Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Regina Tarin defeats JJ Aldrich by unanimous decision

Loss JJ Aldrich 15-8-0
Win Regina Tarin 9-0-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Aldrich vs Tarin — Women's Flyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The official UFC result confirms the winner and result.

The bout was recorded across the full official result entry.

Narrative detail remains limited to the verified result and method.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Aldrich

Aldrich brings established UFC experience and should benefit if she can make the bout technically layered. Her route is to use clean entries and disciplined positioning to prevent Tarin from building confidence in open exchanges.

Case for Tarin

Tarin's opportunity is to make the fight unpredictable early and test Aldrich's reactions with initiative rather than waiting for a veteran-led rhythm. If she can keep the exchanges fresh, she can create the upset conditions this matchup offers.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Aldrich can impose veteran pace and positioning.
  • How Tarin handles the first sustained exchange.
  • Which fighter wins the transitions between striking and grappling.
  • Whether the bout becomes more competitive as Tarin settles in.
Records & career stats
Aldrich vs Tarin
Aldrich Tarin
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.93 6.37
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 62% 58%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.39 5.60
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 68% 83%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 20% 67%
15-7-0
Record
8-0-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Mexico
33
Age
21
1.65 m
Height — Tarin leads
1.70 m
171 cm
Reach — Aldrich leads
168 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
20%
Finish rateFinish % — Tarin leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
67%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Tarin leads
4
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Tarin leads
2
3.93
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Tarin leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.37
4.39
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Aldrich leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.60
62%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Aldrich leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
68%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Tarin leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
83%
13:55
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Flyweight (moving up)
Weight classWeight
Women's Flyweight
Tiger Beetle Martial Arts
Team
UFC Performance Institute Mexico City

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 7:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks JJ Aldrich by split decision.

“I'm going to pick JJ Aldrich to win this fight via split decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 38:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks JJ Aldrich by Decision.

“Give me JJ Aldrich to win this controversial split decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 0:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision; the quick-picks captions render her as Irena Tadyan.

“which will lead to Tadyan winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 0:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision; the caption renders the surname as Terran.

“Give me Terran by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 3:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin; the speaker gives decision as most likely but retains TKO as an alternative.

“picking her to win this one most likely by decision win or could even see a TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 0:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“Honestly, I'm gonna go with Tarin to win this one by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 5:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin winning by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 3:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'm going to pick Tarin to get it done. I'll say 29-28 decision win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 3:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin getting this one done by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 4:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'll take her to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 33:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin to win.

“I'm going to pick Regina here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 1:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'm going to go Regina Tarin by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 0:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision; the quick-picks captions render her as Irena Tadyan.

“which will lead to Tadyan winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Jimbo Ortega MMA29 resolved calls
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 0:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision; the caption renders the surname as Terran.

“Give me Terran by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 3:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin; the speaker gives decision as most likely but retains TKO as an alternative.

“picking her to win this one most likely by decision win or could even see a TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · to winTarin · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 0:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“Honestly, I'm gonna go with Tarin to win this one by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 5:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin winning by a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 3:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'm going to pick Tarin to get it done. I'll say 29-28 decision win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 3:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin getting this one done by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 4:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'll take her to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 33:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin to win.

“I'm going to pick Regina here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · to winTarin · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 1:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'm going to go Regina Tarin by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · DecTarin · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 7:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks JJ Aldrich by split decision.

“I'm going to pick JJ Aldrich to win this fight via split decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. Aldrich · DecTarin · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 38:40

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks JJ Aldrich by Decision.

“Give me JJ Aldrich to win this controversial split decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 28.5%. Aldrich · DecTarin · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

10 of 12 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Tarin · Decision · R3

Closest probability Gemini put 68% on Tarin.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
52% Aldrich
48% Tarin
PickAldrich · DecisionActualTarin · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
35% Aldrich
65% Tarin
PickTarin · KO/TKO · R2ActualTarin · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
32% Aldrich
68% Tarin
PickTarin · DecisionActualTarin · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

2 of 3 models pick Tarin

ChatGPT picks Aldrich; Claude and Gemini pick Tarin.

Method mix differs most for Decision: 49% (Claude) to 80% (Gemini), a 31-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Aldrich by decision

    Win probability: Aldrich 52%, Tarin 48%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Low confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Tarin by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Aldrich 35%, Tarin 65%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Tarin by decision

    Win probability: Aldrich 32%, Tarin 68%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail5 areas differ

The models differ on winner, finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 2—
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 2—

ChatGPT

Pick

Aldrich by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Aldrich 52%, Tarin 48%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: Aldrich 7%, Tarin 11%
Submission, 7% overall: Aldrich 2%, Tarin 5%
Decision, 75% overall: Aldrich 43%, Tarin 32%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Tarin by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Aldrich 35%, Tarin 65%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 38% overall: Aldrich 8%, Tarin 30%
Submission, 13% overall: Aldrich 3%, Tarin 10%
Decision, 49% overall: Aldrich 24%, Tarin 25%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Tarin by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Aldrich 32%, Tarin 68%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 14% overall: Aldrich 3%, Tarin 11%
Submission, 6% overall: Aldrich 2%, Tarin 4%
Decision, 80% overall: Aldrich 27%, Tarin 53%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.