Robert Valentin defeats Duško Todorović by Submission
Todorović vs Valentin — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The first round was a series of scrambles, and Valentin repeatedly found the dominant position. Todorovic tried to reverse position.
Todorovic left his neck exposed while attempting the reversal. Valentin locked up a high-elbow guillotine.
Todorovic tapped immediately at 4:14 of round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade main card results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks called it; The MMA Guru called it; Michael Chiesa called it; Half The Battle called it; AJ called it; Bedtime MMA perfect call; HopperoMMA perfect call; JakeGerberMMA called it; James Lynch called it; DFS By The Numbers missed; MMAPREDICTIONGURU missed; Bookie Beatdown missed; KennyOkoyeMMA missed.
9 of 13 nailed it · 2 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Valentin · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Calls Valentin the more durable man and expects his forward pressure, grinding and takedown mixing to get him on top — while saying he could not bet the fight either way.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Valentin · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Says Todorovic is repeatedly KO-able, especially to elbows in tight and on clinch breaks with his chin up, and that Valentin is the nastier finisher with an early submission edge.
“I'm going to go with Robert Valentin getting this one done by first round finish.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Valentin · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Thinks Todorovic's habit of repeating the same jab while pressing makes him predictable and walks him into a counter, and that Valentin has the power and the fundamentals to punish it.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Valentin · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Says Todorovic is trending downward after knee injuries and is phoning in his camps, while Valentin is now training with elite guys in Vegas and can find an opening off a Todorovic mistake.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Valentin · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Started leaning Todorovic then flipped live on air, citing Valentin's speed, kicks, elbows and jiu-jitsu edge and his low opinion of Todorovic.
“We're going Robert Valentine. My confidence as I talked about it with you guys here is actually growing on Valentine.”
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Valentin · Sub. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Perfect call.
Calls Valentin the more dynamic and dangerous fighter and expects him to hurt Todorovic with a combination and then find a guillotine off a panic shot or take the back.
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Valentin · Sub · R1. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Perfect call.
Sees Todorovic as very beatable with never-great grappling, and expects the newly locked-in Valentin to skip the striking war, shoot a takedown and hunt a finish on the mat.
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Valentin · Decision. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Rates Valentin the more durable and dangerous striker with jiu-jitsu good enough to neutralise Todorovic's wrestling, and questions Todorovic's chin.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 17 of 24 James Lynch: predicted Valentin · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Unimpressed by both men, noting Todorovic's four knockout losses and thin recent opposition, and picks Valentin without conviction.
“I'll take Valentine by knockout in the second round, but not super confident here.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 24 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Todorović · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Takes the underdog: says Valentin has poor striking defence, roughly 50% takedown defence and looks bad off his back, while Todorovic is the more skilled fighter whose only real flaw is his chin.
“Give me Dusko Todorovic to win this fight by second round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Todorović · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Dismisses both records but gives Todorovic the wrestling edge, thinks he can nullify Valentin on the ground and win the cardio battle, with his takedown threat opening up the striking.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 14 of 24 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Todorović · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Treats it as a 50/50 fight where Valentin is KO-or-bust with almost no volume, so he takes the home fighter on the grappling edge and the plus-money price.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 24 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Todorović · to win. Actual Valentin · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Frames it as a battle of two limited fighters and says Todorovic is the less bad one — he hits harder, kicks better and lets his hands go more, and Valentin loses his usual reach edge here.
“So, I'm going Dusko Todorovic to get it done. The Serbian gets it done in Serbia.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 4.73 1.30
- 48% 33%
- 4.40 2.72
- 43% 55%
- 92% 91%
- 13-6-0
- Record
- 11-6-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 07:41
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 06:20
- Serbia
- Nationality
- Switzerland
- Thunder Top Team
- Team
- Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Todorović
Todorović fights at home in Belgrade and finishes 92% of his wins, most recently choking out Jose Medina in round one. He is the busier striker at 4.73 strikes a minute, which matters against a man whose striking defence sits at 33%.
Case for Valentin
Valentin is the more dangerous submission threat by a wide margin — a 1.78 submission average against Todorović's 0.35 — and he choked out Julien Leblanc inside one round in April. He does not need long stretches of offence; one scramble is enough.
What We Were Watching For
- Ground position — Valentin averages 1.78 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.
- Todorović's output against a 33% striking defence.
- Whether this reaches round two at all; both men finish over 90% of their wins.
- The home crowd behind Todorović on the first UFC card in Serbia.
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