Ty Miller defeats Billy Ray Goff by KO/TKO
Miller vs Goff — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Miller defended Goff's early attempts to clinch and grapple.
He seized momentum late in the first and punished Goff throughout the second round.
The stoppage came 15 seconds into round three after Miller opened with a finishing combination.
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Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA perfect call; HopperoMMA called it; The MMA Guru called it; We Want Picks called it; Half The Battle called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; Michael Chiesa called it; AJ perfect call; KennyOkoyeMMA called it; JakeGerberMMA called it; MMAPREDICTIONGURU called it; TheWeasle perfect call.
12 of 12 nailed it · 3 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Miller · KO/TKO. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Perfect call.
Takes Miller by knockout but hedges between a late first and a second round, so no round is recorded.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Miller · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Backs Miller to get the knockout inside the opening round.
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Miller · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Calls a second-round stoppage for Miller.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Miller · to win. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Picks Miller on how hard he hits and the size advantage, without committing to a method.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Miller · to win. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Sees Miller's technique as clearly superior here.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Miller · Decision. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Takes Miller but expects it to go to the scorecards rather than a finish.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Miller · to win. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Goes with Miller without naming a method.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Miller · KO/TKO. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Perfect call.
Makes Miller by knockout the official pick and explicitly leaves the round open.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Miller · to win. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Picks Miller for the win with no method given.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Miller · Decision. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Leans to a 30-27 decision, describing a striking master class for Miller.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Miller · to win. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Hit.
Takes Miller without a method.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 34 of 48 TheWeasle: predicted Miller · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Miller · KO/TKO R3. Result: Perfect call.
Expects Miller to drop Goff with the right hand and finish him in the third.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 48 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 7-0-0
- Record
- 9-4-0
- 4-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Switch
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- United States
- Nationality
- United States
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Miller
Miller is 7-0 and has not lost as a professional, with three of those wins by knockout. At 74 inches tall with a 77.5-inch reach he holds four inches of height and five inches of reach over Goff, a large edge in a division where range usually decides who dictates the terms.
Case for Goff
Goff is 9-4 and carries the heavier finishing record into this one: seven of his nine wins came by knockout. He is 3-2 across his last five, and his most recent defeat came by guillotine choke against Ramiz Brahimaj — both the risk he has to manage and the reminder that this fight can end in a scramble rather than at range.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Goff can close a five-inch reach deficit without giving up the counter.
- Whether Miller's unbeaten record has prepared him for the first time he is behind.
- Goff's neck in a scramble: his most recent loss came by guillotine choke.
- How the four-inch height difference shapes who decides where the fight happens.
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