UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld  8 Aug 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Steven Asplund defeats Guilherme Pat by unanimous decision

Win Steven Asplund 8-2-0
Loss Guilherme Pat 6-2-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Asplund vs Pat — Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Asplund dropped Pat late in the first round and worked from top position.

Pat rallied in the second with a jab and left hook that dropped Asplund.

Asplund answered with a high kick and stronger pressure over the final five minutes.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Asplund

Asplund is one of the highest-volume strikers in the division right now: 10.05 significant strikes landed per minute at 52% accuracy across his UFC and Contender Series fights, with six of his seven career wins by knockout. He needed 16 seconds to finish Anthony Guarascio on the Contender Series to earn his contract, opened his UFC run with a second-round TKO of Sean Sharaf, then dropped a decision to Vitor Petrino in March. That workrate is the exact problem Pat has not yet had to answer inside the Octagon.

Case for Pat

Pat is 6-1 with four of his six wins by knockout, but his UFC output looks nothing like Asplund's: 2.70 significant strikes landed per minute at 62% accuracy, built on picking shots rather than trading volume. He opened his UFC run with a unanimous-decision win over Allen Frye Jr., then lost a majority decision to Thomas Petersen in his next outing. If he can make Asplund's aggression cost something early, the accuracy gap favours him; if the pace holds for three rounds, he has not yet shown he can match that output.

What We Were Watching For

  • Asplund lands 10.05 significant strikes per minute to Pat's 2.70 — whether that pace holds for three rounds is the central question.
  • Pat's 62% striking accuracy against Asplund's 52%: picking shots against sheer volume.
  • Neither man has landed a takedown in his tracked UFC or Contender Series fights, so this is very likely to stay a standup fight.
  • Asplund has finished six of his seven wins; whether Pat's more conservative output denies him the finish and drags it to the scorecards.
Records & career stats
Asplund vs Pat
Asplund Pat
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 7.88 2.80
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 48% 46%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 5.25 2.82
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 100% 100%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 86% 67%
7-2-0
Record
6-1-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
Brazil
28
Age
32
1.96 m
Height — Pat leads
1.98 m
198 cm
Reach — Pat leads
206 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
86%
Finish rateFinish % — Asplund leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
67%
6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Asplund leads
4
0
Wins by submissionSub wins
0
7.88
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Asplund leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.80
5.25
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Pat leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.82
48%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
100%
09:46
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Minnesota Top Team
Team
Lotus MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by a third-round standing TKO.

“know, blobbing and uh just finding a TKO. I'm going to go with Steven Aspen, bro. All right, man. Next fight of the night. Speaking of jiggling at range, we”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 5:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund without naming a method.

“I definitely like Steven Asplin as well.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 14:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by TKO, while allowing for the finish in the second or third round.

“I'm going to go with Steven Asplund getting this one done by TKO. I think he'll eventually finish Guilherme Pat in the third round, maybe the second round by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 8:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Calls Asplund by knockout the lock of the card.

“I think Asplund wins probably by KO as well.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 22:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by second-round knockout.

“Give me Steven Asplin to win this fight by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 36:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · Dec

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund on the scorecards.

“But as a prediction, I'm going to go Steven Aspen via Decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Marcel Dorff
Hear it — 13:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by first-round TKO.

“Yeah, man. Steven Aspen's for me as well. first round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Adam Martin
Hear it — 13:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by second-round knockout.

“Easy pick, Steven Asplin. Knocks him out. Easy pick. Overwhelms him with punches in the second round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 20:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund, hedging between a stoppage and a decision.

“I'm going to pick Steven Aspinal. He'll either get a TKO or win a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 13:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Guilherme Pat · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Expects Pat to pick Asplund apart for a second-round TKO.

“But if he doesn't, then Pat is going to pick him apart for a second round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 14:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Guilherme Pat · Dec

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Pat in a close decision.

“me. Yeah, Stephen Aspel when he misses, he misses big. I think Gary Pat wins a close decision. I know you hate it. I don't give a [ __ ] That's all right.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Marcel Dorff Hit; Adam Martin Hit; Mike Finch Miss; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by a third-round standing TKO.

“know, blobbing and uh just finding a TKO. I'm going to go with Steven Aspen, bro. All right, man. Next fight of the night. Speaking of jiggling at range, we”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R3Asplund · Dec R3HitMissMiss
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 13:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Guilherme Pat · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Expects Pat to pick Asplund apart for a second-round TKO.

“But if he doesn't, then Pat is going to pick him apart for a second round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · KO/TKO · R2Asplund · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 5:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund without naming a method.

“I definitely like Steven Asplin as well.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to winAsplund · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 14:07

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by TKO, while allowing for the finish in the second or third round.

“I'm going to go with Steven Asplund getting this one done by TKO. I think he'll eventually finish Guilherme Pat in the third round, maybe the second round by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKOAsplund · Dec R3HitMissNot called
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 8:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Calls Asplund by knockout the lock of the card.

“I think Asplund wins probably by KO as well.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKOAsplund · Dec R3HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 22:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by second-round knockout.

“Give me Steven Asplin to win this fight by second round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2Asplund · Dec R3HitMissMiss
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 36:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · Dec

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund on the scorecards.

“But as a prediction, I'm going to go Steven Aspen via Decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · DecAsplund · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Marcel Dorff29 resolved calls
Marcel Dorff
Hear it — 13:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by first-round TKO.

“Yeah, man. Steven Aspen's for me as well. first round TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R1Asplund · Dec R3HitMissMiss
Adam Martin40 resolved calls
Adam Martin
Hear it — 13:18

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund by second-round knockout.

“Easy pick, Steven Asplin. Knocks him out. Easy pick. Overwhelms him with punches in the second round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2Asplund · Dec R3HitMissMiss
Mike Finch40 resolved calls
Mike Finch
Hear it — 14:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Guilherme Pat · Dec

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Pat in a close decision.

“me. Yeah, Stephen Aspel when he misses, he misses big. I think Gary Pat wins a close decision. I know you hate it. I don't give a [ __ ] That's all right.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · DecAsplund · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 20:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Steven Asplund

Fight result: Steven Asplund · Decision

Takes Asplund, hedging between a stoppage and a decision.

“I'm going to pick Steven Aspinal. He'll either get a TKO or win a decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to winAsplund · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called

9 of 11 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.