I still have to say that the majority of the times if they were to fight, if they were to train that Ilia would get the better of him” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
Laura Sanko
Laura Sanko
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Sanko agrees that Gaethje will have moments, but expects Topuria to rise to the occasion and take over with speed. Her framing is that the fight gets competitive in patches before Topuria's pace and precision separate him. “I think Ilia rises to the occasion even more and gets the better of him.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Sanko agrees that Gaethje will have moments, but expects Topuria to rise to the occasion and take over with speed. Her framing is that the fight gets competitive in patches before Topuria's pace and precision separate him. “I think Ilia rises to the occasion even more and gets the better of him.” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
Mark Berry TMA
Mark Berry TMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout; the transcript gives a first-or-second-round range, so no single round is inferred. “Tapora will knock out Justin Gai probably in the first or second round.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout; the transcript gives a first-or-second-round range, so no single round is inferred. “Tapora will knock out Justin Gai probably in the first or second round.” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
Islam Makhachev
Islam Makhachev
Current pick evidencePicked: Ilia Topuria Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO Calls Gaethje a legend but a step slow now. Sees a new generation taking over and backs Topuria as the man for the lightweight era. “now I think it's the Topuria time for lightweight.” * A short interview soundbite on a third-party clip channel, not a dedicated breakdown — he names a winner but commits to no method or round. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Gaethje a legend but a step slow now. Sees a new generation taking over and backs Topuria as the man for the lightweight era. “now I think it's the Topuria time for lightweight.” * A short interview soundbite on a third-party clip channel, not a dedicated breakdown — he names a winner but commits to no method or round. Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
Only 0 of 50 called the upset.
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